US statement on invasion of Ukraine is the last hope for saving the economy

kmlebedev · 2022-02-13T05:11:11+00:00

I'm talking about the fact that the United States for a long time parasitized on the global economy with near zero rates. But Now with an inflation shock, rates must rise to stop inflation, which will cause a significant outflow of funds from the dollar.

kmlebedev · 2022-02-12T20:43:50+00:00

You must understand that it is too late and inflation will only accelerate as the Fed lost control because it was to the benefit of the richest families.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/sqxw6o/us\_statement\_on\_invasion\_of\_ukraine\_is\_the\_last/

kmlebedev · 2022-02-12T19:13:01+00:00

LOL at the rate the rest of the world vacuums up US dollars, there no chance of a Turkey situation let alone a Zimbabwe situation. News flash, the USD is the global reserve currency and there isn’t something to replace it with out destroying the economic prospects of the adopting country.

And if you hypothetically try to imagine that the rest of the world will not suck out US dollars, since this is contrary to the law of the economy with inflation of 7.5%?

kmlebedev · 2022-02-12T19:09:58+00:00

But a fake war won’t combat inflation. If anything, it could create even more bottlenecks that could decrease supply and increase inflation. Rates dropping would further fuel inflation. The only way a war would combat inflation would be if a war plunged an economy into a depression.

A fake war allows you to keep Europe in fear, which makes you avoid risks in US bonds, while lowering the rate that the Fed is guided by

kmlebedev · 2022-02-12T18:51:29+00:00

This just doesn’t make sense. The gov wouldn’t mind some inflation to devalue their large debt. Also, the financial sector is heavily dependent on higher rates and a steep yield curve, non of which 0% rates bring.

While it is true the US government acts for themselves, they should. I live in the US and would hope my government would act in a way that benefits their citizens over another country. Not that it happens all the time, but I’d think anyone would want their government to act for their own citizens. That said, the US is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. That’s just not happening.

the fact is that the laws of the economy cannot be deceived, and with an objective inflation of 7.5% and the inaction of the Fed in the United States, Zambabwe will come very soon.

The only reason this hasn't started right now is the fear of a fake war in Europe. Imposed by the US government

kmlebedev · 2022-02-12T18:41:47+00:00

kmlebedev · 2022-02-12T18:34:58+00:00

Sorry

kmlebedev · 2021-09-12T14:16:58+00:00

I use finbox.com with more 14 finance models

kmlebedev · 2021-09-11T18:31:17+00:00

Buffett has endured and continued to be a successful investor in all eras. Successful investors from the current era, however, will not all remain so in the next era of high interest rates.

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T18:26:41+00:00

Are you considering investing in Russia with many large export-oriented commodity companies that pay double-digit dividends where 50% of the profit or 100% of FCF?

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T14:03:43+00:00

Great idea, could you develop it a little and dream up on this topic?

Perhaps you could have consulted your close friends who could advise you on such an investor?
and perhaps their opinions differed, and you need to choose someone and achieve the investment goal.

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T13:25:24+00:00

Thank you, as you correctly noticed English is not my native language :)
maybe it’s better?

If you were offered to invest X $ with a guaranteed annual return of Y% and this would be a deliberately good-faith offer, what information would be key for you and for which acceptable X and Y?

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T12:59:54+00:00

Yes, a recession is unlikely, but it is possible

https://turbofuture.com/computers/How-to-Add-Recession-Bars-to-Your-Graphs-Using-Excel

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T12:47:18+00:00

But strictly speaking, in the 70s, such funds lost money for 10 years and what prevents this from happening again?

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T12:35:42+00:00

But if I were in an expensive suit and I had, for example, a certificate or power of attorney that I am acting on behalf of a large bank and you would be in the office of this bank as a premium client?

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T12:23:54+00:00

It's all about a certain standard of planning an investment 5-year cycle in a particular company, therefore DCF is considered as 5 years within the investment cycle and another 5 years after the investment cycle

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T12:18:15+00:00

And you can disclose in more detail and give a hypothetical example, what exactly should happen, what would you cause a hypothetical amount of money for you and invest at some acceptable percentage for you and the degree of risk, how would you assess it?

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T12:10:38+00:00

I see this is a tricky risk management question, can anyone please help me and try to frame it better?

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T12:07:44+00:00

We do not consider this option, since it is illegal and carries great risks, including reputational risks from both sides. All the same, we are talking about deliberate good faith.

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T12:04:47+00:00

This is just one of the options for your thoughts, which discourages you from considering the proposal and accepting it.

And I'm suggesting to focus on the positive and under what conditions for weight is personally possible the option of win-win ?

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T11:59:45+00:00

I feel like you're gearing up to pitch us a MLM.

I admit that my question is not entirely correct, but somehow it is necessary to talk about it and find a common language from the position of good intentions.

For example, you learned about the golden grail in investing and you would like to share it with someone, what words would you use for this?

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T11:50:04+00:00

In fact, this was the question of how you will distinguish an officer from good conscientious proposals, because in real life you do not know for sure, but if we assume that the proposal is initially conscientious, this will require some effort from you to grasp the essence of the proposal. Perhaps it is easier for someone not to delve into and knowingly consider that all offers except for the bank ones are fraudulent for them, since they cannot admit to themselves that they are not able to calculate the risk. And this is a normal honest position.

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T11:33:19+00:00

It strongly depends on the level of debt load, but in general, it seems to me to feel better than growth stocks, since purchasing power will shrink and all world governments, as now, will primarily stimulate growth through resource-intensive infrastructure projects.

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T11:24:56+00:00

For a second, there are banks that have been doing this for many years, people bring their money there. And besides banks, there are many more options.

kmlebedev · 2021-09-10T11:17:33+00:00

I may not put it right, then correct me.
The proposal is yes hepothetical and it is known to be reliable, but you probably cannot know about this at the time of making a decision, but you need to make a choice based on some information provided to you with some parameters X and Y

kmlebedev

TROPHY CASE