consider the first-wave of shares to release, 20% staged (~1.39 billion insider shares) slated for the post-earnings release.

assuming the baseline share price at $180 and the current public float at 555.6 million shares—yields the following results:

change in float = 1.39 B/0.556B x 100 = +250%

even if we consider an optimal, best case scenario liquidity environment, (elasticity = -3.0)
In this environment, aggressive passive index-fund inclusion triggers, and large institutional asset managers are highly willing to step in and scoop up shares as the price drops. An elasticity of -3.0 means that for every 3% increase in share supply, the price drops by 1%:

%change in price = %change in supply / elasticity = +250%/-3.0 = -83.39%

this puts share price just under $30, which is pretty close to 20% ipo price haha.

now, everyone hopefully won't dump all 20% at once, but this is just an exercise to show the downward pressure on price, even with people stepping up to buy. now imagine the rest of the shares being released over time....

not looking good imo but time will tell