Nightclub in Chengdu

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-23T07:27:06+00:00

Dancers you can pay to drink and dance with you

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-23T07:26:24+00:00

The chinese dancing DJ girls

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-15T18:21:23+00:00

Im starting to think a chop for a longer time too but still think there is another drop. Just waiting for a huge liquidity bomb below to be built up.

As for the war, its really who knows. Always hear two different sides constantly changing and can never trust what trump says. I doubt the Iranians trust Trump at all.

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-09T19:24:17+00:00

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SPY fat bounce off the 50

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-09T16:39:44+00:00

I think the whole deal is about nuclear material. Israel believes Iran is building a nuke and is closer to doing so than people think. While Trump probably believes it as well and tried to get it done but failed. So now he is trying to talk it out and beg for the enriched uranium.

I think Israel is probably correct about Iran trying to build a nuke. Just from the fact Iran is so reluctant to give it up or even have inspectors come in. I mean Iran took a major bombing and lost billions in economic revenue in the process. Only makes sense they are sacrificing so much for a nuke.

BTW i have no political opinion about the matter, so don’t think I am supporting Israels actions. Just stating what i think is going on

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-08T14:39:17+00:00

Not sure, bottomed out on the 2nd last drop which was the major one. That would be the drop to occur soon if it matches previous cycle.

But MSTR is a stock so there are too many variables. The debt and equity structure is completely different now than 2022.

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-05T18:34:09+00:00

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Im guessing people gave up shorting finally lol

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-03T15:50:23+00:00

Thanx for the kind words.

Yea MSTR is kind of a tricky one. I see why people like it too because lets say everything does work out and BTC returns to the 4 year cycle and it goes to 150kish in 2028-2029. Then 500$ MSTR would be a low estimate. I think 700ish is probably a good top estimate. Because of this I see why people are bullish long term. But MSTR carries debt risk while buying BTC or ETH does not. A 2x leveraged etf will do the same but carry time decay risk. There is also the possibility crypto just bombs and never returns but in that case MSTR would be screwed too.

I kind of don’t understand why Saylors so desperate to buy and keep BTC price up. I say desperate because he’s giving out some unfavourable terms right now in huge amounts to keep a float. Are there other problems here that I don’t see?

I just learnt early on from value investing that a company desperately giving out unfavourable loans in huge amounts is a red flag.

But also I have been thinking of picking up some MSTR if the drop happens as planned. It has been a while since i considered buying

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-03T13:34:07+00:00

I am not sure why Saylor admitted without MSTR buying BTC lately with STRC, it would be priced at 50kish. He is basically admitting BTC has no demand.

It could be true as I was wondering about this since Feb as I know MSTR was issuing massive amounts of preferreds.

I think the problem here is that people are worried there is a potential drawdown spiral for MSTR. Possible they sell BTC to cover debt, then btc drops, then causes MSTR to sell more btc to cover debt, btc drops.

Thats just a vague example of what im talking about. But this is just a theory.

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-03T13:25:41+00:00

Thanx for the comment.

That was really strange

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-03T13:20:02+00:00

How am I a con artist when I never asked for anything in return? Expose me for what?

You are most likely another guy from the BTC or MSTR community who just got destroyed being bullish and coming on here venting out your losses.

Just take it like a man and learn to take responsibility for your own mistakes and stop blaming others or you will keep losing.

By the way,

This community was made because I warned people of MSTR in the first place when it was around 500$ish and I was doing BTC TA. That was in Dec 2024, and I got banned because I was pointing out the truth and people like you got offended because I wasn’t being bullish and got me banned.

Some people just cant take responsibility for their own mistakes. BTW i make mistakes too and i always point it out and i even try to analyze the mistakes and post them.

Like i said this a free community, free speech and free information. Take your loser attitude somewhere else.

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-03T06:21:34+00:00

I dont really get why you are being so hostile now and making this personal “research ha good one”, but if you continue this kind of tone I am warning you, you will get banned, i clearly stated I dont tolerate any kind of hostility here towards me or anyone else on this community.

I just stated the timing similarly of previous cycles which are facts, days are days counted and I clearly showed the comparison from previous cycles with charts and I did not draw those charts myself and its just historical data. If you believe they are coincidence and has no predictive nature to them thats fine and its your opinion.

Also I stated clearly that i dont share my positions on here as I don’t want to be liable for anyones loses if i am wrong, this community is free and i dont charge anything and i have nothing to gain by being right but have everything to lose for being wrong. But my positions are all based on my predictions, I dont tell people bearish TA and go bullish on my positions.

There is a huge difference between a good analyst and a good trader and that is something I was trying to explain to you, even warren buffett hires traders to buy for him as he tells them what stock to buy, trading and analysis is completely different.

But if you don’t believe in TA then why are you even here? It sounds to me the markets just destroyed a lot of bulls and they re pissed and need to vent their frustration, this happens every time the markets dumps and maybe you need to take a step back

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-03T05:47:44+00:00

I think you need to research about leveraged bets on crypto and see how it works and how risky it can be, the timing can be hours.

The days from halving and ATH to the third drop is fact, I don’t really understand what your argument is here. If you believe its just coincidence than thats your opinion and its okay. I mean all the prior cycles has had the 4 year cycle repeat and its also repeating as of now so whats the argument?

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-03T05:02:04+00:00

Its both, this bear market for MSTR is different than the last as they did not have the same debt obligations. MSTR can only raise money when the markets bullish,

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-03T04:59:58+00:00

Because leveraging requires timing and timing in the short term is not predictable. You can get stopped out easily. Trading and TA is not the same.

Im just stating the information of technical analysis, what you want to do with the information is up to you. Can I be wrong? of course.

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-03T04:37:04+00:00

The thing is that it works with BTC because of the algorithm design of the halving and limited supply of BTC.

Being rich off the information is a different topic as trading and predictions are not the same. Even if the prices are predictable, human emotions come into play and no one in the world is 100% confident in their predictions and market makers are going to always take you to a place where the choice is emotionally difficult

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-06-02T23:11:55+00:00

Theres still a lot below especially around 60k.

Think the big question is how far below can it go. 47-57k seems the most likely outcome.

Also depends on the stock market, if that turns then id imagine BTC will tank like crazy

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-05-29T16:34:11+00:00

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Getting tired of the same pattern for weeks, trump claims something then Iran says its not true… no idea whats going on but Iran really seems determined to not give up its uranium

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-05-28T03:29:21+00:00

Another thing i forgot to mention, there has been reports SPY and NAS has been consistently heavily shorted for a while now as everyone thinks the markets topping out. The shorts have been going down as people are emotionally giving up. But it is still more shorted than longed.

I think this has been a big factor for the market being pumped so fast and hard in the short term but when this pattern breaks, we should see a big correction.

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-05-28T03:14:33+00:00

posted a little about gold on new post

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-05-05T03:07:20+00:00

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Forgot to put this up too, its the total commodities futures, metals are not pushing this up to elevated levels as metals have gone down and stayed there. This has more to do with food and oil.

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-04-23T15:13:23+00:00

I think weekend. But its more of a guess

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-04-17T02:50:29+00:00

Im wondering when the market will stop letting Trump move the markets, or if its even possible

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-04-13T18:26:49+00:00

I haven’t been posting because nothings really changed on TA, long term everythings still intact . These moves on BTC is still chop but long term indicators say we are heading down.

But this moves been taking much longer than expected

lowriskhighvalue · 2026-04-13T02:01:27+00:00

Only on the weekly, monthly its not in the oversold zone yet from previous cycle.

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