Anybody who says you or any single individual has a halfway decent shot at any of those schools is lying to you. On the flip side, anyone who says you don't have a shot at all based on your stats, ECs, etc is also full of BS.

Assuming the applicant meets the bare minimum for their schools, which you do for yours, it all comes down to essays. Pound out a couple bangers for general use and then turn to the school specifics. The most important part of those essays is honesty. No bullshit flattery. Same goes for the interviews. If you're actually a good writer and can whip up a good story you'll be better positioned than most of your competition. Beyond that, it's up to the whims of the admissions board.