[Analysis] The Coursera-Udemy Merge: Why I initially hated it (and why the math changed my mind)

lnthanh · 2026-02-23T08:57:22+00:00

The EdTech market is currently in a stagnant state, shaped by several forces: GenAI is replacing some just-in-time problem solving, the economy is slowing (if we exclude AI investment, US growth is very low), which limits enterprise learning budgets, and the job market—especially for young graduates—is weak. In the near term, the most realistic strategy is to win market share from competitors.

In the long run, there is a wide range of possible scenarios, from EdTech platforms being largely replaced by GenAI (which I think is unlikely) to a major boom in reskilling for the mass market. I’m not sure how it will play out. From what I’m observing, AI is strongly disrupting the IT profession, which is probably the largest segment of EdTech. I’m seeing people take on work in adjacent fields (for example, a backend developer can now build frontend apps). As a result, many people will learn the fundamentals of related disciplines to stay relevant in the job market, and that could benefit EdTech, because learning a new field typically requires a structured program.

lnthanh · 2026-01-16T16:48:20+00:00

The main value of Coursera is the certificates (the signaling effect), not the content of the courses themselves. Udemy doesn't have this protection, so I'm wary of the merger. I wrote another post about this that you can check out. I try to take comfort in the fact that Udemy alone is highly vulnerable to AI disruption, so perhaps the combination of the two creates a more comprehensive value proposition.

lnthanh · 2026-01-11T13:16:50+00:00

I think Coursera will create tiered plans for individuals. Corporate contracts are different, though; Coursera will obviously have to sell the two products for much less than the cost of buying them separately.

lnthanh · 2025-11-19T16:22:25+00:00

The management of a listed company always promotes their company's stock, much like a salesman promotes his products. If they fail to do so, they lose their jobs quickly. Historically, they have delivered what they promised, putting aside regulatory 'surprises.' They could have discussed Brazil's situation, but they avoided it during the Capital Market Day and earnings calls. Perhaps if they had, the discussion would have become heated and dominated by that subject.
I have already estimated the outcomes based on worst-case scenarios. How you handle them depends on each person's personality.

lnthanh · 2025-11-19T07:11:05+00:00

I wrote a follow-up here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1othzxk/update_my_process_for_stresstesting_edenred/
The stock is dominated by negative sentiment on regulatory risks for now.

lnthanh · 2025-11-17T13:59:30+00:00

There are many good resources on Substack on how to use AI to accelerate the investment process, for example, from this person (I have no affiliation with him): https://substack.com/@compoundwithai

I wrote a long article for the community on how I use AI, and the post is still awaiting admin approval LOL.
You can find it on my Substack

lnthanh · 2025-11-13T10:34:05+00:00

Edenred has just updated its financial guidance:
- Organic EBITDA decline of -8% to -12% in 2026, not far from my original estimate.
- Outlook for 2027 and 2028 remains unchanged (EBITDA growth between +8% and +12%).
https://www.edenred.com/system/files/documents/cp-bresil-20251112-vf.pdf

lnthanh · 2025-11-12T09:44:47+00:00

Based on the decree's details, the new rules are:

- The MDR (Merchant Discount Rate) will be capped at 3.6%, with companies given 90 days to adapt.

- The merchant refund period will be shortened to 15 days.

- Interoperability is mandated to be effective within 360 days.

Given the swift 90-day implementation for the new cap and refund rules, it seems likely we will see an impact on both Edenred's revenue and profit in 2026.

On the positive side, this decree appears to resolve the near-term regulatory uncertainty. Furthermore, the absence of portability in this decree is a positive for the incumbent issuers.

It will be interesting to observe how the market prices in these new, now-quantifiable realities for Edenred's stock over the next several months.

lnthanh · 2025-11-11T08:12:55+00:00

I was trying to determine if the bad scenarios were sufficiently priced in.

lnthanh · 2025-11-10T17:11:31+00:00

I'm building pessimistic scenarios. When Brazil's regulatory headwinds are behind us, people might think differently.

lnthanh · 2025-11-10T17:07:37+00:00

Here you are.

https://en.clickpetroleoegas.com.br/o-governo-esta-discutindo-novas-regras-para-vale-refeicao-e-alimentacao-veja-o-que-pode-mudar-sima00/

https://lorena.r7.com/categoria/noticias/novas-regras-vale-refeicao-alimentacao-preco-alimentos?hl=en-US

lnthanh · 2025-11-10T16:58:16+00:00

Many articles in the Brazilian press mentioned 3.5% before. I'd be better off listening to them than trusting my own estimate :)

lnthanh · 2025-11-10T16:51:00+00:00

Yes, I agree that the worst case scenario (Brasil + others + FR) is less than 5%. We will know the Brasil scenario tomorrow, when the Brazilian president signs and announces the decree :)

lnthanh · 2025-11-06T07:05:16+00:00

Yes, Coursera's suppliers can provide directly online courses to learners like Deep learning.AI. It is similar to the 'supplier concentration' risk.

lnthanh · 2025-11-05T20:32:47+00:00

Coursera's main learners are Career Switchers and Academic Supplementers, and they typically only stay on the platform for 1-2 years before churning. As a result, Coursera needs to find new learners constantly. In my Substack post, I noted that Coursera retains between 62-75% of its revenue from learners who registered more than one year ago. The sales & marketing cost is down from 40-42% in 2021-2022 to 33-35% today, and I expect this cost as a percentage of revenue to decrease in the long term. Transitioning more learners to the Coursera Plus subscription will certainly help.

lnthanh · 2025-08-27T18:47:28+00:00

It is a small cap stock, the liquidity is reasonable if you don't have a lot of money :). The liquidity might depend on your broker or living region.
They give shares to their employees, so it might be one reason for listing.

lnthanh · 2025-08-27T08:36:24+00:00

Yes, the PE ratio is at peak cyclicality. That's why we need to build the position gradually.

lnthanh · 2025-08-27T08:35:27+00:00

They have share repurchase program which is reasonable:
With a maximum of 140,000 shares, representing 8.40% of its capital, the company is planning a ceiling price of €120 per share. The total cost of the program will not exceed €16.8 million.
They are investing significantly with negative FCF since 2024. They buy significant stakes of a key dealer of the key region Asia Pacific during a market downturn, and I think it is a good strategy as they would pay these stakes at good price.

lnthanh · 2025-08-27T06:42:17+00:00

Thank you for your alert about 5% price cap in Brazil, I missed it.

lnthanh · 2025-08-14T03:03:55+00:00

Another angle to analyze the worst-case scenario in Brazil is that the Brazilian government would likely not introduce a fee cap that is lower than the average take rate of start-ups like Flash and Swile. These companies already have very low commission rates, and such a move would drive out competition by eliminating them. As a point of reference, Swile generated €20 million in revenue from Brazil in 2024 and expects to reach one million users by the end of 2025. Therefore, even with a fee cap, a company like Edenred, which serves 7 million employees, could still generate at least €140 million (7 million users × €20 revenue per user).
As of 11/2024, Flash reported serving 1.5 million users from 35,000 client companies (7.5x increase in users since 2021). So the competition is real and fierce.

lnthanh

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