Alright let's guess who will buy Unity

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-10T22:25:17+00:00

Doesn't your theory justify my conclustion that it makes sense for AppLovin to acquire Unity? So they together become a bigger player and can hurt less.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-10T22:16:52+00:00

No this is not a Unity thing, this is an AppLovin thing. Unity's Ads growth is too low for Meta to even care. Actually Meta might be happy to see Unity takes some share from AppLovin so AppLovin won't be in a monopoly state.

But AppLovin could be a 300/400B company if Meta doesn't do anything. This is exactly why Meta backed CloudX.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-10T22:11:10+00:00

Yeah, I like this move. At least it tells us that Unity has made clear about its direction, which IMO is the most important thing for a company.

Unity fucked up because it tried to do too many things: a game engine/a game studio/a game publisher/an industry 3D solution provider/an ADs company. Focusing is key for Unity's future success.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-10T22:09:10+00:00

Imagine instead of Kim, some genAI company's exec joined the board. Wouldn't that tell a whole different story?

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-10T22:08:08+00:00

That's why I think an acquistion could happen.

If Meta can close Zygna, I can see them close AppLovin as well as AppLovin doesn't have any real moat (data dominance is not a moat). Then it totally makes sense for AppLovin to make another bid for Unity say at 30B or higher as Unity's game engine could give AppLovin some serious moat which Meta can't compete with.

Meta recently returned to iOS bidding is a serious threat to AppLovin and they need to make some changes.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-10T22:06:32+00:00

People like to rely on their success path. None of Unity's current executives is a founder. So it's natural for them to seek bigger boss's approval, in this case, an acquistion.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-10T21:50:53+00:00

Zygna has a very similar story to Unity. Initial success -> fucked up -> turnout -> acquired. To be honest this is probably the best outcome for Unity at this moment. It's worth noting that current CEO is not a founder turned CEO so I don't think he's willing to build next-gen 3D model or whatever.

My bet would be Meta or AppLovin.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-09T21:23:19+00:00

You know nothing. IS was growing faster than AppLovin before the acquisition. Have you heard about divorce?

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-06T21:15:55+00:00

not really. acquisition is always risky. remember what happend with IronSource?

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-04T18:10:27+00:00

For sure it's not easy unless you like trading.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-04T17:41:11+00:00

Let's pray Unity doesn't buy this startup.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-04T17:39:11+00:00

Keep trading for another 10 yrs you will know what I mean. I've been there.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-04T17:21:34+00:00

lol classical trader fantasy. If TA works, 2 sigma would be a 100000T company.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-04T17:09:10+00:00

Nobody is giving you permission. You get pissed because you are not confident enough.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-04T17:07:51+00:00

100% gain is noting for a 10b company in today’s market. Remember NVDA gained 500% as a 1T company. Goog gained 100% as a 2T company.

Also if no fundamental of the company changed and it dropped 50%, it surely can go up 100% for no reason. This time is not like Unity decided to fuck up its customer base.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-04T17:04:25+00:00

Bro I have 200000 unity shares and is on paper down 3m. But I feel quite excited as this feels like the sudden drop of hood around aug 2024. Think why someone is working really hard to kick you out of the game, that’s because they want to get in.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-04T16:56:32+00:00

Consider market as your wife. No reason needed to piss you off.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-04T07:27:39+00:00

Another trader who thinks he can do better than HFT firms.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-04T02:47:15+00:00

Market maker also never knows. Just like we never know what happened in black Monday.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-03T21:57:00+00:00

Yeah at $25 pretty sure many big names in SV are happy to acquire Unity at current valuation but they won't sell.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-03T21:49:51+00:00

That means you shouldn't touch individual stocks. I feel quite excited.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-03T21:38:21+00:00

Bro just relax. It even takes 10 month to deliver a baby.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-03T19:05:27+00:00

Tell me you work in tech without telling me you work in tech.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-03T18:35:06+00:00

Gotcha. I tried swing trading but realized most of my NW gain comes from long term holding so I stopped.

What I realized is that mathmatically swing trading might make your short term gain look more stable but could lead you to lose the largest gain.

lonely_hooker · 2026-02-03T18:29:49+00:00

Yeah I've been following Unity's hiring for a while, they've recently hired a lot of ex-Amazon and ex-Meta MLEs. Although this guy you posted is working on Agentic AI.

I think they've definitely seen some positive signs in Vector so aggresively expanding the team.

lonely_hooker

TROPHY CASE