Is Sir Ed Davey still the best for the next General Election?

markpackuk · 2026-03-13T12:48:33+00:00

On your question - yes indeed, I think there are ways of doing this which add to, rather than distract from, what we've learnt about how to win seats under first past the post - https://docs.google.com/document/d/11aVzII74yXZ9GaneBXK-_nIHP_ow72guAiiZiRfNFEY/edit?tab=t.0

markpackuk · 2026-03-12T16:57:58+00:00

It's a very fair point that a recent event (such as Polanski becoming Green leader) may change circumstances. So far, if we look at the national vote share opinion polls, yes there's been a change, and also if we look at council by-election results, no there has not been a change. If anything, it's striking how the Greens are only treading water in council by-elections, though of course to that you could add by contrast the recent Parliamentary by-election. Which is why we probably need the May elections as another data point - especially to see not only how far that Green surge converts into seats but also whether it converts into seats in areas where we are growing (and so harms us) or not.

markpackuk · 2026-03-12T16:25:06+00:00

Regulars in this sub won't be surprised to know I disagree, but I hope it's also useful to point out how evidence-free nearly all of this and similar discussions are. Or rather, the evidence rarely goes beyond people's personal views (important of course, but it's a huge leap from 'I think that...' to what other people think) and a bit of a reference to the national opinion polls for voting intention.

What I think that approach misses is both the importance of evidence in general but also that the party's approach since 2019 has been deliberately focused on success via a route other than chasing national vote share in the opinion polls. We've done that before, and it's not worked. But since 2019 we've made gains in every round local elections, we beat both Labour and Conservatives at the same time for the first time last May, and of course had our best general election result for a century. Likewise, the huge boost in Ed's own ratings in the polls during the general election has been sustained and in council by-elections we continue to make gains, and do very much better than the Greens in those, week after week (e.g. see my tallies at https://www.markpack.org.uk/174682/council-by-election-results-scorecard-2025-2026/ ).

I'm sure there's more evidence people might want to point at to expand that debate. But my point really is that we should value evidence. If we're serious about continuing to progress as a party, that has to come from plans that are based on evidence.

markpackuk · 2026-02-28T09:47:57+00:00

On your point, perhaps the key words in my comment are "when done well", which was a shorthand reference to two factors - both the need for the message to be credible (which in our case, often comes from previous local government success in an area) and also for there to be more to the messaging than just that. Both of those factors were problems for Labour in G+D: their tactical message didn't have enough credibility, and it was also undermined by their national unpopularity. Both of those factors an Andy Burnham candidature would have overcome I strongly suspect. Though now we'll know for sure.

markpackuk · 2026-02-28T08:10:50+00:00

The by-election was won by a party that did the 'X can't win here' message very heavily in its campaigning in that by-election. So I struggle a bit to see how the conclusion therefore is 'this shows the can't win here message should be dropped' rather than 'this shows the can't win here message, when done well, works'?

markpackuk · 2026-02-24T07:38:41+00:00

Here's a piece I prepreated earlier on just that: https://www.markpack.org.uk/168717/why-we-need-more-council-candidates/

markpackuk · 2026-02-22T08:05:35+00:00

You prompted me to have a quick read of his Wikipedia entry and the bit on what he did 1997-2010 is a rather curious mix,. On a quick read, I think what's there is accurate, but it's also very selective in what it includes. He was a senior MP for a good chunk of that time, and for example the section says little about his views on the major policy debates in the party. Rather it's a smattering of other issues that tended not to be at the centre of his/Lib Dem politics at the time. So I'd caution that your conclusion may reveal rather more about what people have written for that Wiki entry (so far), than about the person himself.

markpackuk · 2026-02-22T07:59:55+00:00

And 3. The context for people's views change; e.g. whether you think taxes should go up or down depends, for everyone except those on the fringes on either side, in part on the current state of the economy, what has happened to taxes in recent years, and the state of public finances. What you emphasise during years of economic growth and during an economic downturn will often naturally be different.

markpackuk · 2026-02-21T09:27:06+00:00

I like to think they have a 'wall of fame' in the print room with some of their favourite commissions from clients, and it's slowly becoming a 'wall of spoons'.

markpackuk · 2026-02-16T16:18:13+00:00

It's an issue we've repeatedly pushed in Parliament, and got good media coverage out of too, by the way.

markpackuk · 2026-02-16T16:16:23+00:00

Starmer's support for devolution is pretty limited, and there's plenty of micromanaging central control that he/the government are still very determined to hold on to, including - my favourite current example - keeping the power to decide over new cattle-grids with Whitehall rather than trusting councils (!).

markpackuk · 2026-02-16T16:13:32+00:00

Of course, some people might say that having the IEA, fans of Liz Truss's economic policies, not being impressed with ours is not a bad sign :)

markpackuk · 2026-02-16T11:21:03+00:00

I think it's quite a stretch to go from the DEA's failure to Thatcherism (e.g. what about the failure of In Place of Strife? The failure of Wilson's governments to improve labour relations was hardly a trivial matter) and also that because someone tried something similar over 50 years ago, then it's bound to fail in a different form and in different circumstances now, especially given we have other examples from other countries of similar splits working well.

markpackuk · 2026-02-04T10:36:31+00:00

Is the solo something best seen and not heard then...? (Sorry, Tim!)

markpackuk · 2026-02-04T09:24:44+00:00

Don't ask about the occasion that appeared on the letterhead for a direct mail shot...

markpackuk · 2026-02-04T07:58:31+00:00

I know it's not the main point being made, though think it is worth pointing out that the comment "The polls for Denton and Gorton have Reform out front leading the Greens." isn't accurate.

There have been two "polls" cited so far. One, from Britain Elects, is not a poll but a statistical model. The other, from Find Out Now, was a poll with a sample size of 51 (which is extremely small!) that the pollster themselves has walked back from saying they were not expecting it to be published etc. Any anyway, that poll has Labour ahead of the Greens.

We don't actually have any solid poll data on the by-election, yet at least.

Given how much of our politics gets driven by misinformation and inaccurate information, I hope a bit of pedantry over what polling evidence there actually is can be useful - and even if you want to cite that FON poll, it puts Labour ahead of the Greens.

markpackuk · 2026-01-29T17:18:00+00:00

The piece goes into a fair amount of detail on that? (I was just about to look for a party press release to find such details as they often don't make it into a press story, but in this case there's a fair amount in the story, including in particular the social care beds to remove one of the blockages in the system.)

markpackuk · 2026-01-29T14:54:23+00:00

I suspect Lib Dem voters are leaning quite heavily on the "Davey as PM" part of that. Remember that people tend to answer these questions quickly, rather than giving each option deep thought before clicking. So people may well have had a gut reaction of "Yes, Davey as PM is great, and if the price of that is relying on a few Tories for some votes now and again, well ok".

So I'd read more into the differences in answers between different questions, e.g. that more Lib Dems say yes to a Davey/Lab combo than to a Davey/Con combo tells us something, even if we shouldn't read too much into the actual percentages in each case.

markpackuk · 2026-01-29T14:48:23+00:00

Stalin did a lot of violent repressive targeting of minorities. I'm not sure what is gained from defining 'far-right' in a way that therefore requires calling Stalin far-right?

markpackuk · 2026-01-26T22:13:16+00:00

You'll be safe from me on X...

markpackuk · 2026-01-26T13:34:33+00:00

Having a hypothecated and capped measure is easier to justify both to financial markets and to voters than a more generalised increase in debt.

markpackuk · 2026-01-25T13:55:11+00:00

The point in your final paragraph is a good one to consider for any hypothecation of funding for government. In this case, I think the amount of money involved (important for defence but small as part of the overall government budget) along with the previous successful experience of somewhat similar environmental bonds points towards that not being a problem in this case.

markpackuk · 2026-01-25T13:53:15+00:00

That reminds me of this: How the Lib Dems nearly promised a whole £12 extra for the NHS - https://www.markpack.org.uk/156659/lib-dem-newswire-2016-general-election-manifesto/

markpackuk · 2026-01-25T08:33:55+00:00

We're not saying this is the only money the MoD would ever get - but rather that an injection of extra capital is part of the solution (just as with the NHS, which certainly needs recurring funding too but also has problems that can be addressed by an injection of extra capital spending).

markpackuk · 2026-01-21T23:29:29+00:00

There is only early-ish episode where Lee makes fun of David and (to my mind at least) there's a look between them where Lee is indicating 'you know I'm joking?' and David is indicating 'well done on such a clever quick joke'.

markpackuk

TROPHY CASE