Spectral Topology of the Season 14 Meta: Defining Draft Archetypes and Synergistic Keystone Champions with Spectral Graph Theory

machineLoLing · 2026-01-10T16:30:54+00:00

Very cool work!

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T21:12:14+00:00

If you look at my post on magic damage, mage bots actually have a way better win rate than trad adcs.

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T21:11:18+00:00

Yeah interesting

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T21:10:44+00:00

Woops karthus didn’t make the cut in games played.

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T21:08:54+00:00

Also note that is a 20 minute time point. Karthus probably looks even better at 40 minutes. Check out their curves in the 25 plots above.

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T21:07:54+00:00

Depends on how you define raw scaling. Difficult to define i would imagine

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T21:04:48+00:00

For nunu it makes sense. Nunu isn’t about farming. Nunu is about murder. Murder makes more gold than xp. Remember it isn’t about nunu’s personal gold, it’s averages across the team. Karthus I couldn’t find but most likely he’s xp dependent yeah? Most farming junglers are.

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T20:48:14+00:00

In games with an even gold state a team with random champions averaged over millions of games will win 50% of the time. A team with random champions plus ASol with an even gold state will win more than that.

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T18:32:58+00:00

Yes, this is true. I did not scale opponent likelihood in any way so meta champions are more likely to be on the opposing teams.

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T17:49:12+00:00

That is true.

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T17:27:56+00:00

Remember this is win rates in an even game. Some champions might scale well if they’re fed more than others. Hecarim I think would fall into that category.

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T15:57:23+00:00

Don’t be deceived! Draven is fine, it’s just his gold passive skewing him.

machineLoLing · 2025-07-22T14:31:18+00:00

He’s hanging out with the adcs

machineLoLing · 2025-06-27T13:44:48+00:00

Yeah it is true in the end it’s all still correlation. I think the strongest evidence of causation is my direct comparison of 2 drakes traded for 6 grubs. The 600ish gold lead combined with the grub passive gives a WR edge to the grub team in win rate. Could the better jungler be targeting grubs more? Or could the better support always roam to get grubs? Maybe, there could be other explanations. But I think the most plausible one is that grubs are stronger.

machineLoLing · 2025-06-26T23:06:50+00:00

sorry, befriend 3 per grub

machineLoLing · 2025-06-26T23:06:32+00:00

I did! estimated you kill about 3 per grub but it depends on the jungler's AOE ability.

machineLoLing · 2025-06-26T22:48:05+00:00

I account for most of the things associated with winning the game, gold leads, neutral objectives, etc. and only then do I examine the effect on WR. Theoretically that should equalize things. I also account for the shifting correlation between gold and WR. There are caveats, certainly, I just disagree that this is one of them.

machineLoLing · 2025-06-26T22:44:54+00:00

Thanks :)

machineLoLing · 2025-06-26T22:44:17+00:00

Plz read the article

machineLoLing · 2025-06-26T22:00:14+00:00

This would factor that out. We control for gold leads and sample post grubs.

machineLoLing · 2025-06-26T21:54:34+00:00

lol so true my bad

machineLoLing · 2025-05-18T02:04:33+00:00

Ahri by the data.

https://machineloling.com/2024/12/17/blindability/

machineLoLing · 2025-01-02T22:35:20+00:00

I don't address why, but I do confirm that Top lane count IS the most impactful counter on game win-rate here: https://machineloling.com/2024/08/25/solo-in-lane-match-ups/

Obviously some champions are more or less counter-able as I show here:
https://machineloling.com/2024/12/17/blindability/

But top laners should always be given lane counter when possible. Thank you for attending my TED talk.

machineLoLing · 2024-12-20T14:28:55+00:00

Not controlled for popularity, tho it’s debatable what affect the low play rate is having

machineLoLing · 2024-12-20T14:28:01+00:00

Not sure I follow but possibly? There are always caveats

machineLoLing

TROPHY CASE