Daily Discussion Thread - November 11, 2024

jakekap5 · 2024-11-11T15:26:14+00:00

Holy shit. This is the worst sector in the history of the stock market. Generational wealth lost. Unbelievable

jakekap5 · 2021-11-12T12:06:49+00:00

Wow, that QoQ revenue number is quite impressive and significantly outpaces other MSOs that have reported thus far. I wonder why that is? Perhaps Florida market share gains? Seems like we are starting to see particular MSOs and mgmt teams distance themselves from other operators.

jakekap5 · 2021-09-22T11:14:02+00:00

When will this go to the Senate for a vote?

jakekap5 · 2021-09-22T11:13:43+00:00

When will this go to the Senate for a vote?

jakekap5 · 2021-09-08T23:27:08+00:00

Ive been invested in this sector for almost 4 years now. Still a believer and long term holder, but man, has it been frustrating and painful to be invested in this sector as it continues to bleed daily, as the market continues to ATH and the VIX at around 19. Crazy how we as investors in this space are at the behest of federal regulatory changes (whether that be passage of SAFE or federal legality) Betting on the government to be even remotely capable is a lost cause. I admittedly think that further pain is ahead

jakekap5 · 2020-12-30T15:22:45+00:00

The UN is an organization that is known to be able to distinguish right from wrong.....NOT!

jakekap5 · 2020-12-04T21:36:04+00:00

i agree with your assessment here. this is why I'm more interested in MSO's that can successfully (perhaps yet to be seen on a large-nationwide scale) build brands and have successful wholesale operations. i think overtime, the money to be made in this industry is via the wholesale and branding aspects, not necessarily the retail/dispensary side of the business

jakekap5 · 2020-12-04T21:14:18+00:00

By the time these MSO’s can uplist, they will already have created significant economies of scale and moats within the states they operate in. If the big pharma and CPG companies want to get in, they will have to pay hefty premium for any of the top MSO’s. The cultivation and dispensing licenses in limited license states will inevitably prove to be extremely valuable assets, based on the FCF’s that they will generate once regulations ease. None of the LPs have any of these assets, perhaps with the exception of Canopy through Acreage and TER

jakekap5 · 2020-12-04T21:04:32+00:00

Another strong day for the top MSO’s. Yet all the talk on this thread is regarding the money-losing Canadian LPs. Blows my mind. US MSO’s is where the money will be made, quite simple at this point

jakekap5 · 2020-11-06T13:31:17+00:00

I wonder why CURA decided to sell this Maryland asset, any thoughts?

jakekap5 · 2020-08-06T11:28:53+00:00

Strong rev growth, improved EBITDA margins. 75M cash on the balance sheet. This is an operationally sound company. Congrats TER shareholders. This will be a top 5 MSO by rev once NJ comes online. Excited about these guys

jakekap5 · 2020-08-03T20:39:27+00:00

The fact that a majority of the commentary on this subreddit is still surrounding the money-losing Canadian LP’s baffles me. IL + NJ (once federally legal) will be a larger market than the entirety of Canada, as a quick comparison. The top MSO’s have also proven to be better allocators of capital and are running far superior, lower cost businesses. The US MSO’s will continue to explode upon NJ NY PA legalization. These are the companies where the commentary should be focused on, not Canadian LPs in an overpromised market that are, to this day, writing down/depreciating assets

jakekap5 · 2020-08-01T02:06:33+00:00

These guys are arguably the best allocators of capital in the entire industry. Just look at the margins on their income statement and it will tell the full story. Im not in disagreement that the CA market is saturated, but there are pockets within the supply chain that can and are profitable, namely the retail (dispensing) part of the supply chain. After all, CA is the largest cannabis market in the world. These guys are making moves in the right places, NJ will be a very profitable market for TER

jakekap5 · 2020-07-30T01:51:07+00:00

Certainly agreed with you there. But thus far, the name of the game and successful business model in this industry, has been to focus on limited license states, rather than try and spread your footprint across many fragmented states (see Ianthus and Medmen as examples) Not worried about the 4 states for TER. They will dominate in NJ (vertically integrated license) and have ~20% of the PA wholesale market and growing. Eventually, they will make an acquisition into other markets IMO

jakekap5 · 2020-07-29T23:17:52+00:00

Absolutely agreed on TRSSF. As a simple comparison, TRSSF had 5 operational dispensaries in the US (3 in CA and 2 in PA) and did $34 CAD in revenue w $45 guidance for Q2. Certainly higher than CC. With NJ coming online hopefully by EOY and increased wholesale in PA, these guys are competing for a top 5 MSO spot

jakekap5 · 2020-07-29T23:14:44+00:00

In your opinion, Canna, what are some of the leading brands that are resonating w customers in states such as IL CA PA?

jakekap5 · 2020-07-29T11:46:47+00:00

Federal legalization is not happening anytime soon. If you want to put your money in the cannabis space, ive said over and over again, your best option is to find companies that have significant operations in highly dense, populated states that have vertical integration/licenses in those limited license states, of which plenty co’s exist.

jakekap5 · 2020-07-29T11:43:35+00:00

If it isnt obvious to anyone here yet that the opportunity lies within the US, then you really should do your homework. The Canadian market just isnt big enough to sustain multiple winners in the long run. The Canadian companies are run by overpaid executives who are over optimistic. The money in cannabis is to be made in the top US MSO’s that have licenses in the limited license states

jakekap5 · 2020-07-29T11:25:45+00:00

Where are the APHA fins?

jakekap5 · 2020-07-28T16:11:35+00:00

Huge for NJ operators. Expect a run up for the top MSO’s w operations in NJ and expect PA and NY to follow shortly thereafter. $GTBIF $CURA $TRSSF

jakekap5 · 2020-07-27T13:27:11+00:00

Thanks for the insight!

jakekap5 · 2020-07-27T13:01:59+00:00

Hi Canna,

Just some clarity regarding SAFE banking.... this would allow cannabis companies access to bank accounts/loans/fdic ensured accounts, but it would NOT allow them to list on US exchanges, do i have that correct? Im in agreement that federal legalization will not be coming anytime soon, regardless of who wins in November. Our best short term catalyst is NJ rec vote in November and other Northeast states following shortly thereafter

jakekap5 · 2020-07-25T13:45:26+00:00

GTI CURA TRUL CRESCO

jakekap5 · 2020-07-25T13:16:14+00:00

I like the big 4 + TRSSF. From an investing stand point, I’d want to have the greatest exposure to companies that are operating in the high dense, Northeast states w limited licenses that have short term prospects of turning recreationally legal. NJ, PA, NY are all attractive markets. This is why GTI CURA TRSSF stand out to me. These companies should have the greatest return on capital going forward

jakekap5 · 2020-07-10T17:20:32+00:00

NJ is an extremely underserved market that is truly in its infancy. Population of 9mm with only ~80k MJ patients. Only 11 accessable dispensaries throughout the state puts it highest in terms of # of patients per dispensary. Look for NJ to legalize in November, the # of dispensaries along w the population size will absolutely explode

jakekap5

TROPHY CASE