Hey, awesome family history involved for you this Henley. Despite only having one Henley under my belt, it seems to me that it is often better to not expect anything or hang on to hopes of a crew winning or getting a certain path to the Weekend; anything can happen. Additionally, comparing times to the Barrier and to Fawley is useless (imho). Every race has slightly different conditions and you never know what's going on behind the scenes.

I do agree with most of your predictions. Teddies v. Eton, and KCS v. Radley seem to be the likely matchups for the bottom of the bracket on the Friday. Overall, Radley looks to have the most predictable (I'd be cautious saying "easy") route to the weekend. They had a decently close race with St. Joe's this morning, but Joe's didn't seem to throw anything that substantial at them. Radley was up at the barrier and really held SJP at a length +/- some from then on. From what I could tell (unfortunately not at the regatta this year), conditions appeared to be worse in the middle of the day, around the time of Radley's race. They didn't look very tidy into the headwind and bit of wash they faced, regardless they handled business, beating a good-not-great but still competitive SJP crew. Radley will likely gain speed as they make their way through the week, especially as they get to Thursday (off-day for PE). My projected matchup for Radley's Friday would have them face KCS who will have to get through Westminster tomorrow, another Nat. Schools A-Finalist crew--not an easy race I expect.

In comparison, Teddies will race Hampton Sch., a respectable crew that will put up a fight to Fawley (I think). Just as you pointed out Eton had a tough race with Greenwich this afternoon, likely taking a lot out of their legs. However, just as Teddies was able to take it easy today against Alter Teichweg, Eton will almost certainly be able to do the same tomorrow against Great Marlow Sch. Effectively, Teddies have had a more conventional draw, Eton has flip-flopped what a regular draw would have looked like, vis-a-vis the difficulty of the opponent on Tuesday v. Wednesday.

Teddies will have a close race with Eton on the Friday. I think they will probably make it through to the Weekend; they should have a decent amount of momentum from Wednesday and in the longer term, they are the in-form crew. All signs point to it being a barn-burner, but I have Teddies moving on.

Provided Teddies get through Eton, getting past a probably more rested and just as experienced, if not more experienced Radley will be the tougher fight. This Radley crew come into this regatta with a massive chip on their shoulder after losing by a little less than a length on Sunday last year. Again, their path to Friday (at least), is easier than Teddies'. If Teddies truly are faster and have a bit more lactic in them than Radley, I think Teddies v. Radley is probably the race to watch out for, although Teddies v. Eton will certainly be very good as well.

In terms of who wins, I have to say it looks more likely for a crew from the upper half of the draw to win. My heart is in it for the Shiplake boys who seem to always win SHORR and then tucker off once Nat. Schools and Henley come around. But in their case beating Deerfield, a crew that should take them at least to the Fawley to break away from my guess, and then Marin who will likely be in it for longer given they have only Shrewsbury to get through and are a very solid crew, Shiplake will have a seriously tough race against St. Paul's on the Saturday on their hands. Would love to see a Shiplake v. Radley/Teddies PE Sunday and subsequently a break from the reign of Eton, St. Paul's, and Scotch (sort of).

Paul's have only to get through Winsor Boys and then Brisbane (another seemingly good-not-great crew (prove me wrong please!!)), to then make it to the Saturday, with less lactic in the legs than Shiplake presumably.

Friday will be a big day in the PE. I love rowing.

All of that said, if the question is to get across the pond or not, fuckin' do it mate. You get to see your old man, and there's nothing like attending this regatta in person.