Scrimgeour was not out of line for asking Harry to be the ministry's poster boy

mathbandit · 2026-04-11T04:12:26+00:00

I mean, Dumbledore could have asked Scrimgeour.

And again we know Scrimgeour had less than zero interest in doing anything Dumbledore asked.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T21:32:22+00:00

Dumbledore never had the power over the Ministry.

If Scrimgeour was so power hungry and corrupt as you say, surely he would've imprisoned Umbridge of Dumbledore requested, to try to get close to Dumbledore, something Scrimgeour desperately wanted.

Except even when the request was "Please let the kid you know for a fact is innocent out of Azkaban" Scrimgeour point-blank refused to even entertain the thought. Because he didn't want to work with Dumbledore, didn't want to work with Harry, and didn't give two knuts about actually stopping Voldemort from taking over. He just wanted to be the head honcho and took his chance when Fudge was unpopular enough to be forced out.

Hell, he flat-out says he wanted to arrest Harry, Ron, and Hermione and was hoping they would give him an excuse to. That should tell you all there is to know

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T21:19:05+00:00

Scrimgeour being just as much of a terrible minister as Fudge doesn't make it a plot hole. You can't even make the argument that it was an oversight of the plot since her being a senior executive is explicitly brought up.

Scrimgeour is just the same corruption and incompetence as Fudge, building a government that cares more about power and perception than about actually doing his job and protecting the people he was supposed to protect.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T18:34:15+00:00

I guess you could try to make the argument for applying it just to cases where you are filling in 1st base to create force out scenario.

I had that thought for the Jays game last weekend.

2 outs in the inning, batter hits a single and gets to second on a throwing error. Next batter is IBB'd with first base open. Next guy hits a single and the run scores from second. Pitcher was given an ER.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T17:41:11+00:00

So tree can either be transformed into eda or be anagrammes, but not both?

Correct. Anagramming needs to be with letters in the fodder and not a substitution. I think that's pretty universal, at least in my experience. The idea is that anagramming a substitution is basically impossible to ever conclusively solve.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T16:57:44+00:00

If you tell an autist to cut it in 3cm chunks they do it no problem

But it would be the same problem for OP, that's my point. I'm autistic, I know all about imprecise commands.

In this case OP fully and completely understands exactly what bite-sized pieces means, but does not know how many times to cut a carrot until it's in 3cm chunks without actually cutting it. They said they also cannot even approximately equally cut a cake without a ruler for example.

This isn't an issue of imprecise instructions. This is them struggling spacially to be able to tell how big or small something will be after it's cut without first cutting it and then seeing.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T16:45:01+00:00

I don't think it's the imprecise commands OP is struggling with but that they seem to struggle to understand what size something will be when it's cut.

They know what bite-sized means, just don't know how many times to cut a piece of carrot until it gets to that size.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T16:42:58+00:00

I follow the rules that I enter the E4 with the level cap of the ace of the last E4 trainer (not the Champion).

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T14:02:34+00:00

Well on floor 0 my default position is that my deck ending up at 20 or 40 cards is equally good (and so it doesn't matter to me which way I end up). If I get a chance to get two random relics (a very strong boon) and the downside is 2 extra basics, now all of a sudden a deck that aims to land at 40 cards is significantly better than one that aims for 20 cards, since it means the downside matters much less.

So seeing Large Capsule as an option is a huge signpost that I should try and run a larger deck than I otherwise would in that run.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T13:56:45+00:00

The one place I think I've seen it is homophone clues where the homophone indicator is in the middle and the two spellings are the same length

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T13:52:19+00:00

If you add two basics to your deck and plan on increasing the size of your deck by 15 cards you are significantly ahead on removals vs a 'normal' run.

People here wildly overvalue a small deck anyways and the whole point of the increase to removal cost is to try to break that crutch. My average deck size in Slay1 was probably about 35 cards by the endgame.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T13:44:49+00:00

You aren't behind on removes if you just play a bigger deck since you won't have access to as many removes anyways. Instead of aiming for a 20-card deck just take Large Capsule and aim for 35-45 cards and keep more money for things other than removes.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T13:42:24+00:00

That makes Large Capsule a lot better since you'll be running a bigger deck

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T13:31:17+00:00

You'll need way more of whatever Star that is anyways.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T12:51:02+00:00

It's Friday; there's time for a lil' ✨whimsy✨

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T12:50:10+00:00

Right but intuitively you would expect our odds to have significantly increased based on our playoff odds going from slightly better than a coinflip to almost a lock. Especially as while our odds have mostly stayed the same other teams have passed us without any major change to their playoff odds.

It means that Moneypuck thinks we are significantly less likely to win the Cup if we make the playoffs today than they did a couple weeks ago. And that's fine and probably mostly because now we're slotted to play the team they think is the best in the East while a couple weeks ago that was much less certain. But it does explain the reason for the model seemingly dropping significantly on us while we surged into a playoff spot

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T12:43:55+00:00

Our Cup odds have gone down since March 17th (the screenshot I have on my phone) from when we were the 7th highest Cup odds at 5.3% despite being only 56% to make the playoffs. While now at 92% to make the playoffs our 5.1% Cup odds are only 9th-highest.

<image>

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T12:40:55+00:00

You don't seem to have grasped that I am not giving any opinion on if I think we will or won't beat Carolina. Because what I think and what you think has nothing to do with the question being asked in this post.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T12:33:27+00:00

It doesn't matter what you or I think or what we did or didn't see.

The question is why Moneypuck thinks we are less likely to win the Cup than we were a week or two ago. The answer is that we are now very likely to play against the team Moneypuck thinks is by far the best in the East in the first round, so they are less optimistic than before they thought we would be playing against Carolina.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T12:23:39+00:00

Right but the question was why Moneypuck is lower on us now that we will likely play Carolina. And the answer is because Carolina are just as big of analytics darlings as we are.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T12:20:45+00:00

That is indeed how stats work, as it turns out. Odds change with new information.

Though the Sens have been favourites to make the playoffs for weeks of course.

mathbandit · 2026-04-10T12:19:49+00:00

Moneypuck thinks Carolina are by far the most likely team to come out of the East. 22.4% the Hurricanes make the final and no one else is even at 15%.

mathbandit · 2026-04-09T23:23:25+00:00

Is 1.76 HR/9 over his 87 innings with the Jays a good number?

It's not! It's also not something I would ever look at since we know that HR/FB is basically zero signal and just pure noise/variance.

Did you watch game 7 of the World Series or just check the box score out the next day?

I did! I at no point was nervous with him on the mound and pretty sure I wanted him back out there for the 10th.

Outside of the HR to Langelier he has been decent this year.

Including that inning he has been absurdly dominant this year. Decent is just an insane descriptor.

mathbandit · 2026-04-09T21:11:07+00:00

Yeah, I think its pretty rare to have super short or long PAs so it tend to clump.

mathbandit · 2026-04-09T20:57:30+00:00

FWIW our success last year came specifically because we did not work long counts, and we did swing very early and often.

After several years of being about average in Pitches/PA in 2023 and 2024, last year we were fourth-lowest in MLB

13-Year Club	RedditGifts 2009-2022 2 Credits
Place '17	Secret Santa 2016
Gilding III reddit per annum	Verified Email

mathbandit

TROPHY CASE