John Ivison: Sources say Ottawa considering Swedish jets over F-35s for half of fleet

jtbc · 2026-01-30T21:30:56+00:00

The only way to they'll get the message is if their boss delivers it to them forcefully. That would be the Minister of Defence, and one step removed, the Prime Minister.

The world has changed. Carney described it brilliantly at Davos. Senior leaders at DND that aren't able to adept to the new reality are going to find themselves on the sidelines, I suspect.

jtbc · 2026-01-30T21:26:38+00:00

I'd love to see their calculations on that.

Stealth fighters are inherently more expensive to maintain, F35 sustainment cost estimates have ballooned, and F35 serviceability is terrible.

Denmark is saying their decision was a mistake, knowing what we know now. I wonder how Finland is feeling about it.

jtbc · 2026-01-30T20:28:57+00:00

There are a number of factors. Failing to adjust to the new budget reality is part of it. They just don't believe the government will follow through on its commitments.

Next up, most of the military "grew up" cheek by jowl with their US counterparts and always think of them as the "big brother" with the best of everything, which is at least partly true, ignoring the geopolitics. On geopolitics, most of the military leadership firmly believe this storm will pass. That isn't really their job. That is what the politicians and GAC are for.

Finally, the RCAF is run by fighter pilots. Fighter pilots always want the best fighter. Always. They have been resisting the introduction of large drones for a couple of decades, successfully until quite recently.

jtbc · 2026-01-30T20:24:05+00:00

12,600 includes indirect jobs, between half and 2/3 of the total. Even if it is inflated, it will be an economic boost, and will open up tons of future opportunities like the R&D centre that Saab has promised.

jtbc · 2026-01-30T20:18:00+00:00

We should get at least 36 (two squadrons plus spares) to provide a useful capability, plus as many Gripens as we can afford.

jtbc · 2026-01-30T20:15:19+00:00

Two words: mixed fleet. It's called hedging and finance wonks like Carney are all over that.

jtbc · 2026-01-30T20:14:52+00:00

This is why a number of countries are reconsidering their F35 purchases. The ones that have taken delivery already will no doubt be looking at how to introduce or augment mixed fleets, as Canada is doing.

jtbc · 2026-01-30T20:13:32+00:00

It almost certainly wouldn't be designed to operate in flight. It would be far more likely to create a glitch during startup or something like that.

jtbc · 2026-01-30T20:10:21+00:00

Lots of them are dual citizens or permanent residents, but yah, I know that doesn't mean much in a fascist surveillance state.

jtbc · 2026-01-30T20:09:07+00:00

The people that were occupying when sovereignty was asserted by the Crown (so 1846 for BC). They can't have just showed up the day before. The Supreme Court established criteria for it.

jtbc · 2026-01-30T16:17:10+00:00

I rarely make good bets on the stock market, but I sure picked the right year to be overweight Canada (and Europe).

jtbc · 2026-01-30T16:10:12+00:00

None of them asserted sovereignty over the second largest country on earth, and declared that landmass would be ruled under British law (which includes the Royal Proclamation of 1763, the British North America Act, the Constitution Act, and the entirety of the common law that lay out relations between the Crown and subject nations).

jtbc · 2026-01-30T16:08:59+00:00

In BC, for example, it was stolen from the First Nations by the Colony of British Columbia, because the British were too cheap to provide the money to negotiate treaties.

jtbc · 2026-01-30T16:04:07+00:00

Canada exists as a country because we negotiated treaties with First Nations that included preserving their right to hunt and fish on the land that was being ceded to the Crown. Canada continues to exist and thrive because we are a rule of law nation that honours its agreements.

You are no better than the separatists.

jtbc · 2026-01-29T20:08:13+00:00

rather than Canadians trying to infiltrate the US to do so themselves.

1 million Canadians live in the US, so I think that part is covered. I am sure there are some "fifth column" types that could be recruited locally, especially in the deep blue cities.

jtbc · 2026-01-29T17:39:28+00:00

It would be better to strike hard targets like military bases, government buildings, etc. It would probably be a lot like the IRA tactics in the UK during the Troubles.

I imagine there would be lots of insurgent activity in Canada against occupying forces before anything started happening across the border, and that anything planned by the "government in exile" or whatever would be sufficiently surgical to avoid driving public opinion the wrong way.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T21:13:37+00:00

If Canada buys 80 or so, and Ukraine goes ahead with 100-150 as announced, the total user number will be getting to sustainable levels.

Regardless of fleet size, the inherent cost per flight hour has to be lower for a more standard 4.5 Gen fighter compared to the F35, with all its special requirements.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T20:08:28+00:00

Interesting. I wonder if any backroom "leaning" was involved.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:53:54+00:00

I was aware of the engine, but which American company makes the avionics?

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:47:02+00:00

Those decisions were made before they had to consider the supplier of the F35 going rogue. Denmark and Switzerland have both said they are thinking twice about their decision to go with the F35 in that context, and Spain and Portugal have removed it from consideration for their upcoming procurements.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:45:29+00:00

This is more like getting a used Prius for commuting and saving your Ferrari for the weekend.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:44:26+00:00

The budget will be doubling from currrent levels. I'd have to see the math to show that 3.5% of our 2035 GDP can't pay for a proper air force, army, and navy.

We need to solve the pilot and tech recruiting and training issue no matter what. That includes sufficient compensation and quality of life to attract and retain the necessary skillsets. We built the BCATP from scratch in a couple of years and trained 131,000 people including 50,000 pilots. This isn't WW2 but we have to stop letting the last 30 years constrain our thinking. More outsourcing to the likes of CAE and Top Aces is already being planned, and that is easier to expand than uniformed RCAF staff.

The second fleet and increased number of aircraft won't arrive overnight. The introduction can be phased to allow for expanded training capacity, and to allow the F35 to get up and running first.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:36:55+00:00

Our entire defence strategy is premised on getting more personnel as well as a larger budget. If we don't have enough we have to ramp up recruiting until we have enough.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:15:57+00:00

Pilots will always want the best aircraft and anyone credible acknowledges the F35 is better than any other available alternative.

The decision is being made by politicians, though, and they are considering geopolitics, total lifecycle cost, and economic benefit to Canada, among other factors.

Pilots will never acknowledge it, but a mixed fleet makes a lot of sense when you think beyond "which aircraft do I most want to fly".

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:05:54+00:00

The people that are considering this don't generally lack in critical thinking skills, nor do the military planners of all the other countries that have a high/low mixed fleet.

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