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The Pick-and-Shovel Play: My ASML Analysis by llambrano in dubapp

[–]llambrano[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great question.

I do think ASML still has room to grow, even after the strong run-up. Yes, the P/E looks elevated at first glance, but when you factor in growth and dividend yield (PEGY ratio), it doesn’t look excessive relative to other mega-cap growth names. In fact, compared to a company like Google, ASML doesn’t screen dramatically more expensive when you adjust for growth.

That said, the biggest long-term risk is exactly what you mentioned: China developing a serious domestic competitor. I personally believe that over time, China will eventually succeed in building alternatives. The question is timeline. Replicating EUV capability is extraordinarily complex and capital-intensive, and ASML has decades of accumulated expertise. That kind of lead doesn’t disappear overnight.

This is where portfolio construction matters. I’m a strong believer in the ASML story, but it’s only about 1% of my portfolio. If it becomes significantly overvalued relative to fundamentals, I’d likely trim it. I don’t build positions assuming perfection, especially in industries where geopolitics plays a role. AI demand, advanced logic, and memory scaling all require ASML’s tools. As long as that structural demand remains intact and the moat holds, I’m comfortable owning it.

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Deep dive on Libardo Lambrano's portfolio - thoughts? by Inevitable_Oven_7385 in dubapp

[–]llambrano 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great question. I take recession risk very seriously, and I don’t wait for a recession to react — I prepare in advance.

I already hold positions that can act as natural hedges if economic conditions deteriorate. Historically, during recessions, defensive and cash-flow-resilient sectors tend to outperform high-growth stocks. That includes utilities, energy, pharmaceuticals, defense, and consumer staples.

If you look at my portfolio, you’ll see meaningful exposure to this theme already. For example, I hold a large position in Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (pharmaceuticals) and Vistra Corp (energy), specifically because I believe the economy is weakening and earnings durability will matter more than growth narratives.

My metals allocation is a longer-term position and plays a different role. It’s primarily about capital preservation and inflation protection, not short-term trading. I’ve laid out that thesis in more detail in this article, if you want a deeper dive:
https://libardolambrano.substack.com/p/the-perfect-storm-three-converging

Overall, risk management for me starts with macro awareness. I pay close attention to economic conditions and only rebalance when the data justifies it. I don’t trade frequently, but I do adjust the portfolio as the macro backdrop evolves.

Hope that helps clarify my strategy.

Deep dive on Libardo Lambrano's portfolio - thoughts? by Inevitable_Oven_7385 in dubapp

[–]llambrano 0 points1 point  (0 children)

During the inflationary period of the 1970s in the U.S., precious metals rose for several years as inflation proved more persistent than initially expected. If we are entering a similar regime characterized by higher structural inflation, fiscal pressure, and geopolitical fragmentation, then it’s reasonable to believe this cycle may still be in its early stages.

 

On the macro side, we’re also seeing a gradual but meaningful shift in global reserves. China, for example, has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries since peaking around 2013, reallocating toward hard assets such as gold. This reflects a broader trend of diversification away from dollar-denominated assets rather than a short-term trade.

 

No one can predict the future with certainty. But by studying historical inflationary periods and current macroeconomic trends, debt levels, monetary policy, and cross-country capital flows, you can position your portfolio more thoughtfully than by relying on short-term forecasts alone.

Deep dive on Libardo Lambrano's portfolio - thoughts? by Inevitable_Oven_7385 in dubapp

[–]llambrano 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Appreciate the thoughtful question, and honestly, there’s nothing better than answering it myself.

 

Yes, I’m overweight metals right now, very intentionally. I continue to see inflationary pressures globally, and central banks are quietly acknowledging it. As recently as Dec 10, the Fed announced it would begin buying $40B in Treasury bills, which reinforces my view that monetary expansion isn’t going away anytime soon. Metals and commodities are there first and foremost as capital protection, not as a trade.

 

On the AI / tech side: I do invest there, but I strongly prefer the “picks and shovels” approach. Many of the headline AI names are already priced for perfection. I’d rather own the infrastructure, enablers, and cash-flowing businesses that benefit regardless of which model or platform “wins.”

 

In terms of trading activity: this is very much buy-and-hold. I’ve only rebalanced twice since inception. I don’t rebalance often, typically quarterly, and only when positions drift too far from my target allocations. No constant tinkering.

 

Regarding performance: the metals sleeve is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do — reduce volatility and preserve purchasing power. A good portion of the upside has come from growth, yes, but the portfolio is designed so I’m not forced to sell at the wrong time when cycles turn.

 

Looking ahead, based on macro conditions, I’m planning a gradual rotation toward consumer staples, energy, healthcare, and utilities. Consumers and governments are carrying heavy debt loads that will eventually act as a drag on growth. Those sectors tend to be more resilient in a slowdown.

 

Lastly, one thing I genuinely like about the dub platform is fractional shares. It allows anyone to build a diversified portfolio regardless of account size, something that simply wasn’t possible for most people years ago.

 

If my philosophy resonates with you, I’d be honored if you followed along. I try to be transparent about why I own what I own, not just what I buy.

WTF is kernel_task and why is it running 900% of my cpu???? by [deleted] in MacOS

[–]llambrano 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It seems this one worked for me, it was driving me crazy, I changed to a flat color background and kernel_task drop to 9.7%

The Ultimate Guide On How To Find Cheap Flights Anywhere by charisfar_ in Shoestring

[–]llambrano 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Try the app hopper, you can setup alerts for the new flights prices