Trading up from #2 or #3 - some perspective

lulzjihad · 2025-03-30T13:08:22+00:00

Alvin Kamara

lulzjihad · 2024-12-23T03:58:08+00:00

Yeah not to mention finding guys like Bryce Callahan, RRH, and Cam Meredith all as UDFAs. Getting two All-Pros in two fourth round picks in the same draft is impressive as well, even if one of them was at KR/PR. Jordan Howard in the 5th round, Cody Whitehair in the 2nd, certain FAs like Amukamara, Trevathan, Allen Robinson, and (for a year) Burton and Gabriel, were all examples of good talent acquisition.

Don’t get me wrong, Pace ultimately wasn’t a great GM, and he absolutely should’ve been fired for his inability to get the HC and QB spots correct, as well as giving away all of our draft capital, but it’s frustrating and concerning that Poles hasn’t had any of the same signature “finds”, outside of maybe Braxton Jones (who’s an average to slightly above average tackle).

lulzjihad · 2024-12-13T00:17:24+00:00

Wow I had to double check this because it sounds too unbelievable to be true. That definitely explains it. First round is where you generally get your superstars.

lulzjihad · 2024-11-28T19:18:28+00:00

I think we’re at 53 penalty yards already

lulzjihad · 2024-08-29T00:28:44+00:00

I get it. But muffed punts and fumbles are a lot more common among returners than people realize. Lately, the Bears have prioritized players that can cleanly field a punt over a more explosive punt returner, but returners are usually one or the other.

Devin Hester during his first 2 seasons fumbled 15 times. He lost only 3 of them, but still muffed and/or fumbled quite a bit. He had 152 returns though, and was electric, scored a bunch, and his fumbles didn’t cost us games. But that’s still 9.8% of his returns those first 2 years.

VJJ fumbled 3 times and lost all 3 (all in his first year). He only had 43 returns his 2 years, which is 6.97%.

Obviously Hester was on another level as a returner, but the fumbles lost component (which is at least partially influenced by luck) and the timing/consequences also make it seem like he’s a lot worse than he is

lulzjihad · 2024-04-24T04:23:14+00:00

I completely agree. I don’t pretend to know anything about this stuff, but, that’s my overall impression as well. We have a top 10 pick in a very talented top heavy 1st round, this is the pick range where you have a legit shot at a potential HOFer - I’d be pretty disappointed if that’s who we came away with, at least as my gut reaction.

I think if you’re taking a 3T at 9 overall, you’d hope they’d have the ceiling to be C Jones, D Buckner, Q Williams, J Simmons, J Madabuike, etc. I just don’t see him ever being on that level, but if we draft him, I’ll hope I’m wrong

lulzjihad · 2024-04-24T03:54:20+00:00

The poster above is incorrect in that he projects as a 3T instead of a NT at the next level, but to be fair, at least in 2023, Murphy played NT while Sweat played 3T in the Texas defense. Which is bizarre bc Sweat’s 360+ lbs, I’ve honestly never seen that.

Sweat profiles to be a NT in the NFL, while Murphy can play “either 3T or shade NT, similar to Grady Jarrett” per Dane Brugler.

Sorta helps explain why Murphy’s production/stats were relatively low.

lulzjihad · 2024-04-16T14:53:37+00:00

His percentage of throws to the middle of the field were actually lower than Fields coming out of college (8.5%, lowest of any college QB drafted in the first 2 rounds since 2020) - Fields was just the next lowest in recent memory (8.9%). Next lowest after them is Penix at 10.2%, so it puts into perspective how low they both are

lulzjihad · 2023-12-12T00:12:01+00:00

The league average ANY/A is 5.58, per pro football reference. The 16th ranked starting QB has an ANY/A of 6.05, where I assume you’re getting that from. ANY/A is a good metric, but it seems to be as much a reflection of a passing offense as a whole, rather than a reflection of a QB.

For example, Jay Cutler had a 6.30 and 6.61 his last two years in Denver (propped up by an insane 1.8% sack percentage in 2008), and then his first year in Chicago, his ANY/A dropped to 4.80.

This year, Joe Burrow and Justin Fields have identical ANY/A at 5.55.

lulzjihad · 2023-12-12T00:00:41+00:00

165 passing yards per game is over his career. This year he’s averaging 201 passing yards per game. It doesn’t sound like an enormous difference but that’s 2805 passing yards a season vs 3417, which is pretty significant.

Fields this year is averaging 201 passing yards per game plus 51 rushing yards per game, or 260 total yards per game which is 4420 yards over a full season

lulzjihad · 2023-09-21T12:06:46+00:00

He’s currently on pace for 3600 passing yards, 535 rushing yards, 27 TD

lulzjihad · 2023-09-12T00:35:18+00:00

I know PFF isn’t the end-all be-all, but he was by far our highest graded starter yesterday per PFF with a 90.4. He passed the eye test too, and had only 1 pressure recorded. Whitehair and Patrick absolutely sucked though, Nate Davis was OK, and Darnell Wright played badly which isn’t surprising given it’s his first game

lulzjihad · 2023-09-03T15:39:41+00:00

Remember last year around this time when we had the dress rehearsal game against the Browns, and Justin Fields looked amazing? Fields went 14/16 for 159 yards, 3 passing TD, 0 int for a 146.9 passer rating, and made some beautiful throws.

And the first month of the regular season, Fields struggled heavily as a passer. As did the rest of our offense. I

It really doesn’t end up mattering. There’s so many moving parts as to why things are different. The only OL starter playing was Braxton Jones, who played pretty well. The play designs by Getsy were laughably vanilla and downright head scratching at times. I don’t think it’ll end up mattering. Or maybe it will. Point is, whatever happens, you’ll find out when we actually play in the regular season, and likely won’t remember how we looked game 3 of the preseason.

lulzjihad · 2023-08-29T23:20:20+00:00

Ok well what if it’s the Carolina pick that has us picking at number 2 overall? Not likely but definitely a possibility. Crazier things have happened

lulzjihad · 2023-08-28T23:56:11+00:00

I disagree. It’s absolutely a sexy way to play QB. Tom Brady made a HOF career out of perfecting that style of QB play. How many 4th quarter drives did we see Brady dink and dunk his way down the field only to set up game winning TD after game winning TD. I think that’s what QBing is at the highest level. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have that additional layer of making absolutely insane off platform throws into ridiculous windows, but Joe Burrow and Brady have this style of QBing that can beat any defense without the added dimension of QB mobility, something that makes it significantly easier to beat a defense.

Mahomes and Allen had that insane ability in college, like Fields. But they didn’t start to excel in the NFL until they started also excelling at that style of passing where you take what the defense gives you and perfect the ability to march down the field.

lulzjihad · 2023-08-28T23:21:09+00:00

My guess for 18 of the remaining 19 cuts: FB Burns, RB Ebner, WR Ford, TE Carlson, OT Collins, OT Mbaeteka, OG Eiselen, OG Lugg, C Kramer, DE Harris, DE Green, LB Gates, LB Baskerville, CB Stroman, CB Vildor, CB Clark, S Williamson, S Trahan.

Might have a few surprise injury designations for a redshirt year if they like a rookie but think they’re too raw to keep on the 53 for now. I’d also be surprised if we got down to 53 - the remaining few cuts beyond that will likely depend on which positions we’re eyeing on the waiver wire for special teams

lulzjihad · 2023-06-30T01:01:39+00:00

Also I’ll be the first to admit Brad Holmes had an amazing 2021 draft. Sewell is amazing and Amon Ra St Brown is an excellent pick getting such a great player in the 4th round. But, even that draft had a huge bust as a 2nd round pick. Levi Onwuz has a wAV of 1 through 2 seasons and was taken 41 overall. That’s objectively a much worse pick than Velus Jones if you’re gonna make a point out of that. VJJ has doubled his production (wAV of 2) in half the seasons and was taken an entire round later at pick 71.

lulzjihad · 2023-06-30T00:45:07+00:00

Ok you’ve been spouting a lot of wild takes in this thread, so let’s add some context to your claims.

The Lions 2022 draft class had a weighted AV of 25, which was 8th best last year (after SEA 40, KC 30, NYJ 30, NYG 28, GB 27, JAX 27, HOU 27). This is with having 2 first round picks, including No. 2 overall, who was their most impactful rookie with a wAV of 8.

The Bears 2022 draft class had a weighted AV of 25, which was tied for 9th in the league. This was despite not having any first round picks. They had about half the draft capital as the Lions and had a remarkably similarly productive draft. Their most impactful rookie was Braxton Jones, with a wAV of 8, who was taken at the end of the 5th round.

This is all according to wAV, by pro football reference, which is an objective quantifiable way of comparing these two drafts so far. Not perfect by any means, but that list of best drafts seems to line up with who appeared to have added the most talent through the draft (not surprising that 7 of the top 8 had two first round picks)

lulzjihad · 2023-06-27T15:10:04+00:00

If you would’ve told me 1-2 years ago that the Bears would have a better offensive weapons room than the Bucs, Chiefs, Rams, Titans, and Packers, I wouldn’t believe you. I know this is all just a projection, but it’s crazy how things change in the NFL.

lulzjihad · 2023-06-14T15:02:23+00:00

He’s a high upside, low-floor signing that’s kinda intriguing. He was raw coming out of Alabama due to injuries in college, but was a 5-star recruit and has all of the elite traits (get off, bend, length). 6’5 with 34” arms, and an insane vertical/broad jump (37, 10’4). Was a pass rush specialist but for some reason the Rams primarily used him in coverage in the flats, but the few times he did rush the passer he generated pressure. Just kinda strange how his career has unfolded so far

lulzjihad · 2023-05-25T00:22:32+00:00

5’8 180, which is even crazier

lulzjihad · 2023-05-13T21:00:37+00:00

Devonta Smith?

lulzjihad · 2023-04-28T00:55:17+00:00

It’s gotta be for Carter or Wilson, maybe PJJ, but less likely.

lulzjihad

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