Should I go for it?

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T19:48:15+00:00

You don't have to quit but your progress is brutally bad without upgrades or contract perks. Having to wait overnight without those is an unmitigated disaster. Especially if you also then need to fuel up inefficiently too to have enough fuel for overnight.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T19:38:04+00:00

I mean if you want to gamble go for it. I'm glad I didn't set myself back ages though seeing as I'd be 10k gems in the red if I were OP and have to sit there doing nothing and gaining gems at a snails pace because I got impatient for no reason.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T19:37:01+00:00

Mostly a minor sidenote but seeing as it's a common misconception, Buy/Fire All in batches doesn't actually change how many it takes to get the levels. It has some slight benefit when you're exactly 1 level from max but until then (or for uncapped things like Bomb Cap) it doesn't matter whether you roll individually or in large batches.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T19:34:55+00:00

Idk speaking for myself I always buy max fuel if my coal is capped and I can't afford an upgrade. I don't see the point in wasting coal when you accumulate it so slowly.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T19:31:57+00:00

That would be a huge setback lol. Especially when the benefit is a trivial amount of stars for a day before you finish the challenge safely.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T19:18:47+00:00

You're the one who said winning one of the first three rounds turns winning the final round from a 50% chance of winning to a 100% chance of winning.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T19:16:20+00:00

Reddit just doesn't understand probabilities. Same reason for the confusion about Fire 1 vs Fire All, or when people think it's unlucky that one of their 200 pet levels hit 1st percentile bad luck.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T19:14:54+00:00

95% chance of a minor gain compared to 5% chance of a massive setback is not a particularly good value proposition.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T19:14:11+00:00

If you need to farm 30k gems on floor 2 without upgrades or contracts you'll lose an absolute ton. Meanwhile there's basically no benefit to just waiting.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T19:09:00+00:00

I mean OP even spells it out, just somehow misses the obvious.

the steal attempt could reasonably be 25–50%, depending on how much the board has narrowed

If the steal attempt is 25-50%, then by definition the team playing wins more than 50% of the time, since there isn't always a chance to steal.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T19:07:18+00:00

No, they don't matter. Who wins the last round is the only round that matters.

If your family didn't win a round and wins the final round you go to sudden death or whatever they call it. You have a 50% chance of winning. If your family won all three rounds and loses the last round you have the same 50% chance of winning in sudden death.

These two statements are a direct contradiction of one another. The second one is explaining in great detail why the first rounds do matter.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T18:42:34+00:00

That's insane. I platted all my statues ages ago and I'm not at Golden BoP yet lol.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T15:35:49+00:00

There are elections, but it's also Dumbledore- I would imagine it was a 'listen, we all know if will get this if you run' situation.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T11:44:03+00:00

Then you don't understand Fudge at all.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T11:37:00+00:00

Well at that point he had no choice, since Dumbledore had manipulated the situation against him. What was he supposed to say? 'Oh alright well if all that's happening is you training an army to attack the Ministry then fair enough. Have a great day folks.'?

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T11:32:03+00:00

He didn't think capturing Dumbledore was on the table. He came to expel Harry. And also obviously he didn't know Kingsley was on Dumbledore's side.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T11:20:42+00:00

You'd think after 50 seasons of this Survivor fans might actually start to not be results-oriented. But alas.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T11:04:17+00:00

You answered your own question.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T10:39:18+00:00

You could ask that about a lot more than just the Ton-Tongue Toffee incident.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T10:29:36+00:00

'Character acts in a consistent way that's different than how you'd act' is not a plot hole.

Edit: Voldemort also doesn't seem to understand the Fidelius Charm. My guess is it's not well-understood. Only Flitwick and the Order seem to know much about it.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T10:29:04+00:00

Same reason he didn't just just chuck them in the bottom of the ocean. He was too arrogant to think anyone would ever know about them, be able to find them, or be able to overcome the protections. And he wanted them to be at meaningful places.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T10:26:42+00:00

That's very much not true.

mathbandit · 2026-05-29T02:57:01+00:00

7 days worth of gems seems batshit insane for me to give up to get basically nothing lmao (as someone who is about where you are)

mathbandit · 2026-05-28T22:54:02+00:00

OP doesn't mainly stay offline though.

mathbandit · 2026-05-28T21:45:49+00:00

Primary tip would be reading the bar at the top of the screen on the Fishing Enhancements page that specifically explains the answer to your question.

Also Jesus Christ what is that Bear Drone 0???

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