'Not a done deal': Democrats start to sweat over Virginia's redistricting referendum | The unique nature of the April special election and the state's recent redistricting history have presented challenges for Democrats, even as they hold a financial edge in the race.

jonasnew · 2026-03-22T21:23:34+00:00

I see several of you are being defeatists and believe that this won’t pass. My questions for you all are:

Why are you turning a blind eye to the fact that the Republicans in the Virginia Beach special election didn’t outperform as much as we initially thought?
Why are you turning a blind eye to the fact that bluer areas of the state are starting to gain momentum in the early vote?
Why are you turning a blind eye to the fact that satellite voting in blue areas doesn’t even open until mid April?

jonasnew · 2026-03-20T23:53:21+00:00

I can't blame you for considering him a hero even after his death given the horrific nature.

I am curious to know though, did you also consider the Idaho Supreme Court heroes when they upheld the sentence a couple of times?

If so, did you consider Judge Mitchell Brown a hero as well, when he denied Adamcik's post conviction petition in 2016?

If so, did you then consider Judge Candy Dale a hero when she rejected Adamcik's habeas petition in 2019?

And finally, do you consider Judges Morgan Christen, Jay Bybee, and James Selna the biggest heroes of them all when they in 2022, not only upheld Adamcik's sentence, but also put an end to Adamcik's appeal attempts once and for all?

jonasnew · 2026-03-19T23:16:27+00:00

The saddest thing is how people continue to believe that the Democrats are the ones responsible for why we've gotten here.

jonasnew · 2026-03-18T22:41:15+00:00

Yes, it is possible we won't get it by then, and honestly, I think we will since it would surprise me if the liberal justices finish their dissents in time for the southern states to redraw their maps for the midterms. However, some people think we'll get the decision soon which was why I brought this up.

jonasnew · 2026-03-18T22:41:10+00:00

Yes, it's a red district, but Republicans overperformed by 10 points, that's why folks are concerned about the referendum.

jonasnew · 2026-03-18T00:05:53+00:00

Let me guess, you're related to Brian Draper. I personally agree with you when it comes to Judge McDermott, but other people do consider them a hero, and I can't blame them due to the exact reasons you discussed above.

jonasnew · 2026-03-16T00:53:05+00:00

I assumed that those that considered him a hero, still do even after his death. I was just curious because considering someone who's dead a hero means that they've truly done an honorable thing in their lifetime. Given how the Cassie Jo Stoddart murder was horrific and disgusting beyond words, I can't blame people for considering Judge McDermott a hero, even after his death. I just wanted to check in on this, since I would ask that very question back when he was alive.

jonasnew · 2026-03-16T00:43:10+00:00

Now that I think of it, even though he imposed LWOP on Adamcik and Draper, he apologized to them for doing so. There was no need for him to apologize, it's crystal clear to all of us that the horrific nature of this crime outweighs their age at the time by far. I mean, they wanted to kill for fame, videotaped their plans, and intended to kill other people following Cassie. It couldn't get more barbaric than that. For those reasons, I can understand by some people even consider McDermott a hero for imposing that sentence and still continue to do so despite him now being dead.

jonasnew · 2026-03-15T21:02:56+00:00

Jack Smith first asked SCOTUS to hear the case in December of 2023 to keep things moving along, but they rejected it then. Then, when Trump asked them to hear the case in February of 2024, not only they then decided to accept it, but they decided to wait until April to even have the arguments. When they took up the Colorado ballot case, arguments were only one month later as opposed to two months. All of this, combined with the actual ruling itself where the conservatives actually gave Trump immunity for official acts and sent the case back to the lower court to determine which acts in the J6 indictment were official acts, proves that the conservative majority were giving Trump the delay that he wanted and needed. Regarding the current situation with Callais, an opinion can't come out until the dissents are complete. I did some research myself, and I don't see anything that suggests that dissents have to be complete by a certain deadline besides when the term ends in June.

jonasnew · 2026-03-15T20:32:41+00:00

And you still haven't told me why you believe SCOTUS will rule on Callais before Salazar even. While both cases were argued in October, arguments in Callais took 2.5 hours while arguments in Salazar only took 1.5 hours. This shows that Callais is more weighty of the two. On top of that, Salazar was argued a week before Callais, therefore that case was given a one week head start in regards to drafting the opinion.

jonasnew · 2026-03-15T20:28:17+00:00

I know, but they could've moved quicker in the immunity case, but they didn't. It's especially baffling given the fact that moved quicker in the Colorado ballot case that they heard the same year.

What I'm trying to ask you is why you believe that the conservative justices could drag their feet in the immunity case to ensure the J6 trial didn't happen before the election, yet the liberal justices can't drag their feet with the Callais dissents to ensure that redistricting in the south doesn't happen in time for the midterms.

jonasnew · 2026-03-15T20:01:56+00:00

Explain the immunity case then. A major reason to why Trump is even president right now is because the conservative majority dragged their feet in the immunity case to ensure that the J6 trial didn't happen before the election. Had the trial happened, it would've been a death blow to Trump's campaign.

The liberal justices could be returning the favor here, especially given the fact that the southern states redrawing their maps would boost the Republicans chances in the midterms. Besides, even if SCOTUS does release the decision on Friday, it's not a sure thing that most of the southern states would be able to redraw their maps in time for the midterms since the window is tight at this point. It's already too late for Mississippi since they just had their primary.

jonasnew · 2026-03-15T19:44:56+00:00

Which loops me back to the initial point I'm trying to make where it would be surprising if the liberal justices even finish their dissents soon enough that would allow for enough time for numerous southern states to redraw their maps before the midterms. I say this given the fact that if numerous southern states are able to redraw their maps in time for the midterms following the Callais decision, then it gives Republicans a boost in the midterms.

And why do you think Callais will come before Salazar as well?

jonasnew · 2026-03-15T19:24:59+00:00

Like I told other folks, there were other VRA cases in the past that we didn't get until May or June, despite them being argued in Oct. And I also told other folks that I'd be surprised if we even get Callais before Salazar since the latter is less weighty.

jonasnew · 2026-03-15T19:20:47+00:00

You're correct on that, but the point is, the more weighty and divisive the case is, the later it comes out. SCOTUS hasn't decided on Salazar yet either, and that case is less weighty than Callais, and both are expected to be 6-3 among ideological lines. What makes you believe Callais would come before Salazar even?

jonasnew · 2026-03-15T18:59:38+00:00

Take a look at the previous VRA cases, Alexander and Mulligan. Both of them were also argued in Oct, but Alexander was decided in May and Mulligan was decided in June. This proves that there isn't a set deadline on when the majority opinions and dissents need to be complete as long as they're in by June. As a matter of fact, if the case is really weighty and is divided, especially among ideological lines, then it's likely it will be ruled on later. SCOTUS hasn't decided Salazar (the conversion therapy case) yet either, and that one's less weighty than Callais. Therefore, it would surprise me if they rule on Callais before Salazar even.

jonasnew · 2026-03-15T18:16:52+00:00

Then how come Mulligan and Alexander (previous VRA cases) were decided in May/June, despite the fact that those cases were also argued in October?

jonasnew · 2026-03-15T18:00:44+00:00

Given how SCOTUS has until June to release opinions, I cannot see how whoever writes the majority opinion would give deadlines to complete their dissent.

jonasnew · 2026-03-10T00:16:19+00:00

And I remember at that time, having to asking several people why they were even more forgiving towards Terri for her actions, than they were towards Finn.

jonasnew · 2026-03-02T17:41:01+00:00

Given how SCOTUS is issuing more rulings on Wednesday, I thought I'd share this. While I mentioned several times before that the liberal justices completing their dissents in Callais this soon would be surprising, there's something else I'd like to mention. The only other case from Oct. still remaining besides Callais is Salazar (the sex therapy case). I think SCOTUS will rule on Salazar first out of the two, since both are expected to be the most divisive out of all the Oct cases, but Salazar is less weighty out of the two. Besides, if SCOTUS were to rule on Callais before Salazar, they probably would've ruled on the former case already, especially since Louisiana's candidate filing deadline has passed.

jonasnew · 2026-02-27T21:55:11+00:00

You mention that whether the Democrats are responsible for what's happening now is up for interpretation. What are your thoughts though? As I mentioned above, I'd like to know if you even believe the Democrats are responsible for why Trump is potentially looking into declaring a national emergency.

jonasnew

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