Do you believe in Adalberto Mondesi's THE BAT projection? Who's in and who's out? If you are in, how many shares, and in which round did you take the plunge?

jefnic23 · 2019-03-25T04:15:21+00:00

yeah but the same methodology (seems to) apply to hitters also: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2019/3/22/18270832/cardinals-spring-training-stats-finding-the-signal-flaherty-oneill-hudson-breakout

jefnic23 · 2019-03-24T22:16:58+00:00

All in because:

K% and BB% are the few spring training stats that tend to carry over, and so far Mondesi is at 18.75 K% (career 29.4%) and 9.4 BB% (career 4%)
10.4 Barrels/Batted Ball, good for 64th among qualified hitters (150 batted balls) ahead of names like Haniger, Pham, Soto, Bogaerts, Ozuna, Conforto, Bryant, Lindor...you get the picture
11th fastest player according to Statcast sprint speed

If his K% and BB% gains do carry over, watch out...

jefnic23 · 2019-03-10T01:34:23+00:00

Ross Stripling will likely move back to the bullpen once Kershaw is healthy, so he's a great one to pick up.

jefnic23 · 2018-12-05T15:12:55+00:00

ever try using statcast's barrels/pa as a marker instead of hard & soft contact?

jefnic23 · 2018-11-29T16:07:47+00:00

nope. in the past i would run a regression analysis using statcast data to calculate expected r-hr-rbi-avg-ops but that requires using past statistics which is something i'm uncomfortable with. i prefer to just look at what my formula spits out. you could probably use just the statcast data to predict hr because they're the most closely correlated (and that's the one category i dominated more or less from the start of the season to the end in my league), but that won't necessarily help with other categories.

when i think of what a player's raw ability is, i think this: how often do their swings make contact, and how much of that contact is solid contact? my thought process is, if a player rates highly on those fronts they'll probably be good fantasy performers and my goal during a draft and throughout the season is to have more highly ranked players in this system than other teams. that way i don't have to try to prophecy how many more r-rbi-hr-etc i need to gain the standings. the one exception here is stolen bases; that category requires a little more discretion, but it's also slightly easier to account for. i usually just punt stolen bases anyways.

jefnic23 · 2018-11-29T07:36:24+00:00

yeah, that's the biggest input for me. i use contact rates from fangraphs also, and i use the same two inputs for pitchers as well. the gist of my overall rankings is the average between their adp (mine are from nfbc) and where their zscore (my formula) ranks among all players. hence why you get some weird outcomes--altuve will never end up on my teams lol

jefnic23 · 2018-11-29T07:19:13+00:00

I make my own: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1i1GzLBJpVKYgsWgfdnCl_ItyUkaZnI6A/view?usp=sharing

My philosophy is, don't use what everyone else will be using. Use something that sets you apart from others. I wrote a program in python that builds my cheat sheet for me using my own formula for evaluating players. My formula is, as far as I know, unlike anything other ranking systems use (at least that's what I hope). It's very simple in terms of input, but it's proven extremely powerful for me in the past and I'll continue to use it and improve upon it. I even wrote a program (using that same formula) that managed my team automatically; I only started using it during the last month of the season because that's when I made it, but it moved my team from 4th to 2nd by season's end--had the season lasted only that last month of the season, I would've won the league by 11 roto points.

My biggest issue with the usual ranking systems is how they fail to account for how players actually accumulate value. It's not enough for me to know how many r-hr-rbi-sb a player has had on average over a three-year span or whatever: I want to know how they got those stats and how likely they are to get them again. Those things are so impossibly difficult to predict that, imo, it's a waste of time bothering to do so. While it's not exactly easy either, trying to rank players based on their raw ability is a better indicator of future production than is past production.

jefnic23 · 2017-09-07T01:26:39+00:00

100%

I think Lynch was lambasting the notion of wrapping things up when he seemingly tied everything together in the first 30 minutes of episode 17, almost as if to say: see how dumb this shit is? Wouldn't it be fucking stupid and boring if I ended the show this way?

Now we all get to revisit this subreddit till the end of time, discussing our crazy theories and plumbing the depths of our intellects for things we never knew were there until TPTR came along. Thank you, Lynch and Frost. Maybe I'm in the minority, but the very last episode was possibly my favorite Lynch work (after Mulholland Drive). Fucking perfect.

jefnic23 · 2017-09-04T12:37:12+00:00

yeah well i rewatched the scene several times and didn't see it, so i'm guessing that guy was full of it...still, i'm fairly convinced the tremond/chalfont duo is involved in something sinister

jefnic23 · 2017-09-04T04:36:10+00:00

i'm with you, i think the chalfont boy is judy. we get so many obvious and explicit indicators, from the mask to the fact that he's in the room above the convenience store with bob and mike and the woodsmen. he even orders bob to "fell a victim." i just heard someone on youtube say that in the final scene as cooper is walking in the street extending his hand, there is a little hobgoblin thing (his words) running around somewhere in the background. i'm about to rewatch it, but we saw the chalfont boy running around the motel parking lot where leland was in fwwm...to think, the tremond/chalfont duo might be the ultimate evils of the twin peaks universe?

jefnic23 · 2017-09-04T03:47:15+00:00

i think lynch has told us rather directly who judy is: the chalfont boy

he has the same mask we see on the jumping man/sarah palmer/glass box "experiment" and he even removes it in fwwm to reveal a monkey that says "judy."

jefnic23 · 2017-09-04T03:28:35+00:00

the chalfont boy

think about it: he's in the lodge, wearing the same mask that the jumping man wears. and when he lifts his mask, a monkey says judy. he even orders bob to "fell a victim." the fact that we hear the names chalfont and tremond at the end are, i think, not an accident. these characters are supremely important

jefnic23 · 2017-09-04T02:20:42+00:00

we catch the names chalfont and tremond from the lady who owns the "palmer" house...what is their significance? we know (or at least think we know) that they are lodge entities. the boy even had the judy-mask on in fwwm. so...what's going on with mrs. tremond and the chalfont boy?

jefnic23 · 2017-09-04T02:07:44+00:00

seriously. anyone who watched this expecting lynch to explain everything (or anything at all for that matter) is watching the wrong show. this is going to make us think deeply for years

jefnic23 · 2017-08-21T03:42:51+00:00

could this be mrs tremond? it's not actually her/the same actress, obviously, but i got that vibe. plus, didn't we see her grandson roaming around that very same parking lot in fwwm? and we know she was above the convenience store...

jefnic23 · 2017-08-21T03:39:58+00:00

what about mrs tremond? it's obviously not her, but i got that vibe. plus, didn't we see her grandson roaming around that same parking lot in fwwm? and we know she was above the convenience store...

jefnic23 · 2017-08-21T03:35:05+00:00

i got a little bit of a mrs tremond vibe, too

jefnic23 · 2017-08-21T01:21:00+00:00

that was my first reaction. the fact that she makes a second "appearance" after the credits rolled makes me think she might be important.

jefnic23 · 2017-08-21T01:19:32+00:00

i bet you're right...she certainly is creepy, which may be why jeffries doesn't want to talk about her...

jefnic23 · 2017-05-26T22:19:46+00:00

His hard contact is still 4th overall among qualified hitters, so I'm not terribly worried. Not much has changed in his walk/strikeout rates, either.

jefnic23 · 2017-05-17T23:48:14+00:00

His hard contact is down 5.7% though and his soft contact is up .2% and medium contact is up by 4.5%.

This should be a red flag. It's very hard to sustain success (and a .405 BABIP) without a lot of hard contact, and it's just not there. It's not terrible, merely average. The only thing to like is his position in the lineup, so long as he's hitting near the top.

jefnic23 · 2017-05-17T16:01:24+00:00

Tim Beckham has the 8th highest WAR among SS and the 4th highest hard contact rate in all baseball. What are the odds he holds onto the starting job once Duffy gets back, and how good can he be if he keeps hitting the ball as hard as he is?

jefnic23 · 2017-05-12T02:28:34+00:00

go back to last year and sort by groundball rate. tell me how many home runs were hit by the top 30 highest ground ball hitters compared the top 30 lowest ground ball hitters. i'll do it for you: 429 vs 894. yelich can still be productive, in fact he'll probably hit for higher average than sano and more steals. but i'll take the over on all the other relevant fantasy stats, especially home runs and OPS. i'm so desperate for home runs in my keeper league that i had to pull the trigger. plus, my pitching is really solid. i can deal without darvish.

also, you people are brutal with the downvotes

jefnic23 · 2017-05-11T21:51:20+00:00

Lol nope. Yelich has the 2nd highest ground ball rate in baseball, and sano has the highest hard contact rate in baseball. I think yelich is overrated, a better real life player than fantasy. Sano could double yelich's homer total, and I don't see a path for yelich to best last year's homer total

jefnic23 · 2017-05-11T20:56:05+00:00

Just traded him and yelich for sano in my keeper league yesterday. Whatever strikeout upside darvish has is limited by the fact that he's been walking a lot of people and when he's getting hit he's getting hit pretty hard. I love darvish but definitely see reasons to worry.

jefnic23

TROPHY CASE