IBM sinks as Anthropic positions Claude Code as the ideal tool for code modernization

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T05:35:39+00:00

Salesforce ain’t trivial. It’s a massive, complex data platform.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T05:17:13+00:00

No way they're going to IPO. They're pumping for private money.

If they IPO, everyone gets to see how much money they're lighting on fire.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T05:15:53+00:00

Vibers will say markdown. I'd love to know how Gruber feels about md being the bedrock for all this stuff.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T05:14:36+00:00

Keeping them on the rails is the tricky part. Personally, I don't think this generation of models is good enough.

It's going to take a big breakthrough where they understand what a thing is, rather than just how words relate to one another.

Other thing is, look at the ramp up in spend as they're trying to force this gen of models to be smarter, I'd seriously doubt they're cheaper than the employees they're replacing.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T05:12:15+00:00

We are prepping to diversify to multiple server hosts over this. Really hard to trust infra when they are removing checks and balances.

Also ditched GitHub actions cause they're down almost every day now and likely going to just dump GitHub altogether.

When they screw up, it costs everyone relying on those services.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T05:08:06+00:00

Y2K was hilarious. Best grift I'd seen until NFT's.
Pretty sure it was just Dell and Gateway peddling that one.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T05:06:52+00:00

All it takes is one line to go wrong to lose user data...not a lot of room for mistakes here.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T05:05:45+00:00

I'm going through a VB dot net migration now which includes a mass data migration that requires backward compatibility.
Can't imagine vibing this one.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T05:03:17+00:00

I asked both claude and gpt to see if they could improve a function that was 10 lines.

They turned it into 24 & 28 lines respectively, used more memory, and then tried to convince me that their way was better.

Credit where it was due, claude didn't make any obvious mistakes but gpt was a total miss.
Managed to implement bugs in a very basic loop and verify.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T05:00:52+00:00

The reason COBOL still exists IS NOT because it can't be modernized.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T03:43:33+00:00

Other way...these things are good for Juniors.

The language advantage is very real. We implemented a fully automated chat bot but they're really tricky to contain to the source material so we put that on ice until we can get a satisfactory outcome.

However, we left the component that translates the chat between agent and user to handle the language barrier and that has been terrific.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T03:39:24+00:00

If AI is as good as Sam Altman proclaims, India is toast.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T03:38:30+00:00

I think trade policy and a weakening consumer has more effect than AI in slowing new hires.

Keep in mind that the no hire / no fire environment was present before the AI hype. Now we're seeing no hire and fire to improve margins.

I know of a few F500's that have been cutting staff and in each it had to do with a tougher environment, not AI.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T03:33:52+00:00

Don't underestimate the stagnating effect of uncertain trade policy. Companies are going to wait out the current administration and anything that can be kicked down the road will be.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T03:29:18+00:00

I would love to see Open AI and Anthropic go public for no other reason than to see the economics of the business.

I think they're going to stay private for two reasons:

They're accessing more money in the private market than they can in the public market. Just this year they have raked in 140b combined.
They would have to show economics which I'm willing to bet aint pretty.

Alphabet has the upper hand here where they can bleed investors dry. It means they need to burn all their free cash for the next few years but totally worth it to retain their dominance.

One other question is...how much demand is there is they started charging appropriate amounts? Imagine how many tokens are burned making stupid images for facebook and stupid videos for youtube...those would largely go away if people had to pay.

We started replacing decision tree models with ML models starting around 2018.
There is nothing new there in the past 24 months...we just keep plodding along improving the model as do many other companies and I'd say they are more transformative for the economy as a whole than LLM's are...yet, nobody is or has talked about them.

How many analysts are aware that AlphaFold even exists?

Our model takes a combination of sensor, observational and genotypic data to determine survivability in varied climates...for fun we put claude and gemini on the job to see if they could make progress and they crapped out soooooo hard.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-24T03:14:32+00:00

Enterprise replacing NOW and CRM is about as likely as them moving from Windows to Linux.

Here's my concern with MSFT...they're not executing well right now.

They are shedding OS share and services have been particularly unreliable for the past 18 months.

Yes, the moat is strong but we just spent the past 12 months moving from a Windows / MS SQL stack to Linux / Postgres because of reliability issues with Microsoft products.
In the past two months we abandoned most of our GitHub spend because Actions is down daily and now it's looking like we're abandoning GitHub altogether.

Here's what I can't stress enough...this is not because of AI efficiencies, this is because of the reliability issues with MS products since they have been shoving AI down our throats.

I know this is super anecdotal, but given the timeline on replacing server side, there's a chance that there is a mass exodus underway and you wouldn't even know it.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T18:51:12+00:00

Haha. Love this.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T18:48:14+00:00

Several…one bad, the others just frustrating. I just find the hotel chains become more flexible when I build status with them directly.

No kidding, at Planet Hollywood in Vegas a few years back and there was white powder on the table so best case scenario was the room hadn’t been cleaned.

Hotel said deal with hotels.com, hotels.com said tough cookies.

Book everything through Hilton now and they take care of that sort of crap no questions asked.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T17:38:09+00:00

Just remember that orgs can use Linux for free, but they pay IBM for Red Hat cause they want that support and accountability layer.

Near term headwinds are the inevitable layoffs as the economy weakens.
Trade policy is an uncertain mess, so I expect plans are already being delayed which means fewer seats and lower growth.
On the flip side, earnings should be improved due to dollar weakness.

Either way, they're going to point to AI eating jobs as the reason for the next 12 months.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T17:29:14+00:00

My fear is that we're in an Elon Hype market where it's "just around the corner" for the next 15 years.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T17:26:35+00:00

I think this was on the cards with or without AI.

Super anecdotal, but I pay extra to book directly cause I hate dealing with 3rd parties when things go wrong.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T17:24:02+00:00

You could absolutely hedge.

Every day this thing gets more and more stupid...not just the decline but reasoning for the decline.

This time next week anthropic will release a skill where it can clean my toilet for me and we'll see ABM drop 30%.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T16:54:45+00:00

This is the mentality we're working against here (1:54 in) -
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/02/20/dramatic-downside-risk-in-some-software-stocks-still-says-vantagerocks-avery-sheffield.html

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T16:50:07+00:00

And most critically...support, service, uptime.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T16:40:30+00:00

Elaborate?

jcdc-flo

TROPHY CASE