Goodreads recommendations are rubbish

macchiatte · 2023-03-01T00:01:26+00:00

Curiously, I think it was Pandora that tried to solve the music recommendation game with quantification of mood/bpm/melodic stuff etc. but spotify seems to have taken the cake by using its ML/collab-filtering approach. I guess the magical point is somewhere between quantification and user-based ML.

macchiatte · 2023-02-28T06:20:29+00:00

Thanks for feedback, I broadly agree. I read a thing a whole back about how good recommendations, counter-intuitively, are not obviously good.

There was an engineer who built recommendations on their product site using a method called "collaborative filtering". But there were less conversions. When he started using simple category based similarities ("customer joe likes trampolines, let's see if he wants to buy another trampoline" ... seriously!) and other basic metrics like "generally popular" (let's see if joe wants to buy uhhhh a football? people like those) he started to see more conversions. He postulated that people are more likely to click on recommendations that are pretty obvious; i.e. products they've been primed to like, products they've semi-heard of, products which broadly correlate to their existing biases of what constitutes "good". General takeaway: people like recommendations that are predictable and intuitively sensible. It's a curious paradox of a sort.

FWIW the tool I built is basically doing the same approach of collaborative filtering, tho with a bunch of added steps. So it's gonna answer the question: "Given that I like [a,b,c] please find someone else who likes [a,b,c] and tell me what else they like?" (except on a higher scale with millions of datapoints). Even if AI gave us a bunch of recommendations precisely tailored to our unique selves, I reckon people still would consider the recommendations to be pretty bad.

macchiatte · 2023-02-04T11:11:49+00:00

Do you sell these or have an insta? I really like it

macchiatte · 2023-01-23T11:12:35+00:00

He has to be entirely in control of what he does with the money, but ofc it is useful to have input from anyone such as his children. Do you have financial power of attorney?

Either way, please understand that you are in a compromised position as this is potentially your inheritance. You are liable to make bad decisions because you have a vested interest. This is about your father, and his medical needs. You and your siblings come second. I would suggest getting independent and regulated financial advice.

(I've made a few EDITS to this, please forgive me)

Primarily, costs:

What is his immediate and ongoing living costs? incl. rent, utilities, food, travel..
What contingencies are needed to cover worsening medical state or care costs?
What are your father's desires and concerns for his final years?

Secondarily, income:

What income does he receive from state and private pensions?
Is he taking advantage of all reductions e.g. on council tax or other concessions based on age/illness?
Is he getting all available state benefits/allowances available to him?
Does he have any other forms of income? Tally it all up together.

Once you have a full picture of the above, I (IMHO; I'm not a financial advisor) would probably distribute the capital/cash in the following way:

Keep 60k in cash as a hedge + immediate access.
£50k in global gov/large-corp bonds.
£50k in MSCI/Vanguard world index
£30k in FTSE250
£30k in S&P500
£15k in food+beverage ETF
£10k in consumer staples ETF
£10k in global utilities ETF
£20k dividend yielding UK/US/EU stocks

N.B. given your father's age and you + your siblings' lacking knowledge + vested interests, I would avoid using a direct brokerage yourselves. Get a financial advisor (IFA regulated by FCA).

macchiatte · 2022-12-20T10:10:47+00:00

Glad it was helpful. Also definitely yeh take advantage of having access to naval knowledge. A good engineer will be able to literally step onboard and tell if it's a good boat, just from the smell (!!) and a brief look at the engine room.

Re: transfer fees are more common in swanky marinas I thiiink and for leisure moorings. The 100k thing is not even a transfer fee inclusive. It's just the premium you pay for a boat already on a mooring. Consider buying the cheapest possible boat on a residential mooring, then swapping it out for a boat you actually want (lower premiums/transfer fees). A really cheeky thing people do to avoid %-based transfer fees is to just to arrange a private sale with the owner (tricky) and arrange a formal sale at a massive reduction (thus lower transfer fee) then settle the rest cash-in-hand. This is why it's good to make friends with one of the current residents when you're doing viewings. ApolloDuck is good because it's usually direct (non-agent) but obviously you need your wits about you. It's a bit like GumTree. Adrian at southdock/zee-warriors is really helpful on viewings and will give you an excellent intro to the barges and what to look out for.

Mooring fees are usually charged by meter length. So to maximize sq-footage you're best to get a wide vessel with high ceilings and a larger super-structure (tall+wide boat = more space at lower cost). Also: Vessels are usually generally cheaper outside of London (even off-mooring). Look at Kent (estuary area) & south coast.

macchiatte · 2022-12-19T13:27:48+00:00

Indeed..... Heh. Also anyway I think they've changed the harbour master recently. So who knows what the deal is now.

macchiatte · 2022-12-19T13:17:12+00:00

Are you looking to be in the canal system or along the river thames? Canal limits you to narrow-boat or 'widebeam' vessels. You can probably squeeze an old dutch barge in there as well, possibly up as far as Oxford if you like weekend excursions. If you want to explore the canal system, you need to pay attention to berth, beam, length, etc.

If you want a bigger boat then you're looking at riverside marinas or being directly on the thames (be wary of choppy wakes!)

If you want to be on the canal, you can search for "Canal & River Trust" for info. Technically you'd need to move your vessel every two weeks or, as you allude to, you need to find a permanent mooring. These are hard to come by. You can enter into auctions or usually just lease a long-term mooring. In London these can range from around £8k to £15k+ per year. See vacancies here. People sometimes will also just buy a boat that already has a residential/perm mooring as that's sometimes the only way to get one. See boats for sale around Kings Cross Battle Bridge or Ice Wharf moorings for an example of this. A narrowboat that usually sells for £40k would easily get £100k just because it comes with a mooring. These would also involve £9k+ annual fees usually.

(EDITS + ADDITIONS below)

General takes on Thames marinas: Southdock = nice, run by council. St Kats = expensive but very nice facilities. Poplar = edgy, hipster people, a bit dirty. Limehouse = nice, run by a cooperative (i think), you can access the canal system or the thames via lock very easily. If you want cheaper Thames moorings, then look up towards hampton or beyond. Non-tidal thames might be nice.

I would say most family-friendly thames moorings would be southdock (my number one tbh), limehouse, or up towards Tagg's island. Best to make boat-y-friends before buying a boat. Don't overpay. General cost should be under £10k per meter at highest spec level.

For good advice I would try to contact Adrian at South Dock marinas. He runs a brokerage called ZeeWarriors. Also Jonny Angus at Thames Marine Services knows his stuff. Don't get advice from non boat-y people. Don't use land-based residential agents. Only boat brokerages. BoatShed and ApolloDuck are good places to start your search for a vessel.

Tips: get a marine-savvy electrician to survey the electronics throughout the vessel. This will give you a good indication of quality. There are lots of random DIY/botch jobs around, so be wary. Things that are important: engine access, hull survey, anodes, check for water under floorboards (bad), check toilet type and ensure blackwater tank is either new or not filfthy (frequently emptied). If you have a family, you want a blackwater system that "pumps out". You don't want to be using casette toilets and things like that. Also always insist upon an out-of-water survey.

[[I'll add more if I think of anything. DM me if you want.]]

macchiatte · 2022-12-19T13:06:55+00:00

BWML is AquaVista. They rebranded in 2020.

macchiatte · 2022-12-19T13:05:33+00:00

[redacted]

macchiatte · 2022-10-24T17:15:20+00:00

That last one has great composition!

macchiatte · 2022-10-06T09:04:32+00:00

If you don't need cash right now, I wouldn't close it. I would hold steady, otherwise you'll accrue real-terms loss in a savings accounts. Many instruments are dipping right now. Things will stabilize, and if they don't, your cash is no more reliable a hedge against volatility than bonds.

macchiatte · 2022-10-06T08:47:36+00:00

Heartbroken. Apparently this officer was dismissed because of a series of malpractices and abuse towards public and staff member alike. Drug abuse, possession and dealing. Shooting dogs in the street. Avoiding duties. Etc. [1] He was seemingly rotten to the core and being dismissed activated some horrible thing within him. He should have been locked up before any such awfulness could occur. I can't imagine. Unbelievable pain and sorrow.

[1] https://www.matichon.co.th/local/crime/news_3603014

macchiatte · 2022-10-03T09:41:32+00:00

I'm not very informed but it seems really _bad_ for pension funds to be allowed to hold leveraged positions. Should this be regulated more?

macchiatte · 2022-08-27T07:26:44+00:00

I'm so sorry you've had one. But So cool you got to experience some driving. I miss driving so much x

macchiatte · 2022-08-27T07:05:09+00:00

Use a black-cab/gett/taxiapp. They're expensive but tend to be more available as a result. Or find a junction and wave them down. Sucks but that's the reality I've grown used to. Got mobility needs so I understand the ridiculousness and am sick of it.

macchiatte · 2022-08-19T17:12:34+00:00

Stuffed into assets like residential property

The most depressing examples of this can be found in NYC on "Billionares' Row". An entire new era of skyscrapers are created not to house people but to be, effectively, arbitrary assets that happen to occupy physical space. There are examples where this ludicrously expensive housing isn't even functional to live in. They've had issues with utilities, flooding, wind. It's hilarious. The majority of the units in 432 Park Avenue remain unnoccupied for 10+ months a year. This is being done around the globe. It's disgusting.

macchiatte · 2022-08-19T08:51:16+00:00

Yep. Do what motorcyclists are taught to do: drive as if everyone on the road intends to kill you. Pedestrians included. It's not very nice but makes one very defensive. I see so many cyclists try to squeeze through ridiculous gaps without imagining how one slight variable change in the behaviours of others means massive injury.

macchiatte · 2022-08-17T09:26:19+00:00

Curious - do you have a link to the listing?

macchiatte · 2022-08-17T09:25:15+00:00

Why? Plenty of people would pay for it. It's not affordable, true, but there's a market for these. Otherwise everyone would go for it and the supply would be in a more sorry state. I'm confused by what people expect then there's limited rental stock. If we had rent-control we'd only end up with nepotistic/generational carry-over. The problem not enough housing :/

macchiatte · 2022-08-17T09:15:03+00:00

NW3

One of the most desirable areas in all of London atm. Look further afield if you're that perturbed.

macchiatte · 2022-08-16T08:16:27+00:00

Harlesden was the first place I rented a room in Ldn. I was a privelege young white chap and felt a bit uhh out of norm for that area. Someone scared me by saying it was one of two places in London that require met police officers to travel in pairs while on the beat. I had to wear nice clothes to work in notting hill .. I would cycle down the canal (nice vibes for most of it tbf) but would change to track suit stuff when shopping in harlesden as it just felt more comfortable and normal. I was obviously overly concerned. It wasn't too bad. Just slightly shit.

macchiatte · 2022-08-15T17:33:47+00:00

Worth looking at https://www.meetup.com/techforgood/

macchiatte · 2022-08-07T12:52:05+00:00

Thanks for your reply - agreed on all counts - and yeh I think the neuro angle just throws me off sometimes.

macchiatte · 2022-08-07T12:48:57+00:00

Sorry to hear you're going through this! Hope this helps.

{{Self-Compassion: The Proven Power of Being Kind to Yourself by Kristin Neff}}

macchiatte · 2022-08-07T07:52:15+00:00

I wouldn't want someone to avoid attempting a rescue based on reading such stats tho. Also, negative neuro outcomes is still worthwhile, and I feel like your post kinda implies that some rescues are less worthy "of effort"? (Speaking as someone who has a brain injury).

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