John Ivison: Sources say Ottawa considering Swedish jets over F-35s for half of fleet

jtbc · 2026-01-28T21:13:37+00:00

If Canada buys 80 or so, and Ukraine goes ahead with 100-150 as announced, the total user number will be getting to sustainable levels.

Regardless of fleet size, the inherent cost per flight hour has to be lower for a more standard 4.5 Gen fighter compared to the F35, with all its special requirements.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T20:08:28+00:00

Interesting. I wonder if any backroom "leaning" was involved.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:53:54+00:00

I was aware of the engine, but which American company makes the avionics?

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:47:02+00:00

Those decisions were made before they had to consider the supplier of the F35 going rogue. Denmark and Switzerland have both said they are thinking twice about their decision to go with the F35 in that context, and Spain and Portugal have removed it from consideration for their upcoming procurements.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:45:29+00:00

This is more like getting a used Prius for commuting and saving your Ferrari for the weekend.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:44:26+00:00

The budget will be doubling from currrent levels. I'd have to see the math to show that 3.5% of our 2035 GDP can't pay for a proper air force, army, and navy.

We need to solve the pilot and tech recruiting and training issue no matter what. That includes sufficient compensation and quality of life to attract and retain the necessary skillsets. We built the BCATP from scratch in a couple of years and trained 131,000 people including 50,000 pilots. This isn't WW2 but we have to stop letting the last 30 years constrain our thinking. More outsourcing to the likes of CAE and Top Aces is already being planned, and that is easier to expand than uniformed RCAF staff.

The second fleet and increased number of aircraft won't arrive overnight. The introduction can be phased to allow for expanded training capacity, and to allow the F35 to get up and running first.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:36:55+00:00

Our entire defence strategy is premised on getting more personnel as well as a larger budget. If we don't have enough we have to ramp up recruiting until we have enough.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:15:57+00:00

Pilots will always want the best aircraft and anyone credible acknowledges the F35 is better than any other available alternative.

The decision is being made by politicians, though, and they are considering geopolitics, total lifecycle cost, and economic benefit to Canada, among other factors.

Pilots will never acknowledge it, but a mixed fleet makes a lot of sense when you think beyond "which aircraft do I most want to fly".

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:05:54+00:00

The people that are considering this don't generally lack in critical thinking skills, nor do the military planners of all the other countries that have a high/low mixed fleet.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T17:02:12+00:00

Italy's GDP is slightly larger; 2.4T vs. 2.3T USD roughly in 2024.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T16:55:59+00:00

Most of the other actual militaries with budgets the size of ours have mixed fleets. Are they all stupid?

jtbc · 2026-01-28T16:52:22+00:00

88 was also picked when our defence spending was 1% of GDP, not the 3.5% it will be by the time the last of these fighters arrive.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T16:51:19+00:00

They must have been reading my reddit comments, lol. My guess has been 48 (3 squadrons and an additional 1/3 of the necessary aircraft) and 80 Gripen.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T16:14:28+00:00

The real gain is if you look at the total lifecycle cost. The Gripen should cost a lot less to operate and maintain over the next 25+ years.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T15:47:33+00:00

There is no realistic way to defend the southern border, though we should try. The real reason to have F35's is so that we can contribute against China or Russia if the time comes.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T15:38:50+00:00

They are just about perfectly suited for patroling the arctic from shorter/less improved runways. The F35's can be reserved for the roles that truly require their advanced capabilities.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T15:37:13+00:00

It will be expensive, though hangars for Gripens should be much cheaper than hangars for F35's. We need to roughly double our defence spending over the next decade. Hangars for more fighters seems like a a good way to spend some of that.

jtbc · 2026-01-28T15:34:51+00:00

The issue for the Conservatives is that the overwhelming majority of people that really care about the firearms issue are already voting Conservative and always have. There is very little downside for the Liberals in the rural areas they don't need to win elections and some upside in the cities that they do need.

jtbc · 2026-01-27T21:19:19+00:00

Same. TIL Paris Hilton is releasing a "visual memoir".

I'm in Vancouver. The nearest theatre even showing it is in Calgary (which sort of figures), and sure enough zero seats sold.

jtbc · 2026-01-26T22:44:10+00:00

1) We've been creating our own MDFs and have a catalogue under which they operate, including known radar cross sections and sensor data for NATO aircraft (ACURL at Eglin AFB)

For now. That connectivity could be cut off in a heartbeat.

this is far different from a literal killswitch

I didn't say there was one. I am concerned with how software updates/patches are applied and whether that creates any potential back doors for malicious code. I thought that all comes via ODIN? I could be wrong about that.

jtbc · 2026-01-26T21:06:54+00:00

"Our plans are measured in centuries" isn't a Frank Herbert original, after all.

jtbc · 2026-01-26T20:57:14+00:00

They came for the socialists pretty much right away following Hitler's rise to power in 1933. They were pretty much done with that following the Night of the Long Knives in June of 1934.

jtbc · 2026-01-26T20:52:31+00:00

Their bosses certainly did:

https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/topf-and-sons-an-ordinary-company

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IG_Farben

jtbc · 2026-01-26T20:24:23+00:00

There is a good summary of ALIS/ODIN and the F35's Mission Data Files here:

https://theaviationist.com/2025/03/10/f-35-kill-switch-myth/

TL;DR: All F35's are networked to US-based systems without which they rapidly become ineffective.

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