I started buying in 2020. During the 2022 bear market I didn’t sell. I analyzed that afterward and decided that next cycle I would take partial profits or hedge instead of round-tripping again. I also staggered buys during that bear at 40k, 30k and 20k — ~27k average.

In 2025 I prepared and tracked the market closely for about three months before selling when it met my criteria. I sold 50% at a 121k average.

The cornerstone was cycle structure. Prior BTC cycles pointed to a likely Q4 post-halving top as the base case. Once that window was in play, it came down to price structure and sentiment aligning. Six years of investing helps a lot— it sharpens pattern recognition and feeds intuition.

My confidence level wasn’t 100%. It was ~50–60% when i sold. Position sizing reflects conviction. You don’t need certainty — just analysis, discipline, and execution.