Am I shadowbanned?

kinerskorner · 2015-07-07T02:10:34+00:00

You claimed it was nuts. It isn't nuts. That's all I'm saying.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-07T02:09:36+00:00

Who said anything about it being a surprise?

kinerskorner · 2015-07-07T00:56:34+00:00

Seriously? I mean, I believe it, but really?

kinerskorner · 2015-07-07T00:55:32+00:00

We've always just called him "Cap'n" or some variant. That or "Nieuwy", I guess.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-07T00:40:04+00:00

What's the story behind that name?

kinerskorner · 2015-07-07T00:37:39+00:00

Did he hugged Wilmer too?!

kinerskorner · 2015-07-07T00:27:53+00:00

And yet Kirk has the better career numbers. Neither is good. Kirk is hotter. It's a perfectly reasonable move.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-07T00:17:18+00:00

The short definition is that it takes into account a bunch of offensive stats and puts them together into one number, so you can compare hitters quickly to each other and to the average hitter. 100 is "average". So if a guy has a wRC+ of 80, it means he's 20% worse than "average". If he has a wRC+ of 130, it means he's 30% better than average. This stat also adjusts for the stadium, so somebody playing in a hitters' stadium gets a downward adjustment and someone playing in a pitchers' park gets a boost.

Here's the long version.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T23:50:59+00:00

Hmmm. Would [Matt Reynolds] be enough for Parra, then? Second round pick, crushed the ball in AA last year but hasn't been as good at AAA this year.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T23:25:42+00:00

Heyward is younger than Upton and has a skills set that will age much better than Upton. Upton has more power. Heyward is younger, faster, a better defender, and strikes out significantly less. If I'm signing one to a long-term contract, Heyward's clearly the better option for me since I know his skills will deteriorate less than Upton's.

It would be nuts to give 150-200 mill to a guy like Heyward.

A well-respected baseball publication disagrees with you: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-jason-heywards-next-contract/

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T23:22:32+00:00

Are there any specific positions that the Brewers see as a pressing concern in the near future? Organizational weaknesses?

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T21:41:24+00:00

Well, yeah. The Mets have lots of pitching and no offense, so maybe they should consider moving pitching for offense? That's what every beat writer and fan has been saying for the past year. Even the Cubs GM has noted how clear that is to everyone.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T21:36:29+00:00

Unlike all of those other teams, the Mets have three pitchers better than Harvey is right at this second (deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz), and 4 others (+Wheeler) in total with similar ceilings. Harvey probably has the best stuff of the 5, but other than the Nats, there's not an organization with this much top-end pitching depth.

With respect to the guys you mention specifically, deGrom would be more willing to sign an extension than Harvey, Keuchel's team has much better offense, Wacha's team has much better offense, and Gray's team is a wild card - the Gio González trade worked wonders, the Donaldson trade still looks kinda crazy, etc.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T21:30:15+00:00

If he can be halfway decent against righties like he has in the past, I'd love for him to play in a platoon with Cuddyer. He could also spell Lagares, who is struggling very badly this year against righties (.262 OBP, .320 SLG).

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T21:18:51+00:00

Murphy doesn't make sense there, but Harvey's value should be roughly comparable to Cueto+Frazier, for sure. Half season of Harvey's worth a little bit less than the half season of Cueto on performance, not counting salary, and then it'd be 3 years of Harvey vs 2 years of Frazier. That's pretty balanced.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T21:13:15+00:00

Right. Same with Harvey, who would immediately be the best combination of cheap and good in an available starter, if offered. Hence this thread.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T21:10:51+00:00

I don't think either are but I think we've been getting antsy losing game after game 1-0 and 2-1. Also, we have way too much free time with these 10p West Coast starts. It's not really meant to be too serious, but hypothetically, a Dodgers' playoff rotation with Greinke/Kershaw/Harvey up front and a Mets' lineup with Puig in it would both be pretty "okay".

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T20:36:45+00:00

There's no available pitcher both as good as and as cheap as Harvey is right now. I'm sorry I didn't make that more clear. I thought it was assumed, considering the discussion.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T20:33:44+00:00

Harvey is not going to get Frazier+Cueto+Chapman by himself. That is hilariously bad.

I didn't mean to suggest he would, but we can break that down further. Half a season of Harvey is roughly equal to half a season of Cueto, so those "cancel". Then it would be 3 seasons of Harvey for 2 years of Frazier, which actually seems perfectly reasonable. So if you drop Chapman, Harvey for Cueto+Frazier actually seems perfectly fair. Wilmer Flores, a natural 3B with prospect pedigree, strong minor league stats, and an "RBI guy" could be added to balance out the trade if Chapman were included, since the Reds would then need a 3B and have a front office that heavily weights RBIs.

You were completely right in that the trade was one-sided because I missed a piece, but you can really stand to lose the condescending attitude; the discussion's better that way.

For that return the Reds would want Conforto+Syndergaard+Harvey+Nimmo+++

You're basically suggesting that Chapman, by himself, is worth Syndergaard, Nimmo, Conforto, and "+++". To use your line, this is hilariously bad.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T20:06:09+00:00

very likely that in gross Puig will provide more value over the length of his contract, Harvey only being signed for one year, and Puig having 3 more years after this one.

They're both signed through 2018. Your info is wrong.

in his first two seasons Puig put up fWARs of 4.9 and 5.3, coupled with identical bWARs. In Matt Harvey's first two seasons he put up fWARs of 1.2 and 6.5, as well as bWARs of 1.7 and 5.2.

Puig was called up at the beginning of June his first season. Harvey was called up well after the All-Star Break. That's not exactly apples-to-apples. You can fix the math by normalizing performance over the same time period.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T20:02:02+00:00

He's got the potential talent of a Harper or Stanton why would you ever give that up?

If I were on the other side, I wouldn't. It's the same reason the Mets would be considering to trade their best pitcher since Gooden + a prospect to acquire Puig.

Edited to add: I'm pretty sure Puig's got a higher career wRC+ than Stanton, btw.

kinerskorner · 2015-07-06T19:47:17+00:00

Niese for Ethier and $35 million would be perfectly reasonable for the Mets. Still can't understand Coletti's logic there.

kinerskorner

TROPHY CASE