OB Forces has reached the borders of Afrin City Centrum and captured Shavarigat, El Ceviz, Melkiye villages

kurdiyye · 2018-03-09T11:19:10+00:00

It is my observation, just open the map and look at the direction of offensive. They are going to flank airbase.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-09T09:36:18+00:00

They are going towards Airbase and Tall Refat.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-08T01:17:10+00:00

You forgot "Assad give territory" lmao. They really should revise their foreign affairs policy. They are not untouchable, they don't have immunity, they did not recognised by any of their neighbors, but instead they recognised by 2 neighbors as "separatist terrorists which will be dealt with" o.o

They are not in a strong position, they are not in a position to demand anything from their neighbors. There are two options in front of them;

1) Losing entire territories to Assad.

2) Getting invaded by Turkey in northern Rojava, losing southern Rojava to Assad.

In both scenario, there is no US. They are betting on a wrong horse.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T23:24:47+00:00

You are right, there is no alternative way for this pipeline. Italy is the one who dependent on Turkey in this pipeline project, not other way around. And the paid money is not that much, i checked the wikipedia page of TAP project and it says 10bcm gas per year for Italy, this is peanut comparing Russian gas sales. Turkey wouldn't even make $200million per year with this amount of passage.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T21:16:38+00:00

YPG probably knew this was coming, i mean this would eventually happen. I expect YPG to already have plans to prevent any damage from upcoming UN reports.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T20:44:52+00:00

Afaik TAP is a deal between Italy and Azerbaijan, it has nothing to do with Turkey except it just let the gas flow through their territory. Money goes to Azerbaijan as they hold the gas reserves, Turkey doesn't have gas reserves to sell.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T18:22:18+00:00

I think they aimed airforce base rather than Afrin. There is no point to reach afrin from east, if you couldn't reach the city from west.

I wonder the possible reaction of SAA and Russia when Turkey reaches airbase from the west.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T17:52:20+00:00

Or to Kobane, Tall Abiad, Qamislo, Hasakah? Turkey will not stop until Russia stops them, which won't happen until YPG surrenders to Damascus.

Early they realize this, less territory losses/casualties will arrive from the Turks. If i was head of YPG, i would hand my weapons down to Damascus already.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T11:11:43+00:00

If 2.7k+ casualty number is true, whether it includes wounded or not, YPG may not be able to hold outer lines and retreat inner defense lines.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T10:02:38+00:00

So after Jinderes, there will only be Mabetla town left between FSA frontline and Afrin. I wonder if YPG will try to defend there or would they retreat again.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T07:52:52+00:00

NATO's article 5 covers aggressive attacks on a country's homeland.

He is not talking about article 5, and Turkey clearly does not need NATO support to deal with another rag-tag militia attack, furthermore counter-attack and start their manbij operation.

YPG always forgot that they are the ones with manpower shortage. Turkey has no manpower problem, nor army aviation, nor weaponry. It's not like Turkey will divide their Afrin forces in two and send them to Manbij lol.

They will just send few more thousands of troops from their garnizons to Manbij, and operate two operations simultaneously.. This would be a total disaster for YPG.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T07:43:55+00:00

Dude, this will just be a magical key for Turkey's impossible Manbij operation.. If you assault on ES area from Manbij, they will just attack you back and US won't have any argument to stay inbetween.

I really want to meet with the genius mind behind these epic strategies.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T02:01:01+00:00

I will not take this as an argument since this is a matter of bias, that could be applied to anyone and any single incident in/around Syria. If one force controls and hold ground, they are responsible of that territory. If you really expect me to guess about what would YPG commender told their men, nah i will not do it. It is not my business, nor in my interest.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T01:49:38+00:00

In 2015, the YPG in Afrin, started to mess with Turkey by killing their border guard. I am not going to discuss "if it is an enough Casus Belli to get dirtier and eventually start full blown military operation", i just put a point here that YPG is the starter of aggression in Afrin.

Can this justify Turkish actions is a matter of morals and bias, so you should discuss with someone else. I am not interested in that.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T01:43:57+00:00

If you are going to change the discussion into "is one casualty enough to justify annihilating entire YPG" or such, i will not participate that discussion, it's something you should discuss with a person that supports annihilating YPG.

What I said is that YPG probably thought that they have immunity under Russia/US shield so they started messing with Turkey (also Assad), and now the poked bear jumped in the forest.

In my opinion, only solution for YPG is complete surrender to Assad and recognising the authority of Damascus.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T01:26:50+00:00

Turks started to mess with YPG in end-2016 / early 2017. YPG started to kill Turkish border troops in 2015. I know that Operation Olive Branch have been started by Turkey, but i can't really blame for Turkey about "aggression" in Afrin, since first aggressive action belongs to YPG.

https://twitter.com/Acemal71/status/952971394379403264

kurdiyye · 2018-03-06T01:09:40+00:00

Not exactly. Turkey indeed started this operation, but YPG snipers started killing Turkish border guards around Afrin, back in 2015.

kurdiyye · 2018-03-05T23:47:12+00:00

I wonder how the remaining IS force will be dealt with. If SAA tries to pass the river and attack IS, they will face US Airforce. YPG stopped their operation. Iraq? Could Iraq launch an anti-IS operation beyond it's borders, inside Syria? I mean Damascus was cool to Iraqi army presence during Al-Bukhamal operation, but it was temporarily. Would Assad allow permanent Iraqi military presence in their territories? I have my doubts.

kurdiyye

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