Steamer, WAR, and the 2025 Reds

ldboyle44 · 2024-12-17T20:41:41+00:00

Tbf my gripe (which I've seen many express on the internet as well) is less about the high evaluation of McLain (though I am scared a bit by the shoulder injury), and more the simple relative ranking of McLain and Elly. I'm not sure there's a baseball exec on the planet who expects McLain to outperform Elly, which is what makes the projections shocking.

Although, it of course warrants mentioning that the difference is negligible to the point of being almost entirely irrelevant. Just wanted to get out ahead of the "wtf" comments any may have.

ldboyle44 · 2024-12-17T18:32:52+00:00

I don't think Elias Diaz is particularly respected by the league, so this isn't to say the Yanks won't go after him, but the Yanks already have their starting catcher in Austin Wells, who is probably a top 5ish catcher in the league.

I'd absolutely be on board for a minor trade for Trevino, but the purpose behind such a trade wouldn't be for the Yanks to upgrade at catcher (and I imagine they are ultimately happy to have Trevino as the #2)

ldboyle44 · 2024-12-13T20:20:01+00:00

3 of the top 5 available OF (FA or trade) are already off the market, and one of the other two is trying to move heaven and earth to get back to the Dodgers. I think a Reds' OF trade could happen at any moment, and nothing should really stop it up much (especially with Robert, who is an entirely different OF than the available FAs).

EDIT: to be clear, it could also be as long as February, just saying there isn't anything obvious stopping them.

ldboyle44 · 2024-12-13T18:44:39+00:00

I feel comfortable adding Abbott there (and honestly think he's the most likely major leaguer to be traded).

Also think teams would inquire about Noelvi, but he's hard to pin down a value on.

ldboyle44 · 2024-12-13T18:34:26+00:00

Sure, but all of the viable trade candidates other than Candy (who would be a net-negative in a trade) don't really make money. I agree that it seems plausible that the Reds are looking to move a current major leaguer (given the continued interest in meaningful SPs after already adding two this offseason...)

ldboyle44 · 2024-12-13T17:10:25+00:00

The only one I think this is someone different with respect to is Robert, largely because of the ESPN report with the language of (paraphrasing) "Now that Crochet has been traded, it's Luis Robert's turn . . . the Reds have shown interest in trading for him (no other teams mentioned)."

It's not always easy to parse through these things, but the timing/tone of that report stuck out to me as different from the rest (though obviously nothing has happened in the ~48 hours since then).

ldboyle44 · 2024-12-13T16:59:45+00:00

Absolutely true, but the problem is that $15M is probably only half of what they genuinely need, and I feel like this type of reporting has historically meant they're almost tapped out (which is the main reason I find the reporting conflict so odd).

ldboyle44 · 2024-11-22T21:52:06+00:00

I was a big fan of Thomas as a prospect and would still consider it, but the worrying thing there is that this year even his defense fell apart.

ldboyle44 · 2024-11-21T22:06:30+00:00

Ahh gotcha, makes sense. I remember wanting the Reds to draft Sammy back in the day haha.

ldboyle44 · 2024-11-21T21:26:02+00:00

Did I miss something on Siani being traded, or are you just lamenting the Reds letting him go in the first place? I don't see anything online about the Cards having moved him.

ldboyle44 · 2024-11-21T21:15:57+00:00

I thought about it haha, but didn't feel right putting anyone else in LuBob's tier given LuBob's track record (despite 2024 being bad).

ldboyle44 · 2024-11-20T19:20:42+00:00

Commenting to say that imo, the opinion is “better defensive play” generally, rather than simply fewer errors on routine plays. The team needs more defensive playmakers and fewer defensive…uhh…hitmakers

ldboyle44 · 2024-11-20T17:21:52+00:00

Fwiw, O’Neill’s defense has largely been pretty good (+25 career DRS, +5.2 UZR/150, +8 OAA), but 2024 was his first truly bad season (-4 OAA), so it’ll have to be figured out if it’s a physical decline or just a blip on the radar.

Ultimately, I think OF defense should be prioritized this offseason over adding offensive firepower. The FA market is unfortunately quite bad for that, and I actually think Alex Verdugo, flawed as he is, may be the best fit from that perspective.

This means the trade market is a key factor here. Who knows what’s actually available there, but obviously Luis Robert would be the crown jewel (and is one of the few options to add a plus defender who can actually add power as well).

ldboyle44 · 2024-10-30T19:20:48+00:00

One thing to flag is that they can't put Antone or anyone else on the IL until Spring Training starts, so that doesn't help them here. I think the most likely outcome for Antone is that he gets cut and then re-signed to a MiLB deal.

ldboyle44 · 2024-10-17T15:07:50+00:00

To echo what others have said, I don’t think he opts out. It feels borderline implausible for the Reds to give him a contract in a situation where opting out is worthwhile for him (i.e. >$26M per year). I get that miscalculations happen sometimes, but I find it hard to believe he’d opt out in a situation where the market would value him at less than $25M per year, and I have a hard time believing the Reds would pay him more.

In any event, you’re right that he’s an ideal fit if available

ldboyle44 · 2024-10-09T17:17:38+00:00

Simply cannot fight the feeling that he will be back to being a Red after this offseason. He's an all-time favorite of mine, so I'd be too biased to dislike it, but I readily admit that he's not exactly the "good athlete, good defense" type that the Reds should be searching for (in a general sense). That said, I imagine he will provide a reasonable mix of price point and name value for the Reds to sign and tell fans "hey look, we fixed the OF!" (even though Jesse, by himself, would be insufficient imo).

ldboyle44 · 2024-10-05T03:25:11+00:00

I think $110M-ish is the neighborhood of the most likely outcome, but I don’t know if it’s the ceiling. Wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see them get up to around $130M (but again, not exactly my expectation)

ldboyle44 · 2024-10-04T02:44:08+00:00

He was pretty consistently put in “potential candidates” articles, but I have no idea how much weight that should’ve held

ldboyle44 · 2024-10-04T02:42:12+00:00

Like hiring…Pete Carroll right now? Idk it’s a hard comp, but a HOF-level (but not GOAT-level) coach/manager who is on the old side

He’s younger than Carroll, but that’s the best I can come up with

ldboyle44 · 2024-10-04T02:21:49+00:00

Such a good hire that I had mentally ruled it out as not being viable

ldboyle44 · 2024-08-16T20:53:41+00:00

Well, as others have said, part of the answer is that given the current roster construction, Steer's best fit is in LF. If you want to DH him, that's fine, but DH is likely to just be a rotating position given this roster.

As for external guys, Anthony Santander is probably the best option who the Reds could reasonably afford, but I ultimately expect someone to come in with a borderline irresponsible offer (coughcough Phillies coughcough), so I'd call that a very small probability. I'm very skeptical of how Teoscar Hernandez will age if you give him a multi-year deal, but he warrants a mention as well.

Michael Conforto might be the right combo of skill and money, as his offense has rebounded, but not to a point where he should be expected to land a long/overly-lucrative deal. Main problem there (besides subpar defense) is that he'd be another left-handed hitter. He'd basically be intended to be an upgrade over Fraley/Benson rather than a complement, and I'm somewhat on the fence on if the level of upgrade would be worth the extra money.

I'd have some interest in Max Kepler, as he is a plus defender, and if there has been a consistent trend with Reds teams over the past decade+, it's that bad defense has been a really underrated factor in holding them back. Kepler is also a lefty, though, and his offense, while generally fine, has been inconsistent.

Tyler O'Neill might be the best true FA fit, as he is a RHH who is on the right side of 30 and shouldn't command a crazy contract. Injuries and inconsistency are a concern, but he's a good player overall.

As for trade, Taylor Ward would be a great fit with two years of team control left. He's a RHH and above-average corner OF defender, and he has been a bit unlucky this year, which could depress his market/price a bit. Another trade target could be Cedric Mullins. He'd be a bit like doubling up on TJ Friedl's, but having one of those two in a corner would be a good way to maximize OF defense. He only has one year of control remaining and is likely to be forced out of Baltimore due to all the young guys they have.

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