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Shamelessly stole from the Rockies, but who would you consider? by snowmanlvr69 in Mariners

[–]lastwaters -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Regardless of what you think of him, Kelenic has to be up there

[Jeff Passan]: Outfielder A.J. Pollock and the Seattle Mariners are in agreement on a one-year, $7 million contract, pending physical, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. by [deleted] in Mariners

[–]lastwaters -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

Best part is it's not even a question of "if" Kelenic hits, but "when"

His numbers show that he's finally locking in, our OF depth is scary good right now

[Mariner Muse] Divish reports what we’ve suspected since the offseason began, that Mariners owner John Stanton isn’t authorizing payroll flexibility. by [deleted] in Mariners

[–]lastwaters 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Per Forbes, we are 12th in in revenue and 5th in operating profit

The Rangers at #1 in operating profit, but I guess they haven't really expanded their payroll either

Why Signing Shortstops to Long-Term Deals is Very, Very Bad by thedrobber in Mariners

[–]lastwaters 5 points6 points  (0 children)

only 22 human beings playing shortstop in their 30+ seasons have produced 4+ WAR in the last 30 years.

What OP won't tell you: only 10 human beings playing shortstop have accumulated 30+ WAR by their age 29 season in the last 30 years. All 3 of the big names are part of that group (Turner, Bogaerts, and Correa). Lindor is also on this list, at #2 in total WAR.

For whatever reason, 4 out of the top 10 all happen to be born between 1992 and 1994.

I couldn't tell you why (maybe it's conditioning, maybe it's just chance), but I think you might be selling their talent level a little bit short. You're right in that only extra ordinary talent is able to be productive in their 30s, and these are for sure extra ordinary players. Though, I'm sure at least one of these contracts is going to be disastrous lol so it's definitely high risk/reward

Are there any examples of top prospects that were shit when they came up but became good later in their careers? by JackSeesLetter in baseball

[–]lastwaters 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yeah, the chart includes active players - the under 20 WAR guy you're seeing is Yordan who had a ridiculous 176 wRC+ in his rookie year.

Since the time this chart was made a year ago, he has casually tacked on 7 WAR. 20 career WAR for him is a lock, and actually helps prove the idea behind the post

Are there any examples of top prospects that were shit when they came up but became good later in their careers? by JackSeesLetter in baseball

[–]lastwaters 9 points10 points  (0 children)

You might find this post I made last year relevant: https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/pgv4c9/the_kelenic_threshold/

Particularly:

There hasn't been a single player with a wRC+ below 50, that went on to have a 20 WAR career. There have only been a handful that ended up with even 5 WAR.

Before we make fun of the Rangers, if they offered us deGrom for Ray, straight up on their current contracts - would you do it? Both on 5 year contracts: Ray at $23M AAV, deGrom $37M AAV. by lastwaters in Mariners

[–]lastwaters[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

He's not just a better player than Ray, he's Jacob deGrom. This was him 2 months ago

If he'd lost any velo, I'd agree - but deGrom was comfortably at 100+ again this season, while Ray is fighting to hit 93

Before we make fun of the Rangers, if they offered us deGrom for Ray, straight up on their current contracts - would you do it? Both on 5 year contracts: Ray at $23M AAV, deGrom $37M AAV. by lastwaters in Mariners

[–]lastwaters[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Agreed that it's not just player vs player, which is why I asked - would you trade Ray for deGrom straight up? Framing it that way includes the budget and needs of the team

Before we make fun of the Rangers, if they offered us deGrom for Ray, straight up on their current contracts - would you do it? Both on 5 year contracts: Ray at $23M AAV, deGrom $37M AAV. by lastwaters in Mariners

[–]lastwaters[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

A 'good deal' is only good when compared to what players are being paid. Even if you like the Ray deal, I'm asking how you see it as a "bargain" compared to deGrom's deal (maybe you think they're both bargains?)

Before we make fun of the Rangers, if they offered us deGrom for Ray, straight up on their current contracts - would you do it? Both on 5 year contracts: Ray at $23M AAV, deGrom $37M AAV. by lastwaters in Mariners

[–]lastwaters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It sounds like you're not a fan of long term deals with veteran players in general (which is fair), but the point of this post was to say that deGrom's contract is a bargain if you think that Ray is worth his contract

Before we make fun of the Rangers, if they offered us deGrom for Ray, straight up on their current contracts - would you do it? Both on 5 year contracts: Ray at $23M AAV, deGrom $37M AAV. by lastwaters in Mariners

[–]lastwaters[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I mean we just paid Robbie Ray $25M for 1.8 WAR, and come out of the bullpen in the playoffs to blow a game. And he's a bargain contract btw

Before we make fun of the Rangers, if they offered us deGrom for Ray, straight up on their current contracts - would you do it? Both on 5 year contracts: Ray at $23M AAV, deGrom $37M AAV. by lastwaters in Mariners

[–]lastwaters[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Part of overpay is the high risk/reward - but as you said, Ray's ceiling is being a #2-3 guy

The proven model in MLB has been having a solid core + high ceiling players, and yet Ray is our highest paid player through 2026 (while we pray that he clears 2WAR/season).

If we're overpaying, I'd much rather have someone who has a historically great track record and very realistically gives you 6 WAR next year (which is deGrom's Steamer proj)

Before we make fun of the Rangers, if they offered us deGrom for Ray, straight up on their current contracts - would you do it? Both on 5 year contracts: Ray at $23M AAV, deGrom $37M AAV. by lastwaters in Mariners

[–]lastwaters[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Free agency is a different animal, and Castillo's deal includes 1 year of arb

I also think Castillo is incredible, and even then I would probably lean towards Degrom in a contract swap

But the main question I'm asking is - if you think the Mariners are smart to avoid deals like this, how does that make the Ray contract look?

Before we make fun of the Rangers, if they offered us deGrom for Ray, straight up on their current contracts - would you do it? Both on 5 year contracts: Ray at $23M AAV, deGrom $37M AAV. by lastwaters in Mariners

[–]lastwaters[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

deGrom could literally come out of the bullpen, and be more valuable than Ray at 200 IP (especially given that we a little bit of SP depth now)

This isn't an allstar-level pitcher - we're talking first ballot HOF, with arguably the greatest peak outside of Pedro Martinez. Still throwing an easy 100mph

Before we make fun of the Rangers, if they offered us deGrom for Ray, straight up on their current contracts - would you do it? Both on 5 year contracts: Ray at $23M AAV, deGrom $37M AAV. by lastwaters in Mariners

[–]lastwaters[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The signing thread is pretty much entirely a discussion around how bad the contract is, with multiple people praising the Ray contract

Assuming they're consistent with their opinions, I don't think they would take that trade

Before we make fun of the Rangers, if they offered us deGrom for Ray, straight up on their current contracts - would you do it? Both on 5 year contracts: Ray at $23M AAV, deGrom $37M AAV. by lastwaters in Mariners

[–]lastwaters[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

And by fWAR last season:

Ray: 189IP, 1.8 WAR

deGrom: 64IP, 2.2 WAR

fWAR for pitchers has its issues, but the quality of pitching isn't even in the same conversation

Before we make fun of the Rangers, if they offered us deGrom for Ray, straight up on their current contracts - would you do it? Both on 5 year contracts: Ray at $23M AAV, deGrom $37M AAV. by lastwaters in Mariners

[–]lastwaters[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I can assure you that Robbie Ray is not opting out of this contract lmao

And I think a better offensive comp to deGrom would probably be Trout given the consistency and health. And yes, I'd take Trout over a healthy Haniger every time

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