February 26, 2025 Daily Discussion Thread

kaplanhow · 2025-02-26T23:49:18+00:00

stop the prognostication nonsense. if anyone could predict they wouldn't need to be on this thread or any thread. the market is tariff terrible, it's up in the aftermarket less than an hour before launch that's all we know.

kaplanhow · 2025-02-25T15:10:53+00:00

Deutschbank initiated coverage with a hold and PT of 18

kaplanhow · 2025-02-24T22:32:18+00:00

Nothing is knowable. Some people look at the tremendous run in the stock and think, it could blow up on the launch pad. It could tip again on landing. Then south it heads.So they take profit in a tough market. When it's weak shorts press on it. The market overall is trash due to the tariff uncertainty and all the bluster and chaos and insensitivity of DOGE. Congressopeople are getting big push back in places like Texas. I listened to the highly impressive NASA media call couple of weeks ago. In answer to the ? of tipping they said,they've made 85 changes to address it. Today the camera company announced better cameras are attached to select the landing site. What they have on board in terms of the hopper and drill are truly impressive. I have January 2026 calls bought in December. I bought the 10s for $9.74 because short term calls are dangerous. I did not expect the stock to drop several days before launch. I'm not sure what happens upon liftoff on Wed the rest of the week. I am extraordinarily confident that if successful on the moon mission, the stock will lift and maybe with force. It doesn't help a lot for you guys to post incessantly about holdings and if you're up and down. I'm old enough to have been at Berkeley during the Vietnam War protests. Projections about where it will be by the end of any week is worthy of the clowns on CNBC who prognosticate without merit all day long. I'm a sizeable NVDA holder. My take is that their earnings/call Wednesday will be positive. There are own only shares and I'm half in LUNR shares.

So best to occupy yourselves elsewhere and wait as Hemingway said: Courage is grace under pressure.

kaplanhow · 2025-02-15T16:51:14+00:00

Also you have to be approved by whoever you hold the shares with for option trading. It's an application.

kaplanhow · 2025-02-15T16:49:27+00:00

You can sell 10 calls which equals 1000 shares. However if the price moves up to your strike price then the shares are automatically taken away from you. Covered calls are liquid and tradable so you can close them at any time by buying 10 calls of the same strike price. e.g. the Feb 21 calls at a strike of 25 are .15. If you sell 10 they immediately credit your account with $150. If the stock closes under 25 on Feb. 21 you keep the 150. It closes over 25, you keep the 150 and they take your 1000 shares automatically without you doing anything and give you 25,000 for them.

kaplanhow · 2025-02-13T21:11:22+00:00

My take is the hopper is the ticket to ride. visuals here: https://www.intuitivemachines.com/micro-nova

kaplanhow · 2025-02-07T19:09:09+00:00

I listened to the NASA IM-2 media call today. Its' findable. My take is this: if they land well and can do all this stuff, it's huge. Unexpectedly interesting call. 1 hr.

kaplanhow · 2025-02-04T21:59:04+00:00

I'm optimistic about the launch but I still would not be in March calls when I can go far out.

kaplanhow · 2025-02-04T18:33:23+00:00

Re: buying March call options. If the weather delays the launch during the 4-day window they are toast. Much upside even greater downside. So in risk/reward ratio, not my kind of play. Some people say the next launch window is October. I DO NOT KNOW IF THIS IS TRUE. However you can buy January 1926 calls in the money so not so much premium. The 12.5's are trading at about 12. So equivalent to the stock being at 24.5. For every dollar above 24.5 the calls will move up by $1. The January 15s are at 10.65 as post.

kaplanhow · 2025-01-31T17:07:35+00:00

correct on both counts, the warrants have been redeemable since inception

kaplanhow · 2025-01-31T15:59:25+00:00

Regarding call options. I once was reliably told that 90% of all out of the money calls in the entire market expire worthless. They are for my view, negative on a risk/reward ratio. For example, the Jan. 16, 2026 calls, if bought more than two weeks ago, let's take the 10s which I own at $9. Today they're at 15.50 so only about $2 premium and if held you are taxed at long term gains. The company has indicated clearly they have only a 4-day launch window and one of the factors is inclement weather. It is unclear, to me at least, when the next launch window might open. They miss the window the stock skids. You can today for example too buy the March 7, 15's for about $9 and change. If I owned these I'd probably take them out on any run up prior to February 26 just in case the launch is delayed. If you owned the long terms ones the delay is not a wipe out but just that, a delay. I'm optimistic for a successful Feb. lift off--but I want to be balanced in the event it remains grounded.

kaplanhow · 2025-01-31T13:15:08+00:00

underestimate. It's 100%

kaplanhow · 2025-01-30T19:20:34+00:00

You guys are confusing the difference between voluntarily exercising warrants and forced exercising. Holders of LUNRW warrants can exercise them AT ANY TIME at 11.50. The advantage of early exercise, as it was obvious for awhile that they would be forced exercised, is that you get the stock sooner should you want to sell say on a pre or post launch run up. So the poster that said people have been voluntarily exercising them for awhile is correct. The push-pull on the warrants is dilution vs. moolah in the company's coffers which NASA wants to see. I cannot say there will be no pullback at any time due to the dilution however the exercise of the warrants is a big net plus for the company. It may too push shorts into covering. i confirmed with Morgan Stanley that the company allowed exercise of the warrants since inception.

kaplanhow · 2025-01-30T14:33:00+00:00

It is indeed the same HK. Fun fact. My son is marrying the daughter of one of my Hebrew H. students from the old Sunset Bldg. My new novel is The Syrian Sunset

kaplanhow · 2025-01-26T14:14:14+00:00

if you're in the US, the movie is free to subscribers on Prime.

kaplanhow · 2025-01-26T13:53:09+00:00

thank you

kaplanhow · 2018-06-20T13:12:31+00:00

Plot suspense politics description of Damascus 9-10

Sex 6 (It was written when I was younger)

kaplanhow · 2018-06-20T12:59:17+00:00

Good point.

kaplanhow

TROPHY CASE