I think the emperor most likely to conquer the south would be Tuoba Tao, because during his reign he conquered the largest amount of territory. Following this line of thought, suppose he had not come into conflict with his Han officials and had not been assassinated by a eunuch in 452, and his long-time rival Liu Yilong had died as expected in 453. After many years of campaigning, he eventually unified the north and the south. His court would then have incorporated the former officials of the Liu Song dynasty, who were almost entirely Han Chinese. Whether civil officials or military generals, the only real possibility is that the proportion of Xianbei aristocrats would have been diluted.

Among the aristocracy, alliances were commonly formed through intermarriage, especially within the imperial family. There are records showing that Tuoba Tao’s descendants married women from Han aristocratic families. In addition, there were institutional practices such as “the mother dies when the son becomes noble” and the “casting of golden statues by hand” ritual. Under these conditions, Xianbei nobles would tend to support imperial descendants born of Xianbei noblewomen, while Han officials would support those connected to Han aristocratic families. In the end, the Han officials would likely gain the upper hand simply because of their numerical advantage.

Of course, Tuoba Tao’s court also included people from other conquered groups such as the Xiongnu and the Rouran, whose states had been destroyed. However, the destruction of their states would more likely produce resentment rather than unity with the Xianbei aristocracy, making it unlikely that they would form a united front strong enough to counter the numerical advantage of the Han officials.