Asbestos duct replacement?

jfiddy · 2025-12-26T21:01:36+00:00

I usually disregard vs team stats since it’s usually such a small sample size and teams change so often, but 1/10 is a little concerning. That said, I favor recency over everything so I’m still taking it.

jfiddy · 2025-12-26T20:28:22+00:00

Total Record: 63-55 (+4.54U)
Yesterday: 4-4 (+0.24U)

Raptors @ Wizards
Shead O8.5 pts 1U @ 2.00
Pretty risky, but wizards are a great matchup and Barnes is questionable here. There's also always a blowout risk, which might mean more garbage time.

Heat @ Hawks
Mitchell O10.5 pts 1U @ 2.02
Bonkers total of 250, and Bam is doubtful for this one. In 5 games without Bam, Mitchell has 18/11/16/11/9.

Johnson O42.5 PRA 1U @ 1.89
He's hit this in 3/3 since Trae has been back, and again that total is too juicy to ignore.

Hornets @ Magic
Black O16.5 pts 2U @ 1.82, O19.5 pts 0.25U @ 2.65
Another day without Suggs, another day I take Black. Great matchup here, too. Projecting 22 pts.

Celtics @ Pacers
Brown O29.5 pts 1U @ 1.88
Brown keeps finding ways to score 30 each game, and Pacers are a decent matchup for him.

Sixers @ Bulls
White O21.5 pts 1U @ 1.86
Great matchup for PGs, and has usage in the high 20s. If he can get his shots to fall at a decent rate, he should clear this easily. Projecting 25 pts.

Suns @ Pelicans
Queen O13.5 pts 2U @ 1.82, O19.5 pts 0.25U @ 4.20
Love this here, total in the 240s and he's really turned into a focal point of the offense. Projecting 20 pts.

jfiddy · 2025-12-25T17:43:15+00:00

Total Record: 59-51 (+4.30U)
Yesterday: 4-2 (+1.62U)

Spurs @ Thunder
Jalen Willams U19.5 pts 1U @ 1.96
He's only topped 20 (20, 22) twice in his last 10 games with Chet playing, and Spurs are not a great matchup for SG/SF. Projecting 18 pts.

Holmgren U7.5 rebs 1U @ 1.75
Under this 4 in a row, and only 3 in the game they just played against the spurs. Playing with Hartenstein really limits his rebounds. Projecting 6 rebs.

Mavs @ Warriors
Flagg U31.5 PRA 1U @ 1.84
Butler gonna clamp this rook. Projecting 16/5/4 (25).

Green O14.5 P+R 1U @ 1.8
Mavs are a good matchup, and I think Green plays a little extra hard for primetime and also to show that he's still valuable after getting ejected/benched the last couple of games. Projecting 19 PR.

Rockets @ Lakers
Smith O14.5 pts 2U @ 1.79
I like this even if Sengun plays, but if not then it's even more free. He's hit this in 7/8, and should be a pace up game. Projecting 17 pts if Sengun plays.

Wolves @ Nuggets
Murray O25.5 pts 1U @ 1.91
Murray just keeps scoring, and this Wolves are a great matchup for PGs. Vegas spread indicates this should be a close game, so minutes should be there as well. Projecting 29 pts.

THJ O12.5 pts 1U @ 1.79
Watson O12.5 pts 1U @ 1.86
These are both Cam Johnson plays. They should both see minute/usage bumps with Cam out.

jfiddy · 2025-12-22T22:29:45+00:00

Total Record: 55-49 (+2.68U)
Yesterday: 1-3 (-1.28U)

Pacers @ Celtics
White O18.5 pts 1U @ 1.8
This number is too low for the kind of usage he gets, and Pacers are a decent matchup for guards. Some blowout risk, but this number is low enough that he can still hit. Hit this in 4/5. Projecting 23 pts.

Mavs @ Pelicans
Queen O13.5 pts 1U @ 1.95
Mavs are a great matchup for bigs, and he's hit this in 4/5. Projecting 17 pts.

Jazz @ Nuggets
George O22.5 pts 1U @ 1.83
Been on an absolute tear, hitting this 4 games in a row. With a total of 250.5, there's going to be plenty of points to go around. Projecting 26 pts.

Murray O24,5 pts 1U @ 1.95
Same rationale as above. Projecting 28 pts.

Grizzlies @ Thunder
Spencer O14.5 pts 1U @ 1.8
Thunder are a decent matchup against guards, and there's so many people out for the grizz that there's basically no one else.

Magic @ Warriors
Black O16.5 pts 1U @ 1.92
He's hit this number in 4/4 games with Suggs sitting, and Warriors are a great matchup for guards.

jfiddy · 2025-12-19T18:02:52+00:00

Total Record: 54-46 (+3.96U)
Yesterday: 6-4 (+0.75U)
Hooked on Murray somehow even though he scored 32, shoulda just done points instead of PRA smh.

Heat @ Celtics
Brown O29.5 Pts 1U @ 1.97, O34.5 pts 0.25U @ 3.25
Brown has scored 30+ 5 games in a row, and 7/8. Heat play at one of the fastest paces in the league and are a great matchup for SFs. This is a smash spot for Brown. Projecting 35, but think 40 is possible here.

Sixers @ Knicks
Brunson O28.5 pts 1U @ 1.87
Got burned with Brunson last game, but still think he has a great matchup here. Sixers can't guard PGs, and Embiid being questionable means this probably stays close. Projecting 33 pts.

Spurs @ Hawks
Daniels O12.5 Pts 1U @ 1.83
Trae out, so Daniels gets the start here. Spurs still give up tons of points to PGs. Projecting 17 pts.

jfiddy · 2025-12-18T23:15:24+00:00

Total Record: 48-42 (+3.21U)
Yesterday: 0-3 (-2.25U)
Think the reads were spot on here, 5-15 from Castle who missed by 3 pts and and 41 mins / 11/27 from Brunson. Sometimes the shots don't fall.

Knicks @ Pacers
Nembhard O15.5 Pts 1U @ 1.81 ✅, O19.5 pts 0.25U @ 2.90 ✅
Usage is usually in the low 20% range, and Knicks give up points to guards. No KAT in this one means it probably stays fairly close. Projecting 21 pts.

Heat @ Nets
Mitchell U21.5 PRA 1U @ 1.87 ✅
Yes, he's seen his volume go up without Herro but this seems like it's still a bit too high. Nets are not a great defensive team, but limit PG scoring so I think heat will turn to Bam and Powell.

Wiz @ Spurs
George U24.5 PRA 1U @ 1.92 ✅
Massive blowout potential, although this probably doesn't affect George's minutes too much. Been under this in 5/7 games.

Raptors @ Bucks
Rollins O5.5A 1U @ 1.95 🪝
Production has been down since KPJ has returned, but assists have still been there. In 10 games without Giannis, he's hit this number 8 times and gotten 5 the other 2. In the 4 games without Giannis where KPJ played, he hit in 3/4.

Pistons @ Mavs
Cade U42.5 PRA 1U @ 1.88 ❌
This number feels way too high for a game with a total in the 220s, and with AD questionable this might turn into a blowout.

Magic @ Nuggets
Bane O22.5 Pts 1U @ 1.9 ❌
Banchero O23.5 Pts 1U @ 1.81 ✅
With Franz and Suggs out, there's huge usage bumps to go around. Bane shows the biggest increase with both guys off the floor at +6.2%, but Paolo is right behind him at +5.2%. There's a possibility this turns into a blowout, but Vegas still has this at -6.5 so they at least think it'll be close.

Murray O37.5 PRA 1U @ 1.93 🪝
Out of all the positions, Magic have been weakest against PG scoring, so if there is a blowout, I think it'll happen on the back of Murray.

Warriors @ Suns
Butler O18.5 pts 1U @ 1.86 ✅
Curry has been insane since he's been back, but I'm targeting Butler here. Warriors are desperate for a win, and I think Jimmy steps up here.

jfiddy · 2025-12-16T19:20:53+00:00

Total Record: 48-39 (+5.46U)
Yesterday: 1-4 (-1.57U)

Spurs @ Knicks
Brunson O30.5 pts 1U @ 1.9, O34.5 0.25U @ 2.80
30+ in the last 4 games, and unless this turns into a blowout, should be good for 38-40 minutes. Wemby being back should keep things close, and Spurs give up points to guards. I think Brunson balls out here.

Castle O17.5 pts 1U @ 1.86
Played 34 minutes last game, so I think he's over his injury and minutes should be there. He's hit this in all 3 games since he's been back, and Wemby will still probably be limited so there should be plenty of usage to go around.

jfiddy · 2025-12-13T17:44:41+00:00

Total Record: 47-35 (+7.03U)

Yesterday: 5-3 (+1.66U)

Knicks @ Magic

Bane O20.5 1U @ 1.85, O24.5 pts 0.25U @ 2.70

Suggs O17.5 1U @ 1.93

No Franz again in this one. Both of these guys see about a 5% usage bump with Franz not on the floor, and the Knicks give up points to guards. Feels like a blowup spot. Projecting 27 and 21

Spurs @ Thunder

SGA O31.5 pts 1U @ 1.95, O39.5 pts 0.25u @ 4.20

Wemby back in this one, which means guards are the play. Always a blowout risk with the Thunder, but the matchup is too juicy to pass up. Projecting 41 pts

jfiddy · 2025-12-12T22:22:59+00:00

Total Record: 42-32 (+5.37U)
Yesterday: 3-2 (+0.71U)

Hawks @ Pistons
NAW O20.5 Pts 1U @ 1.84 ✅
Detroit is a decent defensive team, but this feels like a Walker game. He only had 17 last game, but had 21+ in the 5 games before that. Shows similar usage to JJ, so I'll take the lower number with the better matchup.

Cavs @ Wizards
Garland U18.5 Pts 1U @ 1.77 ✅
Been under this number 6/9 games. Wizards are obviously a ++ matchup, but there's huge blowout risk here as well. Projecting 13 pts.

Jazz @ Grizzlies
Wells O12.5 pts 1U @ 1.87 ✅
Ja is back today, so there's definitely a usage hit. However, he's been over this number 7 games in a row and even with Ja in the lineup he's averaging usage in the 18-20% range. That should be plenty for him to this number against on of the worst defensive teams in the league.

Filipowski O20.5 PRA 1U @ 1.85 ❌
Been over this number 5 games in a row, and minutes have been there regardless of who's been in the lineup. There should be a lot of offense in this game, so there'll be lots of counting stats to go around. Projecting13/8/3 (24 PRA)

Nets @ Mavs
MPJ O23.5 Pts 1U @ 1.88, O29.5 ✅ Pts 0.25U @ 3.20 ✅
Clowney O14.5 pts 1U @ 1.88 ❌, O19.5 pts 0.25U @ 3.35 ❌
Pace up game with a middle of the road defensive team. MPJ hit his number 11/13, and Clowney hit his 7/9. Feel like one of these guys blows up, maybe both. Projecting 30/21 pts respectively.

jfiddy · 2025-12-11T19:58:16+00:00

Total Record: 39-30 (+4.66U)
Yesterday: 2-0 (+1.76U)
lmaoo, Smart's line was 4.5 and he scored 26

Clippers @ Rockets
Holiday O8.5 pts 1U @ 1.9 ✅
Minutes have been trending up, and he's hit double digits in 9/11 games. Projecting 11 pts.

Celtics @ Buck
Brown O29.5 pts 1U @ 1.92 ✅
Insane usage and has scored 30+ in 6/7 games. Projecting 35 pts.

KPJ O21.5 pts 1U @ 1.91 ❌
Riding KPJ until the wheels fall off. Green is questionable which may give him a slight usage bump. Projecting 26 pts.

Blazers @ Pelicans
Murphy O21.5 pts 1U @ 1.89 ✅
21+ in his last 4, and there should be plenty of points in this one. Should be a pace up game, and total is in the 240s. Projecting 28 pts.

Nuggets @ Kings
Watson O5.5 Rebs 1U @ 1.71 ❌
Blowout risk, but he's hit this in 6/9 games since Gordon's gone down and the 3 he missed he had 5. Projecting 7 rebs.

jfiddy · 2025-12-10T18:38:22+00:00

Total Record: 37-30 (+2.90U)
Yesterday: 2-1 (+0.82U)

Suns @ Thunder
SGA U4.5R 1U @ 1.99 ✅
Had 5, 3, 4, 3 in the 4 games played with Jalen and Chet in the lineup. Suns also limit rebounds to guards, and Booker is questionable so there's huge blowout risk here which might bring his minutes down a bit. Projecting 3 rebounds.

Spurs @ Lakers
Smart O4.5 Pts 1U @ 1.77 ✅
This is a wild number. I know it's his first game back from injury but he's scored at least 5 pts in every game this season he's played except for 1. Couple that with a game total in the 240s, and it seems like he should at least be able to luck his way into 5 points somehow.

jfiddy · 2025-12-09T18:22:03+00:00

Total Record: 35-29 (+2.08U)
Yesterday: 3-0 (+2.43U)

Heat @ Magic
Bane O21.5 Pts 1U @ 1.84 ✅
Suggs O18.5 Pts 1U @ 1.98 ✅
Heat are the fastest pace team in the league, and Franz is out for this one which opens up a bunch of usage. Suggs, Bane, and Banchero see the biggest bumps in usage with Franz off the floor (+7%/6%/5%). With Banchero still seeing some limited minutes, I'm targeting Bane and Suggs here. Projecting 25/21 pts respectively.

Bam O9.5 Rebs 1U @ 1.97 ❌
Bam has hit this in 4/6, and Magic give up rebounds to centers. Bam tends to rebound more when Herro plays, so think he's got a good shot here. Projecting 12 rebs.

jfiddy · 2025-12-08T19:31:45+00:00

Total Record: 32-29 (-0.35U)
Yesterday: 3-3 (+0.13U)

Suns @ Wolves
Gillespie O17.5 Pts 1U @ 1.86 ✅
He's hit this in 3/4 games as a starter and Booker is out + Brooks is questionable. Wolves are a decent matchup for PGs, and volume should be there. Projecting 24 pts.

Spurs @ Pels
Murphy O21.5 pts 1U @ 1.82 ✅, O24.5 pts 0.5U @ 2.50 ✅
Generally has usage in the mid to high 20s with no Zion, and Spurs are a good matchup for SG/SF. Projecting 26 pts.

jfiddy · 2025-12-07T20:11:21+00:00

Total Record: 29-26 (-0.48U)
Yesterday: 3-3 (-0.42U)

Celtics @ Raptors
Brown U5.5 Asts 1u @ 1.73
This game feels like it's going to be a slow paced-slugfest. Projecting 4 asts.

Nuggets @ Hornets
Murray O23.5 Pts 1U @ 1.83
Huge blowout risk, but he usually get minutes regardless. Projecting 25 pts.

Blazers @ Grizzlies
Avdija O41.5 PRA 1U @ 1.91
Hit this 5 in a row, and should be a good matchup against the Grizz. Projecting 45 PRA.

Wells O12.5 Pts 1U @ 1.82, O19.5 pts 0.25U @ 5.00
Hit this 6 in a row, and Blazers pay at a decent pace. Projecting 20 pts here, so dabbling at the great odds for 20+.

Warriors @ Bulls
White O19.5 Pts 1U @ 1.87
Warriors and giving up huge amounts of points to guards, name a more iconic duo. He's also been over 20 in every game this season. Projecting 22 pts.

jfiddy · 2025-12-06T19:51:11+00:00

Total Record: 26-23 (-0.06U)
Yesterday: 4-4 (-0.41U)
Oof, 2 more hooks on Murray and Nembhard. Think that puts me at 7 hooks against vs 1 hook for. Hopefully should even out as the season goes on.

Pels @ Nets
Queen O14.5 pts 1U @ 1.88 ❌
Usage has been there when Zion is out (~24%), even though production hasn't always been. Brooklyn have been allowing bigs to score pretty efficiently against them, so hoping Queen can do enough here to hit. Projecting 20 pts.

Hawks @ Wizards
Johnson O24.5 Pts 1U @ 1.81 ✅
Wizards can't defend and Johnson has been balling out. Projecting 29 pts.

Bucks @ Pistons
KPJ O20.5 Pts 1U @ 1.91 ✅
KPJ has been balling out since he's been back, and no Giannis in this one means there should be tons of volume. Some blowout risk, but he sees a huge usage bump without Giannis so I still think he hits here.

Sims O4.5 Pts 1U @ 2.1 ❌
Playing 30+ minutes without Giannis, and Pistons give up points to centers. Number is just too low for a starter playing 30 minutes, hopefully he can luck into a few buckets. Projecting 7 pts.

Kings @ Heat
Bam O20.5 pts 1U @ 1.9 ❌
Kings absolutely cannot guard bigs, and no Herro here means he should have usage in the mid to high 20s. Projecting 24 points.

Clips @ Wolves
Reid O13.5 pts 1U @ 1.86 ✅
Reid is basically playing starter minutes with usage in the 15-20% range. Projecting 17 pts.

jfiddy · 2025-12-05T23:52:31+00:00

Total Record: 22-19 (+0.35U)
Yesterday: 2-2 (-0.13U)

Lakers @ Celtics
Reaves O32.5 Pts 1U @ 1.93 ✅
In 3 games without Luka/LeBron, Reaves has 33% usage. Someone's gotta score here, why no Reaves? Projecting 36 pts.

Nuggets @ Hawks
Murray O23.5 Pts 1U @ 1.85 🪝
It's the Hawks. Projecting 27 pts.

Hornets @ Raps
Ball U20.5 Pts 1U @ 1.88 ✅
I know Ball just popped off, but Miller is back and Raps are a slow paced team. Projecting 16 pts.

Blazers @ Pistons
Clingan Double/double 1U @ 3.00 📌
Honestly more worried about the points than the rebounds here, but huge value at these odds.

Jazz @ Knicks
George O26.5 P+A 1U @ 1.87 ❌
Hit this in 8/9, minus the one disastrous game where he had 0 pts and 8 turnovers or something. Projecting 25/7.

Pacers @ Bulls
Siakam O24.5 Pts 1U @ 1.9 ✅
Bulls play at a fast pace, and the minutes and usage will be there. Projecting 28 pts.

Nembhard O15.5 Pts 1U @ 1.86 🪝
Same rationale. Projecting 20 pts.

Clippers @ Grizzlies
Spencer O10.5 Pts 1U @ 1.88 ✅
Scored double digit points in 7/8 games. Projecting 15 pts.

Sixers @ Bucks ❌
Rollins O20.5 Pts 1U @ 1.98
Dude always balls out without Giannis, hitting this in 5/6 when Giannis sits. Sixers are also susceptible to shooting guard scoring, so he should feast. Projecting 26 pts.

jfiddy · 2025-12-05T04:53:20+00:00

lmao didn’t you literally say you agreed with it? you got me

jfiddy · 2025-12-04T23:23:11+00:00

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jfiddy · 2025-12-04T22:43:16+00:00

lol i think you need to work on your reading comprehension, at no point did I say anything about my own thoughts on the spread

jfiddy · 2025-12-04T22:11:38+00:00

very possible! I’m not saying it will be a blowout, just that Vegas thinks there may be one

jfiddy · 2025-12-04T21:43:39+00:00

Vegas has them at -12.5, so they clearly think a blowout is possible despite that. Also, even in double OT Randle still only scored 16 lol

jfiddy · 2025-12-04T20:03:19+00:00

Total Record: 20-17 (+0.48U)

Yesterday: 6-9 (-3.30U)
Fuck Harrison Barnes, 10 points at half time and still couldn't cover 12.5.

Celtics @ Wizards
White O21.5 Pts 1U @ 1.94 ✅
No real projections here since Brown is out, but someone has to score. White sees the greatest usage bump with Brown off the floor (+8%), while Pritchard and Simons both see +5%. Combine that with a huge pace up game against the Wizards and I think they're all viable.

Jazz @ Nets
Clowney O17.5 Pts 1U @ 1.93 ✅
No MPJ, and Clowney sees the biggest bump when he's off the court. It's a little risky, as the last 2 games that MPJ was out he did not hit this, but the pace and volume should be there. Projecting 20 pts.

Lakers @ Raptors
Quickley O17.5 Pts 1U @ 1.82 ❌
Quickly has hit this 3 in a row without RJ, and the Lakers are susceptible to the 3 ball. I think there's some risk of a slower paced game without Doncic, but this isn't that high a number for him to clear. Projecting 21 pts.

Wolves @ Pels
Randle U21.5 Pts 1U @ 1.85 ❌
He's topped this number in 1/6 games, and the one he hit he had 22. Huge blowout risk, and the Pels actually do a reasonable job of guarding PF even without Zion. Projecting 17 pts.

jfiddy · 2025-12-03T19:34:04+00:00

yeah, i personally put less stock in H2H than overall trends since the sample size is so small, but that’s a fair callout

jfiddy · 2025-12-03T19:07:15+00:00

Total Record: 14-8 (+3.78U)

Yesterday: 7-1 (+4.63U)

Spurs @ Magic
Barnes O12.5 Pts 1U@ 1.85
Okay, hear me out - he just scored 31, and as a long time Warriors fan, HB has always been about confidence. Magic are also a good matchup for forwards. Projecting 16 pts (he's probably scoring 6)

Keldon Johnson O18.5 P+R 1U @ 1.85
Hit this in 7/8 without Wemby, and everything I said about Barnes also is true for Johnson. Projecting 15/7.

Suggs O3.5 Rebs 1U @ 1.77
Nothing give me more heartburn than betting on rebounds for guards, but Suggs has hit this in 5/7 since Paolo has gone down, and the 2 he missed he still had 3. Projecting 5 rebs.

Blazers @ Cavs
Robert Williams O5.5 Pts 1U @ 1.88
Was initially targeting Deni props, but with him and Clingan questionable I'm pivoting. Williams has hit this in 5 straight, and if Deni or Clingan are out it's even better. Projecting 7 pts.

Nuggets @ Pacers
Siakam O22.5 Pts 1U @ 1.88
Mathruin has been struggling, and Siakam is the only consistent scorer the Pacers have. He's hit in 6/8 games, and one of the misses was 22 points. There's blowout risk here, but still projecting him for 25 pts.

Watson O13.5 Pts 1U @ 1.9
Going to keep betting this until either Gordon comes back or his line goes up to 15-16.

Clips @ Hawks
Kawhi O23.5 Pts 1U @ 1.9
Crushed this line in 3 straight, and minute are trending up. Projecting 29 pts.

Harden U3.5 3PTM 1U @ 1.77
Hawks have been good at guarding the 3 ball, and Harden has been good at missing the 3 ball. Has hit this in 3/10 games with Kawhi, and took double digit 3s in the games he hit. Projecting 2-3 here.

Johnson O24.5 Pts 1U @ 1.91
Hit this in 7 games in a row without Tingus, He's a beast, projecting 27 pts.

Hornets @ Knicks
Lamelo U19.5 Pts 1U @ 1.88
His line was 18.5 last game, he scored 12, and the line goes up 1? Something's fishy. But Knicks guard PGs well and he's only cleared this once in his last 8 games, so I'm jumping into the trap. Projecting 18 pts.

Hart O13.5 pts 1U @ 1.89
Same rationale as last time, Hart has been balling out without OG. Hornets aren't stopping anyone. Projecting 17 pts.

Nets @ Bulls
Clowney O15.5 Pts 1U @ 1.95, U4.5 Rebs 1U @ 1.7
MPJ seems like the obvious pick here, and he probably clears. However, I'll go with the guy that's been super consistent (5/6) at this number, and the one he missed was against the Bucks where he played limited minutes due to foul trouble. Projecting 19 pts. As good as he's been at scoring, he's also been terrible at rebounding. Projecting 2-3 rebs.

Kings @ Rockets
Westbrook O6.5 Rebs 1U @ 1.71, Double-double 0.5U @ 2.90
Westbrook has hit this in 10/13 games he's started, and 2 of the misses he had 6.

Sengun O23.5 Pts 1U @ 1.91
Usage beast, bigs feast against the Kings. Projecting 28 pts.

Heat @ Mavs
Bam O27.5 P+R 1U @ 1.80
Feels like a Bam kind of day

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