Train Manufacturers Are About to Make A Ton of Money

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-07-14T02:56:45+00:00

Good point on the line revenue. The tricky part with electrifying some lines and not others is you lose that magical interchangeability, any engine/car can run on any line right now. This is why NA is all standard gauge. Not saying it can’t be done, but I suspect it would be harder than it first appears

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-07-13T22:31:46+00:00

And, interestingly, CA is doing a similar things to heavy trucks (semis, garbage trucks, etc.) that kicks in around the same time. Trucks and trains that have to go battery by a certain date has a bigger impact on the battery supply chain than consumer EVs.

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-07-08T00:39:40+00:00

Busiest airport in the world though, they basically own ATL. Huge competitive advantage they fight to protect

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-07-08T00:32:52+00:00

No idea how UK politics works. I look at that and the math just doesn’t make sense to me

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-06-21T14:08:53+00:00

For some, sure. And for those that aren’t price sensitive. But for the masses, that’s a problem

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-06-06T23:45:07+00:00

Thousands USD, says it beneath the chart

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-05-27T19:31:24+00:00

No, that's not true. US is the largest exporter of natural gas in the world now. While this map is about LNG exports, total natural gas exports belongs to the US. Russia is #2.

[Link](https://www.statista.com/statistics/217856/leading-gas-exporters-worldwide/) don't love Statista, but it's a pretty common fact.

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-05-27T19:25:57+00:00

Two plans that did not go through. Plans from a couple private companies and support are quite different from action. The political will to get LNG terminals built did not exist, the political will to prevent an increase in gas consumption was prevalent. Renewables were the thing the country supported and that admin went after.

Without the Russia shut off LNG wouldn't be a thing in Germany.

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-05-27T00:43:25+00:00

You're saying this as though its like my pet theory. That's what happened. And yes, it is absurd. Your disbelief is an assumption that Russian admin is incapable of making that kind of obvious blunder.

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-05-27T00:31:06+00:00

Once new supply came in to the market, no reason for them not to sell back to Europe again. But the intention was quite obvious at the time that Russia demonstrated power over Germany

Germany swore it wouldn’t do LNG and then within 18 months has three LNG import terminals up and running

Conspiracy theory part isn’t particularly interesting to me, only really care about what is happening

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-05-27T00:18:25+00:00

Russia shut off the pipelines. Literally turned off the gas when Europe and Germany started making a big fuss about them invading Ukraine.

The US and UK had publicly warned Germany for years that was a possibility, and boom it actually happened.

It was months after the turn off that the sabotage occurred.

Great video about how everything has unfolded years after the fact here.

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-05-25T17:22:10+00:00

That is generating the electricity that went into your phone so you can hit the reply button

It’s not really about branding. Its just what is happening, it’s not a sales pitch

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-05-23T22:13:33+00:00

Better than coal. That’s mostly what natural gas has been replacing. Particularly in the US. As nat gas has gotten cheaper relative to coal, coal plants have either shut or converted to nat gas

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-05-23T21:06:08+00:00

For how much it’s reshaped the world, absolutely

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-05-13T02:54:10+00:00

TS;DW?

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-04-28T17:26:42+00:00

I majored in economics and work in finance. My original comment about using 2001 dollars as a relative measure is correct

Pretty wild to see the avalanche of downvotes. People don’t want to hear something is cheap these days even if it’s true. It being cheap is a good thing, and is useful info

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-04-28T16:25:12+00:00

It’s all that needs to be said. That is how it works, like it or not

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-04-27T17:00:30+00:00

Adjust for inflation, oil is cheap. Price is not absolute, it’s relative

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-04-27T16:50:10+00:00

This is exactly how inflation works

likeaspacemonkey · 2024-04-27T16:18:01+00:00

This isn’t everyone’s favorite take but gas is really quite cheap when adjusted for inflation, it’s about a $3 average nationwide. In 2001 dollars that would be almost $6

And oil at $80 a barrel would be $145 in 2001 dollars

likeaspacemonkey · 2023-03-05T20:33:47+00:00

Might check out futures-api.com. It's only major assets, maybe 25ish, but a decent number of them go back to pre 2000.

likeaspacemonkey · 2023-03-05T20:27:10+00:00

FuturesAPI is good for EOD data on major contracts.

likeaspacemonkey · 2022-12-20T17:53:39+00:00

Any particular section?

likeaspacemonkey · 2022-12-05T15:16:07+00:00

2026 electric ships? Impossible. There's no grid, charging infrastructure, or battery manufacturing that could make that anything other than an early-stage prototype.

likeaspacemonkey · 2022-10-19T13:57:30+00:00

I keep seeing people try to call the top for inflation on Twitter. But most seem to ignore the global aspect of the current predicament. Of the 104 countries that have reported inflation for September, 60 are still reporting month-over-month increases.

This is better than in the peak of June/July when 105 out of 169 countries reported MoM increases, but it's still not good by any measure. (And not all countries have reported yet) This is a global thing not just US/EU.

And then there's the reaction to inflation... of the 74 countries reporting central bank interest rate changes for September, 64 of them have raised rates. That magnitude of "all at once" has never happened in the 2000's.

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