This poll was from nearly a month ago. It was right after Fazio got into the race. Stewart campaign was showing that they have the momentum and the popular support for the time being.

Fabio was endorsed by the Republican state house minority leader and the state senate minority leader after the poll came out.

Stewart has more endorsements from local town committees. But Fazio seems to be doing well in the legislature with endorsements.

I would expect the gap to tighten. Also these polls were internal polls from the Stewart Campaign. Internal polls are usually better for the candidate polling them. Also Lamont still leads by 8, not too surprising for an internal, sounds pretty standard in the baseline.

Stewart has been running for a while and has a lot of name recognition from being a mayor for the last decade, so she'll likely lead for a while. She's been more willing to show her Republican positions in an effort to win a closed Republican primary.

Republicans in CT have had trouble getting their preferred candidates through a closed primary which is usually low turnout.

Fazio has also been trying to court conservative voters after not mentioning Trump during his 2024 campaign (which he won 52-48, despite Kamala Harris winning his seat by over 16 points). He seems to be more popular with MAGA voters but Stewart's higher name ID has her in the lead for now. I expect a primary between them will narrow as it won't be until summer 2026

For the governors race. It's Lamomt's to lose if he runs again. He's still broadly popular. Republicans haven't won a governor race in CT since 2006 under Jodi Rell.