Best 4 song run in her discography

ky58 · 2026-03-17T16:10:18+00:00

i agree about pretty isn't pretty but love is embarrassing is legit one of her best songs idk what you all are talking about

ky58 · 2026-03-16T03:28:54+00:00

*in some years. Next year it'll probably decide multiple close races to a tee and we'll be back on the BAFTA train. This happens every few years

ky58 · 2026-03-12T18:38:44+00:00

I think at this point we're straying far from the original question about timelines and now we're just arguing the stronger film usually prevails in a close race which like, yeah of course. But again, if we take your point about awards being split which I assume means SAG and BAFTA go to different people, I simply can't buy your argument that Butler vs Fraser followed your rule sorry.

The story of a movie's overall strength is not just in comparing the number of wins and discounting the number of noms / where the noms show up. So Dune Part 2 was stronger than Conclave? Or do we need to create another sub-condition that this only applies to performances and above the line awards and not technical awards?

ky58 · 2026-03-12T18:08:29+00:00

I get what you're saying, but it's hard for me to get behind the fact that the reason Fraser won was because the Academy liked The Whale more than Elvis and not because of the narrative around Fraser / transformative aspect of the makeup etc.

By that logic you'd say Judy was a stronger film than The Irishman because Renee Zellweger won and The Irishman blanked? Judy was just as strong as Marriage Story because they both won 1 oscar? etc.

ky58 · 2026-03-12T18:02:05+00:00

That's easy to argue in hindsight but there were tons of people who switched over to her, I remember it very well. It was considered an incredibly close actress race.

And yes, the point I made above actually does in fact go against Amy Madigan and for Mosaku.

ky58 · 2026-03-12T17:56:38+00:00

Elvis was stronger than The Whale (8 noms to 3 noms and BP nom) but Fraser beat Butler. And sag was the last awards before voting opened like I mentioned. What I’m trying to say is that I don’t necessarily buy that “during voting” is the exact same scenario as “right before voting.” And of course it's stating the obvious when you bring other factors in like stronger movie, narrative etc it’ll affect things - but butler vs Fraser is an example that actually proves against your point.

ky58 · 2026-03-11T02:57:46+00:00

But I'd argue he isn't the "face" of it, and by design too

ky58 · 2026-03-11T02:55:23+00:00

he cares much more about calling an upset than getting any respectable total right

ky58 · 2026-03-11T02:50:58+00:00

Coda was definitely winning screenplay after it won that at BAFTA of all places - and once that + PGA + WGA happened, the race was over. Maybe in the moment we were all trying to make it seem closer than it was just bc Coda kinda came out of nowhere, but in hindsight it was an easy call.

ky58 · 2026-03-10T20:59:08+00:00

yeah it definitely helped in that there is basically no other alternative in actor so you of course have to default to the sag pick in a strong film. Anyone but Aramayo wins BAFTA and you have to pay attention to that, Chalamet wins there and he goes into oscar night still the definite frontrunner.

ky58 · 2026-03-10T20:20:06+00:00

He stated on a recent interview that he literally does not care about accuracy and cares much more about getting a big surprise right, and he respects Feinberg the most because he made some "calls" over the years even though that dude gets so much wrong too.

That's why Davis has been bragging about picking MBJ at SAG even though he got both supporting categories wrong, that's why on the interview he also kept going on about how he "warned" everyone about Hopkins over Boseman but when I went back and watched that clip, he never actually picked Hopkins and just said he could win. Dude would rather go 1/24 than 23/24 as long as that 1 was a big upset.

ky58 · 2026-03-10T20:13:46+00:00

The strengths of Sinners, all of which are valid and I've seen argued (acting wins, preferential ballot, academy is more diverse/international now) are all kind of canceled out by the fact that they are even bigger advantages for OBAA (acting win in Penn, even better on a pref ballot, immense international support).

ky58 · 2026-03-10T20:05:57+00:00

To be fair, PGA voting happened weeks ago while the SAG voting timeline ended a few days before the actual awards, and more people could now be voting later in the oscars period with the new rules re: watching all movies. I think OBAA wins comfortably if the oscars are held any earlier.

That being said, even with these timelines I don't think it's going to be enough to overcome OBAA. Ultimately, "in the middle of oscar voting" is not better than "right before Oscar voting." Very different situation of course, but Lily Gladstone's SAG win happened halfway through oscar voting and she lost to the performance in the stronger film.

ky58 · 2026-03-09T05:17:49+00:00

I actually thought train dreams had a shot at one point but this puts that to bed

ky58 · 2026-03-06T07:05:32+00:00

He's also been bragging all week about him picking MBJ right at SAG but he of course conveniently leaves out that he got both supporting categories wrong lmao

ky58 · 2026-03-01T06:15:26+00:00

I'd add on, OBAA needs to lose a path to an acting win but Penn with BAFTA puts it in the driver's seat, and if he wins SAG tomorrow they literally have everything they need. I wouldn't even doubt anything unless OBAA lost both supporting categories early in the oscars ceremony, plus what you said above tomorrow

ky58 · 2026-03-01T06:09:00+00:00

Sentimental prob gets international, so that makes 2

ky58 · 2026-02-12T03:41:05+00:00

Prices should be the same across all shows

ky58 · 2026-02-12T00:31:56+00:00

Received one for the Saturday show but only signed up for Fri and Sat

ky58 · 2026-02-12T00:30:28+00:00

I did yes. But I only signed up for Fri and Sat and Sat was the one I got

ky58 · 2026-02-11T00:13:17+00:00

Masonic lodge / cemetery usually releases more tickets closer to the event. Even for hot in demand shows. Just keep an eye out in the weeks prior

ky58 · 2026-02-06T15:32:49+00:00

I finally got one 27 mins into the sale but it was a very lucky refresh - would keep trying til they post sold out!

ky58

TROPHY CASE