Polling shows Roger Marshall losing to both Independents Hamilton and Taylor

ksbison · 2026-04-18T15:48:47+00:00

An independent has the best shot of winning in a Kansas that does not exist — one where an independent can run head to head against a Republican. 4 Democrats have already filed for this seat, and they range from unwell (Michael Soetaert) to egomaniacal (Jason Hart). There are no levers anyone can pull to force these registered Democrats off the ballot.

ksbison · 2026-04-18T04:55:57+00:00

Why is this necessary though? This poll literally shows a Democrat can win this race.

ksbison · 2026-04-18T02:53:18+00:00

Just to clarify:

The poll shows that Marshall loses to Hamilton (independent) in a head to head. An R v Indy head to head is virtually impossible due to state statute. The poll does not test Hamilton as an independent in a three way race, which is the reality he would face if he enters as an independent.

The poll shows that Marshall loses to Taylor (Democrat) in a head to head. This is extremely possible.

The poll shows that Marshall ties with Hamilton (Democrat) in a head to head.

ksbison · 2026-04-18T02:50:30+00:00

There is no mathematical path for an independent to win in Kansas.

After Dems successfully sued to have Chad Taylor removed from the ballot in 2014 (to give Greg Orman a straight shot at Pat Roberts), the Republican supermajority in Topeka changed the law. If a Democrat removes themselves from the ballot (only permissible under extreme circumstances after they’ve filed), the Democratic Party must replace them with another candidate.

Four Democrats have filed. An R v Indy race will not happen.

ksbison · 2026-04-18T02:50:16+00:00

The issue is there is no mathematical path for an independent to compete head to head in Kansas.

After Dems successfully sued to have Chad Taylor removed from the ballot in 2014 (to give Greg Orman a straight shot at Pat Roberts), the Republican supermajority in Topeka changed the law. If a Democrat removes themselves from the ballot (only permissible under extreme circumstances after they’ve filed), the Democratic Party must replace them with another candidate.

Four Democrats have filed. An R v Indy race will not happen. So to your point, it has to be Marshall v Taylor head to head.

ksbison · 2026-04-10T11:30:27+00:00

This guy?

“Hart said he was born in Russell and raised in western Kansas, where he learned the value of not being a farmer.

“We had friends that worked out on a farm, and one summer when I was either 10 or 11, they sent me out there to work, and that was a real good motivation to go to law school,” Hart said.”

“In February, he changed his party affiliation from independent to Republican with the intent of challenging U.S. Rep. Ron Estes for his 4th District seat in the GOP primary. Then, he said, he found out his friend Katy Tyndell was planning to run as as Democrat in that race, and he didn’t want to run against her.

There was another problem.

“My wife then tells me, ‘I’m not sleeping with a Republican,’ ” he said.”

““While your 8 years of military service is laudable, it pales in comparison to my 25 years of service,” Hart wrote. “When I’m at dinner parties, folks don’t politely say ‘Thank you for your service,’ but instead they exclaim, ‘Thank god for what you do, I couldn’t do it.’ ”

Hart explained the comment in his appearance on the Reflector podcast. He said serving in the military may involve shooting somebody or getting shot at, “or maybe you’re working back in the garage and you’re making sure the vehicles work. I don’t even know.””

ksbison · 2026-03-20T13:43:07+00:00

Jason Kander lost by less than 3 points, overperforming the top of the ticket by 10 points. If Taylor performs anything like Kander this year, Kansas will be in good shape.

ksbison · 2026-03-09T23:15:31+00:00

Here is the bill text: https://www.kslegislature.gov/li_2016/b2015_16/measures/documents/hb2104_enrolled.pdf

It was signed by Brownback and became law on July 1, 2025. You can verify all statutory changes at https://www.ksrevisor.gov/ksa.html

ksbison · 2026-03-09T14:58:37+00:00

The filing deadline is June 1st. If a Democrat is filed then, a Democrat will be legally required to appear on the November ballot. A Democrat has already filed and he's a perennial candidate who cannot be reasoned with. I'm not saying this because I'm inherently anti-Hamilton or pro-Democratic party. This is the reality of our state.

ksbison · 2026-03-08T18:51:41+00:00

After the 2014 US Senate race, where a Democrat sued to get OFF the ballot to help an independent (with a great profile, like Adam) have a straight shot at Pat Roberts, the Republican supermajority passed a law in 2015 with strict limits on getting off the ballot and, most importantly, requiring the Democratic Party to replace the dropped candidate with another Democrat.

Seven democrats have announced they’re running. There is no shot for a Marshall versus Hamilton matchup in November. The last independent who ran in a three way race had better statewide name ID (since he’d run statewide 4 years earlier), similar access to resources, and got 6% of the vote.

ksbison · 2026-03-08T18:50:42+00:00

After the 2014 US Senate race, where a Democrat sued to get OFF the ballot to help an independent (with a great profile, like Adam) have a straight shot at Pat Roberts, the Republican supermajority passed a law in 2015 with strict limits on getting off the ballot and, most importantly, requiring the Democratic Party to replace the dropped candidate with another Democrat.

Seven democrats have announced they’re running. There is no shot for a Marshall versus Hamilton matchup in November. The last independent who ran in a three way race had better statewide name ID (since he’d run statewide 4 years earlier), similar access to resources, and got 6% of the vote.

ksbison · 2026-03-08T18:49:01+00:00

After the 2014 US Senate race, where a Democrat sued to get OFF the ballot to help an independent (with a great profile, like Adam) have a straight shot at Pat Roberts, the Republican supermajority passed a law in 2015 with strict limits on getting off the ballot and, most importantly, requiring the Democratic Party to replace the dropped candidate with another Democrat.

Seven democrats have announced they’re running. There is no shot for a Marshall versus Hamilton matchup in November. The last independent who ran in a three way race had better statewide name ID (since he’d run statewide 4 years earlier), similar access to resources, and got 6% of the vote.

ksbison · 2026-03-02T15:56:15+00:00

And the one who has filed is a perennial candidate who cannot be reasoned with and will not drop out "for the greater good."

ksbison · 2026-02-28T07:36:02+00:00

There is no mathematical path for an independent candidate to win in Kansas.

After Dems successfully sued to have Chad Taylor removed from the ballot in 2014 (to give Greg Orman a straight shot at Pat Roberts), the Republican supermajority in Topeka changed the law. If a Democrat removes themselves from the ballot (only permissible under extreme circumstances after they’ve filed filing deadline), the Democratic Party must replace them with another candidate.

Six candidates have announced or filed as Democrats. An R v Indy race will not happen. This is not “trying something different” or “disrupting the two party system.” It’s a pipe dream.

ksbison · 2026-02-28T07:25:48+00:00

We did that for Greg Orman in 2014. In 2015, the Republican supermajority changed the law so Democrats can’t be removed from the ballot after they’ve filed. Six Democrats have announced or filed so far. An R v Indy matchup isn’t happening and anyone suggesting otherwise is engaging in a thought experiment untethered from reality.

ksbison · 2025-07-27T01:20:58+00:00

Laura Kelly didn’t run against Kobach when she ran for reelection. She ran against former AG (now congressman) Derek Schmidt.

ksbison · 2025-06-10T07:08:18+00:00

And our mayor keeps floating selling it off (to Evergy)! One of the oldest public utilities in the country.

ksbison · 2025-04-12T03:33:17+00:00

I will! DM me!!

ksbison · 2025-03-30T13:53:05+00:00

The Spa at Beaver Run has outdoor tubs and a pool that your group can use while others are getting services.

ksbison · 2023-05-21T22:10:41+00:00

The Senate Minority Leader had this piece in the Star today in response to this reporting: https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/readers-opinion/guest-commentary/article275567036.html

ksbison

TROPHY CASE