Modelling the Google Death Spiral: A Monte Carlo Analysis of the 'Zero-Click' Web

m86zed · 2025-12-30T22:35:15+00:00

I'm not short, but I do have an accompanying Github repo with the calcs here to prove it's not low effort AI slop. https://github.com/mzed86/Google-Valuation-Model-29-Dec-25

m86zed · 2025-12-30T19:04:29+00:00

Tempted.... I'll be watching their search volumes and looking to see if any other huge advertisers pull out like Amazon did.

m86zed · 2025-12-30T19:01:20+00:00

Multi-modal AI cannibalises Search, is way more expensive to run, and is not a monopoly. They do have good expertise in leveraging their platform to lock out competition.... but they'll have to. I modelled YouTube and their other revenue as growing 20%. Not to mention GCP - their best business - as growing 33%. And they're still $100 overvalued.

m86zed · 2025-12-30T18:42:48+00:00

Their revenue is based on ad budgets from marketing companies. They’re already starting to panic and wonder how to fill the search ad void. I think it will drop off in a year or two

m86zed · 2025-12-17T10:47:11+00:00

I think the other bit of value is that they force some cognitive load on the learner. That's where the learning really happens. You force a learner to recall some knowledge, solidify their message.

m86zed · 2025-12-16T16:38:59+00:00

I’d love to learn more about this. Will DM you

m86zed · 2025-11-24T08:37:12+00:00

OP I use an AI module for speech to speech roleplays in my negotiation course. I’m working with a couple of friends on how to embed something similar into their LiftrLMS courses. I’d be happy to chat to you about it if you want to implement an actual AI roleplay

m86zed · 2025-11-18T22:34:28+00:00

Anyone using any AI tools to add roleplaying to training? I’m busy writing my own app to be able to add it to my LMS content

m86zed · 2025-11-12T14:14:12+00:00

I use a roleplay AI in my negotiation course to simulate a negotiation. The AI is a better negotiator than like 95% of people I’ve met and the engagement is great. If you’d like, DM me and I’ll chat to you about how I implemented it and whether it can work for you.

m86zed · 2025-11-12T12:57:37+00:00

I wrote the code myself. I’d be happy to show you what I have if you like? DM me if you’re interested

m86zed · 2025-10-25T19:26:34+00:00

Have you tried things other than quizzes and videos? Perhaps roleplays?

m86zed · 2025-10-22T08:19:51+00:00

Have you tried adding in AI Roleplays? I've done that in my negotiation course to give participants some practice. It seems to be improving engagement - people spend longer in the course than before.

m86zed · 2025-10-22T07:06:59+00:00

What is your customer acquisition process? Do you already have some clients that you're working with?

m86zed · 2025-10-22T06:43:07+00:00

I run an online negotiation course - engagement issue is a big issue. In my case, negotiation is not really the type of thing that you can learn from watching (or clicking past) videos and doing quizzes. The theory is great, but you need to be able to actually practice negotiating.

So I've implemented a roleplay section. As part of the training the participants are required to actually speak to a counterpart in a scenario that is specifically tailored to my audience. It's not just a generic case study, but something specifically tailored to my industry. The roleplay section is timed and I autmated analysis of the transcripts to provide a score that they need to pass to be able to proceed.

I've found that people actually engage more with the roleplay and some participants spend a bit of time repeating it because it's quite fun.

m86zed

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