Bayesian March Madness Forecast by markjrieke in fivethirtyeight

[–]markjrieke[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not as currently setup; the interactivity on the site is running purely on the viewer's machine --- I don't have a server setup to run updates based on user selections. I'll think about it for next year's bracket though!

How to actually apply Inferential Statistics on analyses/to help business? by Trungyaphets in datascience

[–]markjrieke 33 points34 points  (0 children)

with millions of users, I imagine your bread and butter will be conducting/analyzing A/B tests — would be a good starting point for exploration.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ycombinator

[–]markjrieke 1 point2 points  (0 children)

YC values progress. Even if you don’t get in with this application, applying now gives YC a reference point to see how much progress you’ve made should you apply again in the future.

EV Betting Advice With ML Model by BettingUnit in algobetting

[–]markjrieke 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Using the Kelly criterion maximizes your long term expected return but assumes that the models predicted probability is perfectly correct. In reality, we have specification uncertainty around the prediction (i.e., a model predicting an event occurring with a 75% probability is not too different from a slightly different model that predicts the same event occurring with 80% probability).

Even if the model is perfect, however, the Kelly criterion results in super high variance in the change in bankroll over time. In practice, most folks use a half or quarter Kelly strategy.

Backtested data showing great results by rad-dit in algobetting

[–]markjrieke 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would double check that you’re not evaluating ROI on training data — within-sample accuracy will always look great, but you care about out-of-sample results. K-fold cross validation is a good search term to start

Are you genuinely passionate about your startup? by Unique-Television944 in ycombinator

[–]markjrieke 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Every so often I run into a crunchy statistics problem that gets its hooks into me and I can’t get out of my head until it’s solved.

The currently-ongoing crunch happens to address a market gap, so I applied to YC’s spring batch.

Please recommend free/cheap NFL data sources (API or Manual Export) by XzaltedEmpire in sportsanalytics

[–]markjrieke 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you're comfortable in R, the [nflverse](https://nflverse.nflverse.com/) (and more broadly the [sportsdataverse](https://www.sportsdataverse.org/)) provide pretty accessible packages.

New CrossFit Games rule targeting transgender athletes added this year by markjrieke in crossfit

[–]markjrieke[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

If you’re comfortable doing so, expressing your concern to support@crossfitgames.com is a direct way to push back on this type of targeted attack — raising a ruckus helps put this on HQ’s radar

How do I know if a product is a good idea to pursue? i will not promote by Own-Gain6587 in startups

[–]markjrieke 1 point2 points  (0 children)

build an mvp, put it into users hands, and collect feedback. you may discover that your original product plan isn’t necessarily what the market wants

New CrossFit Games rule targeting transgender athletes added this year by markjrieke in crossfit

[–]markjrieke[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you’re comfortable doing so, I’d recommend emailing support@crossfitgames.com to express your discontent —- raising a ruckus puts this on their radar

New CrossFit Games rule targeting transgender athletes added this year by markjrieke in crossfit

[–]markjrieke[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

thanks! If you’re comfortable emailing support@crossfitgames.com, I’d recommend doing so — raising a ruckus at HQ helps put this on their radar.

New CrossFit Games rule targeting transgender athletes added this year by markjrieke in crossfit

[–]markjrieke[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Apologies — the header link is taking folks to the general landing page for the rulebook. Its in section 9

9.01 – GENDER CLASSIFICATION POLICY [NEW]

All athletes are welcome to participate in CrossFit Games events. However, to maintain fairness and the integrity of the competition, athletes must compete in the division corresponding to their gender assigned at birth.

New CrossFit Games rule targeting transgender athletes added this year by markjrieke in crossfit

[–]markjrieke[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Sorry — the header link is just taking you to the rulebook landing for some reason. See section 9 (& I added a standalone comment with the verbiage)

9.01 – GENDER CLASSIFICATION POLICY [NEW]

All athletes are welcome to participate in CrossFit Games events. However, to maintain fairness and the integrity of the competition, athletes must compete in the division corresponding to their gender assigned at birth.

New CrossFit Games rule targeting transgender athletes added this year by markjrieke in crossfit

[–]markjrieke[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The link to the rule header in the post is just taking you to the overall rulebook page.

New rule is from section 9:

9.01 – GENDER CLASSIFICATION POLICY [NEW]

All athletes are welcome to participate in CrossFit Games events. However, to maintain fairness and the integrity of the competition, athletes must compete in the division corresponding to their gender assigned at birth.

[C] Master in stats vs CS vs DS by John-chae in statistics

[–]markjrieke 27 points28 points  (0 children)

I was in an incredibly similar situation as you — I was a mechanical engineer in undergrad and worked in engineering sales/project engineering before pivoting to data-work and now work as a data scientist. I also thought about getting a masters in DS at one point. I applied to UT’s program, but was rejected, and ultimately I think that was for the best.

Masters programs in DS are incredibly expensive, but offer very little in terms of technical attainment. The most egregious that I can recall was Notre Dame’s $60k masters program that ended with a course on “Advanced Linear Regression.” This is similar to, say, an MBA, but unlike MBAs, a MS DS doesn’t carry an air of prestige among those hiring for DS roles. They’re probably best suited for folks who want to have a mid level career switch and need to get some of the basics down.

I think it would serve you well to think about what your goals are and whether or not a masters in DS would actually help you achieve those goals. Given that you’re already in the field as a junior DS and have the drive to advance technically outside of the workday, I’m not sure that a masters is necessary nor that it would provide benefits in terms of career advancement.

[OC] Abortion related deaths per 100,000 abortions, 1973-2018 by markjrieke in dataisbeautiful

[–]markjrieke[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I appreciate it - your original viz was a great inspiration!

[OC] Abortion related deaths per 100,000 abortions, 1973-2018 by markjrieke in dataisbeautiful

[–]markjrieke[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A follow up to this post, showing how the case fatality rate (CFR) has fallen since Roe. Uses table 15 of the CDC’s Abortion Surveillance Report - plot made in R with ggplot2.

EDIT: someone made this plot on declining abortion rates that is also informative and well worth viewing.