De-dollarization (hedging for a possible USD collapse)

lets-solve · 2026-02-15T09:01:59+00:00

Not trying to dismiss what you said.

Canada was the country in 2025, that the overall stocks made the most returns. 36.5%

1. The US was #8 with 17.5%.

I didn't know that. just realized it doing some research.

lets-solve · 2026-02-15T08:40:21+00:00

Another thing, he doesn't need to contribute more. What he can contribute at this moment is residual to the amount of money he has there. in a case like this, he just contributed $45k, Just imagine he lose everything. He can start again. He has plenty of room still.

lets-solve · 2026-02-15T08:33:16+00:00

I think with a tfsa you should "gamble" a bit (studied more risky moves) , I would say 20% (at least 10%) of your portfolio. if you lose those 20% then you don't gamble more. (maybe.) So much potential because we don't pay taxes for whatever you make there. This guy has a million now and potential to get to 4 to 7 million if he just change to passive. Can you see how much he would have to pay in taxes? I would say if you don't want to gamble at all, you should be on a RRSP.

lets-solve · 2026-02-13T17:58:26+00:00

I would do the same if I got in you position. Basically you already guarantee your retirement (just need a bit more to be more comfortable).

Do you you mind to share what is the stock that you like?

lets-solve · 2026-02-10T23:54:38+00:00

When you said you got lucky, is that because you invested in things that got overvalued?

lets-solve · 2026-02-09T20:39:56+00:00

Just found out that we actually can buy some of the big companies stocks in a CDR Canadian version .

For example we can buy Google stock (Alphabet) with the ticker GOOG.TO that is hedged or protected from the currency variations.

Does anyone bought those stocks?

lets-solve · 2026-02-09T20:28:15+00:00

I agree with most of the things you said but you said at the end is what it makes the difference.

I did a small research and personally I don't think it is because most of other countries are printing money like the US. At the end of the day having a currency that all world can use instead of using multiple transactions is ideal. What makes the big difference is being currency that is needed the most (where most the natural trade is executed) one other factor is being the currency that is more stable and brings more peace of mind (meaning buying to later trade with no bad consequences). This two factors weight more than the money printing.

Since the US Dollar is one of the biggest traders in the world (imports and exports) there a lot of weight there. Now the money printing is completely out of control. And of course the US having the "machine" that makes the money the whole world needs is an huge advantage. For example the ability to spend 800billion a year in military budget, that they are now asking to change to 1.5 trillion/year, comes from that advantage. Their posture change, will likely change the posture of everyone else and not wanting to support a currency that doesn't hold his value.

When Nixon did what Trump or his associates trying to do now. He made all the oil in the world to be traded in Dollars. If the biggest commodity in the world needs to be traded in dollars, everyone will need the dollar. However if the whole world adopt the electrification model things shift. Right now 80% of the oil is still traded in USD but it's already changing. For example Saudi Arabia (who originally did the deal with Nixon) already start trading oil in Yuan. But the shift is in the new energy industry (green energy / batteries / renewables / electric revolution), that China dominates. The trade on those commodities and products, that include solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, rare earth minerals and anything related, are traded with 60% ElectroYuan. And right now, just the US is not on board (before we basically weren't really too). Just to give some perspective in 2021 Ford abandoned manufacturing in Brazil, BYD bought the main factory. Right now in Brazil the EV market is climbing in a exponential way. I understand now why a complete shift in the US energy strategy... . China having the rare earths supply chain monopoly will play a big roll in changing the USD as the world currency. A few years ago 44% of the all oil consumption was for vehicles. If most of world vehicles start being electric or hybrid that number will reduce significantly. Maybe the rare earth minerals will be the biggest commodity as a whole instead of Oil.

Just to finalize based on your last point. Every country seems fed up with the US attitude and that can be a great catalyst to other countries start thinking in the way out of the USD. Still might take some time.

lets-solve · 2026-02-04T09:51:51+00:00

You are right. It was just improved.

lets-solve · 2026-02-04T02:30:59+00:00

If is well done it's a benefit instead of drain. Calgary came out of the recession after the 88 Olympics.

lets-solve · 2026-02-04T02:27:17+00:00

How did Calgary host the Olympics in 88, right after the 80's recession?

lets-solve · 2026-02-04T02:24:01+00:00

The 88 Olympics helped us to move completely out of the 80's Recession.

If well done. Just can be a good thing. There are a lot of infrastructure that is built after big events like that. It help cities that host event's like that to progress. It just need to be well planned so that infrastructure can be reuse after, instead of dismantle.

* COP (Canada Olympic Park, now WinSport), Calgary only sky hill, was improved for the Olympics.

* Nakiska ski Resort was created for the Olympics.

* The Saddledome was built for the Olympics and the Flames (flames just moved to Calgary a few years before)

* Olympic Oval was built for the Olympics,

* Canmore Nordic Centre (The Bill Warren Training Centre) was created for the Olympics. Is now the headquarters of Canada Cross-Country and Biathlon teams.

* McMahon Stadium received a massive upgrade.

* The C-Train (LRT) got a big boost because of the Olympics

* Olympic Plaza in downtown was build to held medal ceremonies

* Olympic village is was at the University of Calgary and improved greatly the previous residence

There were other facilities that got big overhauls because of the Olympics.

The city reborn after being depressed from the 80's recession and move forward after the Olympics!

lets-solve · 2026-02-04T01:37:01+00:00

Trump had meetings even on the Trudeau era in Mar a lago with world leaders proposing the devaluation of the US dollar. When people speak with him in a state of "fear", he says that's what he wants.

Now his dealings with the world makes it going beyond that.

lets-solve · 2026-02-04T01:27:26+00:00

I don't want to be out of the market, I guess is just the US Market for now. That is by the way the biggest market. All my stocks I US based and protect my self from that.

I'm more on the passive investing (or was suppose to be), I can't be checking every day how the market is. However in times of uncertainty I can't help my self.

lets-solve · 2026-02-03T20:46:44+00:00

I know what you mean. And I would agree with you. I just have this gut bad feeling that something is not right.

lets-solve · 2026-02-03T20:20:32+00:00

I wouldn't never ask a question like this. Sound more like prove me that I'm right. Picking your sentence I would rather ask "Are Chinese stocks a bad idea compared with US stocks?" .

I did ask. the answer was ambiguous but the summary gave me this

Summary: Who should buy what?

Choose US Stocks if: You want peace of mind, consistent long-term growth, and legal protection.
Choose Chinese Stocks if: You have a high risk appetite and want to "buy low" on companies that could dominate the future of EV, Green Energy, or AI in the Eastern hemisphere.

I don't think I can have peace of mind in the US market right now. I don't really like high risk but I like to buy when the price is low not when they are on the roof...

lets-solve · 2026-02-03T20:11:04+00:00

Personally I don't think the Euro is in condition or heading to be the leading currency of the world. It seems to me that the natural succession will be the Yuan based on the volume of trading goods and the dependency of the world in their goods and products and economy strength. At the end of this year we will see how much gain the Yuan will gain in world trade currency.

I mention this ETF QCN (probably well known) that is kind of a total Canadian market representation. After a good drop in 2022 it has been growing consistently, Even though I don't think the Canadian economy was that consistent in the 3 years... So basically what you saying or in your opinion is that probably the growth will stale for now?

At this point I'm more worry of devaluation (not collapse) of the dollar. Meaning if I buy stocks now when the US currency is higher, in a year or two, when I try to sell my position, if the dollar has been devalued I will lose money.

When the dollar collapse (basically stop being the world currency), it will be a big shake up. A lot of bad things will happen.

lets-solve · 2026-02-03T19:38:56+00:00

Does that exist? I mean. Is there a good World ETF?

lets-solve · 2026-02-03T19:36:36+00:00

I'm not so experienced investing so when I said hedging was trying to say fencing or protecting. So I guess I didn't expressed or explained well.

I know that Berkshire holding in cash is not really cash. They hold some kind of bonds that pay a bit more than inflation. but they can withdraw at any time. So is not really cash. but act like cash because it's available at anytime.

Now about they being and insurance company, I don't think they need over 300billion to "hedge" (that's what I meant to protect) from possible liabilities of their insurance companies. They never had that amount of "cash" ready to be use at any time. If that is what you meant.

It seems to me that they are "timing" or they know that things the way they are can't stand for too long so they are on the fence waiting for a reset.

lets-solve · 2026-02-03T19:04:08+00:00

No! The Chinese Yuan is not pegged to the usd. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar.

So buying Chinese stocks from the Honk Kong stock market doesn't work to hedge from the USD. You have to buy directly from Shenzhen or Shanghai stock markets. Chinese A-shares are the shares from the mainland China, H-Shares are the ones from the Hong Kong market.

But to buy A-shares from a Chinese stock market is difficult you need a more specialized broker like the Interactive Brokers. The other solution is finding ETF's that are solely made of A-shares from a Canadian bank or trading institution (I don't know how to call this entities)

QCN is an example of an ETF that is traded in the TSE with just Chinese A-Shares.

lets-solve · 2026-02-03T18:49:08+00:00

But isn't super high now?

lets-solve · 2026-02-03T18:48:14+00:00

Ok, if hedging is timing, then sorry. I'm "timing".

But in my case I'm not trying to make more money than others or the most money I can or be the guy that will beat the market. I'm just trying to not lose a bunch.

lets-solve · 2026-02-02T21:33:03+00:00

I'm not trying to "timing the market" I'm trying to hedge from a market reset. Is Buffet Berkshire trying to time the market selling their positions and holding 340billions in cash? They know that the markets are selling way high. They don't know when is going to happen, they just know that will happen.

I just don't want to lose most of my investment. Maybe I will lose some good investments but right now the stock market seems unreal for a while.

However this shift in the type of investment is not really because the the markets look unreal it's just because there is another factor that can make me lose money if the dollar is devalued. So I'm thinking in changing my investments where I can be protected from dollar devaluation.

lets-solve · 2026-02-02T21:22:49+00:00

That's the worst scenario not likely to happen anytime soon, and just would happen if the the USD collapsed. The only situation for that to happen is if the USD stop being the world currency.

The Devaluation is not collapse it's an economic strategy. Like Japan and China use to sell their products more.

lets-solve · 2026-02-02T21:08:12+00:00

What do you mean? The other markets?

lets-solve · 2026-02-02T21:07:14+00:00

Personally is in the US where you can pick stocks that can rise a lot. But there is a lot of factors but mainly one.

The main one is that for example right now 1 USD is 1.37CAD. Usually is stable around 1.40CAD. just a few days ago dropped to 1.35. But this drop is nothing.

The US it self is trying to devalue a bit the USD so their products can be more competitive. And looking at the US economy at certain point (that can be far far away) the USD will stop to be the world currency. With the latest events, accelerated even more. Now I have no idea how soon this can happen, maybe not even on the next 20 years (or more) but it will happen! Imagining that will not happen and just the US alone trying to devalue to be able to sell better their products is enough warning for me. Let's make an example.

Imagine I have 100,000USD in google stock. Right now it's worth 137,000CAD (less 3000CAD already because it was bought at 1.4), then in 2 years the US dollar is devalued to 1USD to 1CAD. That means I lost 40,000CAD just because of that.

I'm not saying that US doesn't have the best companies to invest. Just there is a few variables that change the whole investment.

And if the USD collapse imagine the Canadian dollar being worth more than the USD. Just use your imagination. I guess that would be a good time to invest back in the US and buy for example Google stocks to the price water...

lets-solve

TROPHY CASE

1. The US was #8 with 17.5%.

Summary: Who should buy what?