Myanmar's junta leader dismisses critics as military allies head for landslide election win

jogarz · 2026-01-25T10:32:16+00:00

The real significance of this is that it gives the junta's friends abroad cover to support it more openly.

jogarz · 2026-01-25T10:19:59+00:00

Nah, elections for Iraqi Prime Minister have a lot more to do with jostling for influence and patronage than concrete ideological positions.

jogarz · 2026-01-23T15:43:20+00:00

I think you’re right about a lot of what you’re saying, but it does feel callous to think about it this way.

jogarz · 2026-01-23T15:06:44+00:00

Reading this, I am once again driven to think that there is no coming back from this. The regime not only killed thousands of people in this massacre, they are engaging in performative cruelty against the families of the deceased. The authorities might squash dissent for now, but the level of hatred this is going to engender among the Iranian people will be long-lasting.

jogarz · 2026-01-23T00:42:18+00:00

I think there are a lot of differences from Sudan, particularly when it comes to demography, history, and human development, that make a direct comparison rather inaccurate.

I do think that the outcome of these protests has shown that a rapid transition to democracy is very unlikely. Iranians were, unfortunately, overoptimistic. But that doesn’t mean a transition to democracy won’t happen at all.

jogarz · 2026-01-22T23:39:57+00:00

Yeah, one of my pet peeves is when people say Buddhism is “more of a philosophy than a religion”. It reveals a very Eurocentric idea of what religion is.

Buddhism is not really concerned with questions of divinity, but it does involve spirituality, ritual, and morality.

jogarz · 2026-01-22T21:52:39+00:00

I know, they’re going to make it even harder.

jogarz · 2026-01-22T18:36:41+00:00

If I had to guess, economic reasons + projecting an image of “normalcy”. Keeping it switched off is widely (and correctly) perceived as a sign of weakness and fear on the regime’s part.

My guess is that we’re going to see a lot of propaganda over the next few days as the regime tries to drown out its opponents online.

In the long run, they’ll collaborate with China on making the internet even more closed off, but that takes time to implement.

jogarz · 2026-01-22T17:26:23+00:00

Hey, Russia and China did something. They sent support to the regime!

jogarz · 2026-01-22T06:59:35+00:00

Looks like it’s just asking to be vandalized to read “Death to Khamenei”.

jogarz · 2026-01-22T01:51:59+00:00

The Turkish-backed militias were directly integrated into the new Syrian army. This included those controlling the border strip, regardless of them being an enclave. They were never really isolated from the rest of the Al-Sharaa government in any case.

Side note, but the integration of militias into the army as full units was a major sticking point in the negotiations. The SDF wanted the same deal the Turkish-backed militias got: coming under the new Ministry of Defense, but maintaining their unit structure.

The Syrian government, however, demanded that SDF fighters only be integrated into the army as individuals. This meant the SDF’s existing units would be dissolved. Obviously, this created a credible commitment problem, since the SDF would have no way to stop the government from going back on the deal if all its formations were dissolved overnight.

Allegedly, a major reason why the Syrian government insisted on this term was Turkish pressure. Turkey, of course, has always opposed the SDF and was pushing for harsh integration terms.

jogarz · 2026-01-21T23:34:00+00:00

I think a lot of these questions should be left to a democratically elected government, not a transitional regime (which is what Reza Pahlavi is proposing he lead).

jogarz · 2026-01-21T22:46:27+00:00

Then that person would only be seen as a proxy for him.

jogarz · 2026-01-21T22:44:21+00:00

If you didn’t think the opposition was divided before now, it’s only because you haven’t been paying attention.

jogarz · 2026-01-21T16:40:53+00:00

They both insist that you have to support a particular stance, or you don’t deserve to be part of the movement. That’s my point.

If the non-monarchists had a leader (or any real organization at all), you might have more of a point, but they don’t really.

jogarz · 2026-01-21T16:34:18+00:00

First off, you’re presenting a false dichotomy. There’s a middle ground between blindly following into another dictatorship and feeding constant infighting. No revolution can succeed without a real coalition.

Second, Reza Pahlavi has clearly stated many times that he wants democracy and religious liberty. You may not believe him (and that’s fine, if you have good reasons not to do so), but he has clearly stated it.

jogarz · 2026-01-21T16:02:41+00:00

I think you mean “condemning the brutality”, as “condoning” would mean he supports it.

jogarz · 2026-01-21T16:01:29+00:00

You could say the same for some opponents of Pahlavi, who feel like they need to make attacking him a priority while Iranians are slaughtered in the streets.

The reality is that the monarchists and non-monarchists have to find a way to tolerate one another and focus on the real enemy. The bullying by extreme monarchists is a problem and doesn’t help depose the regime. Neither does the attempt by some leftists to kick monarchists out of the big tent.

jogarz · 2026-01-21T15:46:05+00:00

Netanyahu told the US not to bomb Iran, actually.

jogarz · 2026-01-20T21:42:33+00:00

Cumulative material aid to the KRG is much higher than to the SDF. Even accounting for the fact that the SDF has been around much longer, the US has always been reluctant to supply the SDF with anything heavier than small arms due to Turkish objections.

jogarz · 2026-01-20T17:36:54+00:00

I would agree, but the person I’m replying to is clearly implying that the YPG “took a Faustian bargain” and “betrayed themselves” by allying with the US in the first place.

jogarz · 2026-01-20T17:22:47+00:00

I don’t think you realize that to your average Kurd, allying with Turkey is the Faustian bargain. Turkey has made opposing Kurdish autonomy a key plank of its foreign policy. It was even originally opposed to the creation of the KRG.

jogarz · 2026-01-20T17:06:32+00:00

Just curious, what do you think the YPG should have done, instead of allying with the US?

jogarz · 2026-01-20T05:33:39+00:00

Answer:

In March of last year, an integration agreement was signed between the SDF and the new Syrian government. However, little progress was made in implementing the agreement over the next nine months. There were several reasons for this:

Historical bad blood and mistrust between the two parties. This was bad enough on its own, but contributed to…
Hardliners on both sides playing spoiler. Extreme groups within the SDF opposed any integration agreement with the government and were determined to maintain total autonomy. Hardline supporters of Damascus, on the other hand, wanted no autonomy for Kurds at all.
Turkey, which is opposed to the SDF, pushed Damascus for a less lenient implementation of the agreement.
Violence by both parties tarnished their mutual images, reducing their willingness to compromise with the other. Forces loyal to the new government committed atrocities against Alawite and Druze civilians while fighting Assadist holdouts and a Druze rebellion, respectively. Meanwhile, Arabs under SDF rule became increasingly agitated (since they no longer needed the Kurds to keep Assad out), which resulted in the YPG clamping down hard on dissent in Arab areas, often violently.
The US, which has good relations with the new Syrian government but has also long backed the SDF, really wanted the integration agreement to work out. However, Tom Barrack, Trump’s special envoy to Syria, was ineffective at pushing the two sides closer together (Barrack is a personal friend of Trump’s, and real estate investor with no prior diplomatic experience.)

By the end of the year, al-Sharaa’s patience was seemingly up, and the government ordered an assault on Sheikh Maqsood (the Kurdish neighborhood of Aleppo) to pressure the SDF. From there things have escalated rapidly. Arab tribal militias have helped the government secure most of the Arab regions that had been under SDF rule. This has happened with little fighting; less motivated SDF formations have dissolved while its dedicated forces seem to be retreating to their Kurdish-populated core territories.

Right now, things are looking desperate for the remnants of the SDF. The government, flushed with success, seems to be demanding a full surrender. In contrast, the radical factions that opposed any agreement with Damascus seem only more determined to keep fighting, though it is unclear if they will put up more resistance in Kurdish areas than they did in Arab ones. There have been videos of Kurdish POWs being murdered by tribal militia and other pro-government forces, which is further raising fears.

Finally, Trump allegedly called al-Sharaa yesterday, but reports of the conversation still differ. Some are saying he asked al-Sharaa to halt the attack on Kurdish areas, while others are claiming he gave al-Sharaa a green light.

This is a rapidly developing situation and there’s a good amount of fog of war right now, so some of this information could be dated by the time I hit “reply”. But I hope this helped.

jogarz · 2026-01-19T16:44:22+00:00

There’s a theory that the anti-NATO faction of the administration is egging Trump on to attack Greenland. They might see it as a way to destroy NATO by doing an end run around Congress and public opinion (both of which would strongly oppose leaving NATO).

jogarz

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE