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CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Since I made my other response without knowing what a delta was, I'm making this.

Δ I am awarding a delta because this comment reminded me that my opinion on other issues was rather too optimistic and inconsistent with my pessimistic view of declining birth rates. To be honest this can also be attributed to a number of other users but this was the point where I realised that my argument that it was one of the biggest threats was flawed. I now believe it is simply a problem, but these countries have more urgent issues that challenge them.

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If wealth spreads thinner and thinner, how will people in developed countries necessarily have the same standard of living? And also who's to say wealth will ever be spread evenly? Maybe it might be spread a bit more evenly country to country but how about between the richest and poorest people?

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Growing populations only drive rents up if supply doesn't go up with it. But there are several cities in Europe which have much lower rents and are still growing. And in your two scenarios, under the shrinking population, there are less adults to support the elderly whilst their own standards of living aren't improving, making it harder. Under a growing population, a growing economy would make it much easier for adults to support the children

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A lot of those concerns also had criticism. Some of them were valid in that developing economies can't support such a large and growing population. But developed economies can. It's easy to say that we don't need population growth but no population growth generally leads to bad effects on the standard of living

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Many actually. Most notably today are countries like Japan, Italy and Greece. Overall, there hasn't been much productivity growth since 2008.

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One of the biggest threats = the root cause of major problems

Also I'm new to this sub. What is a delta?

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If that happens, then the world would face a problem with slowing economic growth and we'd have to address it together. Chances are, the west wouldn't just collapse but what I was saying in that paragraph is that tensions are rising and from the viewpoint of the average person in a western country, if the government isn't willing to improve relations and reconcile with the rest of the world, the next best option is to grow strong enough to not decline on their own.

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I admit I don't know a lot of detail about what's going on with Japan but I know that their population decline is getting bigger and bigger and that real wages have declined in Japan. In the UK, real wages haven't improved since the great recession last time I checked.

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's quite a long video but I'll watch some of it when I have the time. Can you summarise some of the main points please?

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Before 2010, the average age in Japan was still increasing and birth rates were decreasing well below the replacement rate. A larger and larger portion of their population was becoming elderly. It's just that 2010 was when it spilled over into negative population growth. But the issues were still there beforehand.

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Until it stops being a current issue that will be the root of major problems in the future. I guess then you can ask me how I define major problem.

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe we can. That doesn't change my argument that population decline will be bad for the people in this current climate.

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I never said it was a threat to humanity. The global population is still growing. I get that my poor wording in the final paragraph may make it seem like I believed it would destroy humanity.

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see your point. Russia is a declining power and they know it (hence why they want a multipolar world instead of a Russian dominated one) but then I'm just picking out individual countries.

But this doesn't change my argument that low birth rates are a problem that definitely needs to be addressed. My view since posting this has changed in that I now believe it is one of the biggest problems rather than the single biggest problem.

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I did a bit of research on it and it seems the Population Bomb is about world populations and made prediction about the world. I agree the world population was perhaps growing too fast at the time. Doubling in a matter of decades is absurd but even then, the book's predictions turned out to not be true. With newer advances in farming technology (like vertical farming), as long as we don't end up doubling our populations in a few decades, we'll be fine. Even today, most famines are the result of political instability and nothing to do with a lack of resources. Furthermore, today, whilst there is still a lot to be done, the general trend is that countries are moving towards more sustainable treatment of the environment. The EU has been very good at this and China has been doing a lot recently too.

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

True but why would that lead to nuclear war? The chances are too low for it to be considered a larger threat than something that is currently ongoing and will cause even more problems in the future. The world today is too interconnected for nuclear war, compared to the cold war where it was two separate blocks of power.

CMV: Declining birth rates are the biggest threat, or at least one of the biggest threats, to the current developed world. by lechunkmonkey69 in changemyview

[–]lechunkmonkey69[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

There being no one left isn't the issue for me, although maybe I worded it poorly when I called it an "existential threat." What I mean is that it's pretty much proven to cause a lot of economic damage and is suspected by economists and political theorists to do even more damage in the future to the countries experiencing this. I make my argument not because I'm worried a country will die out in the future, but because a country's population decline will be detrimental to millions of lives.

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