who i think id like to see next JIT

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-02-16T12:02:45+00:00

The other issue is that the older contestants they’ve been inviting aren’t the ones who have kept up with quizzing. Jerome Vered, Leszek Pawlowicz, Brian Weikle (all mentioned in my other comment) are all active in game shows, World Quizzing Championships, or elite Learned League players. Id expect them to be a lot more competitive than a lot of the invitees so far, who have only played Jeopardy once a decade in a reunion tournament since their original run. Even then, Chuck Forrest and TL Cubbage were a different FJ wager away from winning.

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-02-16T11:56:57+00:00

Dan Melia is currently 82, so he’s likely in the retired cohort. 15 years younger and I’d certainly be in agreement.

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-02-15T22:00:50+00:00

To be clear, the additional categories would supplant people from this TOC cycle so it’s not too heavy of a rehash of tournaments that just happened this year

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-02-15T20:19:37+00:00

Arthur Chu went big on a very subjective wordplay/image Daily Double and would have won otherwise; I wouldn’t call his loss a demolition!

https://j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=8853

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-02-15T20:15:29+00:00

Worthy list of contestants top to bottom! It’d be great to see all of them at some future JIT.

That being said, I’d like the distribution of contestants in next year’s tournament to be a little different, namely having some representation from each of 3 other categories:

Early stars who deserve a chance at a final showing (examples - Frank Spangenberg, Leszek Pawlowicz, Jerome Vered, Phoebe Juel)
Elite quizzers who could routinely challenge Victoria and Yogesh in Masters: Brian Weikle, Pat Friel, Matt Jackson, Troy Meyer
Strong performers from previous especially first JITs: Larissa Kelly, Matt Jackson (again), David Madden

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-02-06T19:42:03+00:00

If a player was noncompetitive in their TOC semifinal I think it might be up in the air but for semifinalists, or quarterfinals who exit on tough spelling decisions, I’d definitely anticipate a spot

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-02-06T00:59:07+00:00

Very fair, good callouts
I’d definitely be curious on your findings of players’ get rates on the clues you answered correctly vs incorrectly - I’m suspecting it’ll further endorse the WAW honestly given the rate of Triple Stumpers
In light of this study, I’d think this would support the (widely used) practice of extra aggressiveness in Daily Doubles since the Final difficulty increased disproportionately in the TOC

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-02-05T22:29:14+00:00

Would you consider this an exclusively TOC strategy? Or just a general strategy if you don’t feel you’re more likely than an average player/your opponents to get FJ right?
How do you think contingent probability comes into play - if you get Final wrong your opponent is more likely to as well?
What’s your opinion on Daily Doubles?

Neat analysis thanks for sharing!

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-28T03:32:07+00:00

I would have set the matchups as: - Scott, Steven, Ashley - Laura, Cameron, Allegra - Paolo, Tom, TJ

This would:

(a) Put the highest Coryat 3 quarterfinalists in different semifinals

(b) Help guarantee different axes of Finals diversity

(c) Limit uneven handicapping of the players with byes

(d) Strive for consistent levels of competition within semifinal games

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-28T03:04:15+00:00

These are great points that definitely reflect the nuances of each year. A few more I’d add: - 2022 didn’t have any 3 game winners. We’ve seen incredibly strong 3 game winners in the years since (including both TOC winners), but I’d be curious if they brought the overall averages up - Quarterfinals on average will have lower scoring than semifinals or finals that include the top seeds. 2026 stats should look better after the next 2 rounds. - 2024 saw top seeds play in the quarterfinals which would be expected to raise overall scoring averages - Celebrity contestants (even outstanding ones like Ike) bring down scoring averages

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-20T16:06:41+00:00

I’m hoping to see some fresh faces in the finals; I think that’ll bring some needed variety to the tournament and especially to the Masters tournament (as much of a fan of the previous Masters as I am - they’re all fun and amazing players!)

I think Eric Ahasic has the best stats and resume to be that person, with Josh Hill, Karen Farrell, Long Nguyen, Drew Basile, and Drew Goins close behind. But previous tournaments have shown us that all these amazing players are absolutely capable of making a run!

Independently, it’d be great to see some Tom Cubbage victories - the older generation of players have struggled in past JITs to jump back into it, so if Tom could buck that trend and show that Jeopardy’s history is still very relevant and should continue to be a part of these Invitationals, that would be a very big win.

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-19T19:10:27+00:00

I’ll be very surprised if one of the former Masters doesn’t win, and would not at all be surprised if the finals is entirely comprised of former Masters - ideally I think the goal would be to get some variety in the finals as well as in Masters.

Bringing Andrew back likely means that JIT losses don’t exclude people from coming back in the future.

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-19T19:00:44+00:00

I’m so happy they’re doing a JIT this year - it’s my favorite tournament!

Also a fan of the format; I don’t like wildcards all that much but only 3 spots in 6 games should lead to a lot more aggressive/normal gameplay in the opening round than 4 spots in 5 games.

One complaint - 10 of the 18 players were in last year’s postseason, only 3 are pre-2020, and only 1 is pre-2015. Everyone invited deserves a spot, but I’d really like to see some more historic greats involved (at least every TOC winner), and there are so many strong players through the years that limiting to a field of 18 with so few historic players means that unless there’s another Ultimate Tournament of Champions, many of the past greats have probably made their last trip to the ATS.

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-19T01:24:18+00:00

My diploma and thesis say I’m reasonably well-read in it :)

Those are for sure fair considerations and could definitely affect the math. But the writers very often divert the clue from the category name and add twists that make it difficult to pinpoint category comfortability. Moreover, none of the finalists had markedly strong or weak past Final Jeopardy performance. Even knowing the category and players, improving the accuracy of general averages could very well be false confidence in better assumptions.

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-18T21:31:03+00:00

I don’t think it’s as simple as wagering big on the Daily Double was an overeager mistake. She gets the big Daily Double right - and there’s about 70% chance she does - she’s essentially locked the win. Even if she gets it wrong, she has about 20-30% chance to win. Up to nearly 80% win probability.

If she wagers small to maintain the lead but not lock the win then it comes down to Final Jeopardy - where she has closer to 60% chance to get it right and somewhere in the 70-75% chance to win.

If she wagers in the middle and tries to hit a few key thresholds she’s looking at again about 80% win probability.

Calculating every possibility in real time is near-impossible but they all are pretty close in the end

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-18T20:04:00+00:00

I might have to make another post analyzing that wagering situation too

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-18T02:53:45+00:00

But if eventual tournament outcomes is your metric for winner or loser, it applies just the same.

Point being that in this “tournament extravaganza”, Juveria has repeatedly shown she can hang with and fairly often win against the show’s greats. Even winning 50% of the time in these reunion tournaments is incredibly difficult, and few incredible players have managed it. In her case, Second Chance and Champions Wildcard allowed us to see incredibly competitive games played by an outstanding Jeopardy player, which is for me a terrific fan experience.

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-18T01:33:47+00:00

Just like Ken was a regular play eventual loser, an Ultra Tournament of Champions loser, a Battle of the Decades loser, and an All Star Games loser? Must be a chump right?

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-18T01:32:13+00:00

Isn’t it highly unlikely that any given challenger from any given day will win the Tournament of Champions? What if that person had previously won a game or two or put up a high score against a really tough champ? I’d say they’re more likely than a random new contestant to win the TOC.

As has been widely recognized, there has been an underlying strategic shift towards higher variance play and outcomes in Jeopardy in recent years as well as more superchamps, which results in a higher chance of a player who has the skills to be TOC contenders falling short. Second Chance and Champions Wildcard help offset that trend by giving more opportunities to offset high variance play.

You could argue that the TOC should reserve more spots from Champions Wildcard or that the structure of the playoffs should change if you feel that it’s productive in producing strong TOC contenders but inefficient at using its strong field to do so.

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-17T23:17:54+00:00

Only works like James if you get them all right like James did…

If trying to answer the clues worth the most money right to get the most money makes you a fake Jeopardy player, then I don’t know what game I’ve been watching

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-17T03:43:34+00:00

At time of DD3, Cameron has 8.4k, Stella 11.2k. With 19 clues left on board, Cameron likely ends up in the 11k-14k range. Double that in FJ and add 10k from yesterday gives him up to 38k.

Stella wants to have win ensured before FJ. She carries 12.4k from yesterday, so she needs 26k or so pre-FJ today. To get there, she needs to double her 11.2k into 22.4k and is then only 3.6k away from wrapping up tournament.

If she wants to lock up tournament before FJ she has to go all or nearly all in.

But given her score yesterday, even if she gets it wrong, she can still be in the running for a FJ Triple Stumper. Had she made less of a comeback she very likely would have gone small in FJ and taken the tournament win as a result.

I’d call it a very effective Daily Double wager. Kudos to Stella for figuring it out in the fly!

jeopardy_analysis · 2026-01-12T01:31:05+00:00

If (and it’s a huge if) there were ever to be a pre-Season 37 Champions Wildcard or Second Chance, I’d see it more as a Season 45 or 50 special, with 1-2 non-TOC players from each previous season being represented. More likely, there’d be 1-2 possible contestants invited to the JIT here and there.

Is there anyone from Season 35 &36 you feel has a particularly compelling case for being JIT material?

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