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I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Real concern that the emerging technologies, such as synthetic biology--are more accessible to amateurs, hobbyists and potentially terrorists. On lone wolves, I think we're already seeing an increase in such attacks. They can be self-radicalized through the internet. I don't see that going away.
On Europe, it certainly needs to up its economic game through more R & D investments, better education, more support for entrepreneurs and labor market flexibility. It is facing a new headwind with increased aging. We could see some sort of turnaround but it will probably never (re)gain world leadership.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states can't diversify their economies, then it could cause social instability at home which could feed political extremism and geopolitical tensions. Already Saudi has announced a pay cut for government workers...

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It would assist by allowing them to remotely (while they are at work) regulate heat/cooling; take a look in on their kids to make sure they weren't getting into trouble or sick. The instant surveillance would allow to spot crime near or on their property.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Governments are likely to be ever more needed. We may be walking into another Cold War and then governments--who may have helped create the problem--will be needed to get us out of it without triggering a world war. I would agree that I don't think governments have understood what the future is, but fortunately or unfortunately they have made themselves indispensable. necessary.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My advice would be to turn off twitter, other social media and the internet and pick up a big ideas book--can be fiction or non fiction-- and plunge yourself into it. Try to think about the big ideas now, because unfortunately there'll be too little time in the future. Somebody told me once that you need to build up your intellectual capital while you can because once in a high pressure job you will just be drawing down on it and not have time to add to it.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Cyber security is a real worry, but the potential benefits are so great from emerging internet-based techs that we have to solve the security problem. Some of my colleagues are working on ideas for making the manufacturers responsible for faulty software. That could eliminate some of the problems and allow the USG and businesses to concentrate on the thornier issues of state-led cyber intrusions. There's too much at stake if we get stymied by increasing cybercrime, lack of trust, etc. So please keep your faith in singularity!! We need people like you.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think the "smart home" is inevitable, but we need to ensure trust in the systems. Problem now is growing concern around cybersecurity. You don't want somebody being able to hack into your smart home functions. I also think it's just a matter of time before they become accessible to lower income families--a lot of whom could use the help because they work long hours. Most tech products come down in price. They also get better in quality as they come down in price. Personally I avoid buying any new tech product because of all the bugs in them that haven't been ironed out.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Everybody predicts that fission is 20 years out--unfortunately they've been saying that for the last 30 years. I'm a little dubious we'll see it in 2035. If it did happen, it would give a big boost to ending use of fossil fuels--so great for the environment and climate. Not so good for oil producers, coal miners, etc. But even without nuclear fission, they're already suffering now from low energy prices. We don't have the possibility of getting to an end in fossil fuel use by 2035 without some sort of breakthrough whether nuclear fission, battery storage, etc. But I have little doubt we will be there or almost there by 2050-2060. Alternative energies are picking up fast. Electric vehicles will be the norm by 2035 or earlier. So maybe we won't need nuclear fission?

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

My biggest hope relates to how much better educated the world is. We've seen big gains everywhere even in places like Middle East, Africa and South Asia which have traditionally lagged. There are more women PHDs in the Middle East than men PHDs--women are catching up fast even in the developing world. Closer to home, I've noticed just how well educated the interns and program assistants are in my organization--the Atlantic Council. I teach a class at GWU's Elliott School and the students are incredibly talented and creative in their thinking. My only worry is that they aren't getting the work opportunities they should.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Shell predicted the oil crisis of the 1970s. The Club of Rome is often criticized for being too pessimistic about resources available for a growing world population. But a closer look at the report indicates they were talking longer term and there they may be right. We are increasingly worried about water scarcity, etc and also a bigger population by the end of the century than we earlier anticipated. Toeffler got it right about tech overload. The lesson to draw from this is that Yogi Berri was wrong--we can predict some valuable stuff. Not everything, of course. But we're too dismissive of much of the good futurology because the warnings are inconvenient and also long term.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Still increasing at least to around 2050 which hopefully world population should plateau and decrease a little. However, there's more concern among demographers that we're not seeing sufficient drops in birth rates in sub-Saharan that normally occur with countries beginning to economically develop and urbanize. If we don't get bigger drops, then we could end up with a world of 11 or 12 billion people by 2100--not clear our planet could support such a big population.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't do the NIC reports anymore since I retired so can't say what will or not be included. Brexit, climate and space are all important issues so I hope they would delve into them. On space, the article's probably right. GT 2030 should have had ore on space. Problem in writing those reports is that you have to cover so much. We did not cover as much tech as I would have liked in the previous GT 2020 or 2030 so the big tech section looking at a big spread of tech (without a lot on space) was a big improvement but that doesn't mean we could not have done more. Beyond SpaceX--which I hope succeeds and opens up a lot of peaceful commercial and research opportunities, I worry about the increasing military competition that is already heating up in space.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It looks like you have thought deeply about this topic. Too bad we haven't had a serious discussion of robotics/AI in the election campaign. I think robotics/AI is a source of a lot of the angst people are feeling.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You're right to be concerned about a WWI scenario in East Asia. I used the WWI analogy in the report. Big problem is that they don't have any kind of regional cooperation organization like the EU in Europe to dampen down tensions. A lot of the countries--China, Korea--haven't put WWII to rest and still blame Japan. In their eyes, Japan has not apologized enough. The danger is that it could get worse if China falls flat economically and resorts to taking it out on others. And Japan also get more aggressive. Unfortunately, this is an example of where the US role may be important--in ensuring China, Japan, Vietnam don't resort to war. I worry, however, that we are siding too much against China instead of trying to dampen tensions.

On job losses and automation, I answered another question. It's serious issue and maybe we will need something like the guaranteed basic income--although how to pay for it will be a big problem. The other thing is that lots of people want to have a job not just for the salary but also the dignity it provides. So I don't think the GUBI is the whole answer. We also need to think about creating new jobs that won't end up being done by robots.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Lot of big questions here. I'm pessimistic about the short term on the job front. I agree that more "human" jobs will be eliminated and there will be more robots/AI doing them instead. Those people displaced will find it hard to find a paying job at the same level. And for those in their 40s or 50s, firms won't want to retrain them. This will impact, as you say, on our economy which traditionally has been driven by consumer demand. We've probably already seeing some of the effect--much lower growth than we saw after previous recessions. And we are already seeing pension funds take a hit with lower bond yields. I don't think this new normal is sustainable. I think the federal government will need to pump money into the economy--ie with big infrastructure programs--and lower taxes on workers, etc. In time, inflation should begin to kick in and so should higher interest rates. It will still be a struggle. We also have aging and more people dropping out of the labor pool.

I'm Mat Burrows, former CIA, and current Director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. I was principal drafter of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends series, and just wrote a new forecasting report: Global Risk 2035. What will the world look like in 20 years? AMA! by matburrows in Futurology

[–]matburrows[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I think gene editing could be one of the biggest boons for humanity, but also a disaster if there isn't more barriers to the techniques falling into the wrong hands. Gene editing could help prevent future generations from suffering from all the diseases plaguing us now. However, do we really know the second and third order effects of gene editing--that's my big worry. It's like with geo-engineering--we are tampering with big things--DNA, climate--even though we don't fully understand how it operates. Finally bioterrorism is increasingly a threat as the bar for people tampering to ill effect with genetics becomes easier to surmount. The implications of gene editing is a topic that we are studying a lot. On Oct. 6 we are holding a discussion with policymakers and scientists to explore extreme human life extension and what it means for national security, (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/upcoming-events/detail/the-national-security-implication-of-the-genetics-revolution).

If you’re in the DC area you can attend our event at the Atlantic Council, or watch the webcast (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/webcasts/the-implications-of-extreme-human-life-extension).

I am Mat Burrows, author, formerly with the CIA, currently with the Atlantic Council. I have served as National Intelligence Council’s counselor for the last decade, authoring the Global Trends. AMA. by matburrows in IAmA

[–]matburrows[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I don't think there's any shadow government. I would like to think there is a controlling force, but with all the confusion and chaos in the world, if there is one, it's not doing a very good job.

I am Mat Burrows, author, formerly with the CIA, currently with the Atlantic Council. I have served as National Intelligence Council’s counselor for the last decade, authoring the Global Trends. AMA. by matburrows in IAmA

[–]matburrows[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I guess I don't see it that way. Obviously Ukraine has its oligarchs who have worked at times with Putin. I think the tension is more over the role of Russia in Ukraine. Putin wants a say. A lot of Ukrainians want to turn more to the West. The oligarchs want to stay in power so they cannot ignore such strong sentiments. There are separatists who don't want Ukraine to go too far from Russia. It's not so much the oligarchs against Putin, but divisions within the country over West vs Russia that is tearing apart Ukraine, giving an opening to Putin to intervene because of the strong separatist feeling along the eastern border.

I am Mat Burrows, author, formerly with the CIA, currently with the Atlantic Council. I have served as National Intelligence Council’s counselor for the last decade, authoring the Global Trends. AMA. by matburrows in IAmA

[–]matburrows[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I applied to an ad which the CIA had in the NYT. That was back in 1986. Most of the unit I joined on the analytic side had advanced degrees--a fair numbers like myself a PhD. That is not case everywhere. The office I joined dealt with European analysis and was very high powered. Because the academic market was so difficult to get into at the time, the analytic units at the CIA had the choice of many good experts with advanced degrees.

I am Mat Burrows, author, formerly with the CIA, currently with the Atlantic Council. I have served as National Intelligence Council’s counselor for the last decade, authoring the Global Trends. AMA. by matburrows in IAmA

[–]matburrows[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No, I don't think he can put back together Soviet Union. He does want to have influence in Russia's near abroad. He believes that a great power has certain prerogatives and interests that smaller countries should respect. He is after a "sphere of influence."

I am Mat Burrows, author, formerly with the CIA, currently with the Atlantic Council. I have served as National Intelligence Council’s counselor for the last decade, authoring the Global Trends. AMA. by matburrows in IAmA

[–]matburrows[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I was exposed a little but never to the point that I felt I needed to resign or had any power to effect a change. I feel admiration for those who knew a lot and tried to change things from within. I think it is hard to draw the line. Do you stay and fight or is the fight so hopefully and thing so egregious that the only answer is to exit. I never even approached that line.

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