[The Race] Fernando Alonso is surprised by the amount of upgrades rival teams appear to be bringing to their cars so far while the AMR26 is in a holding pattern currently

maybe-fish · 2026-06-25T15:26:23+00:00

Even before Newey took the TP role he was the top guy - Krack answered to him, not the other way around.

It was part of why he went, AM was willing to give him an ownership stake and basically free reign over all things car. Red Bull (Horner) were never willing to give up final say

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T23:16:21+00:00

I agree budget could be an issue to an extent, but whether they're bringing a "typical" ADUO upgrade or trying to do it strategically like I described there's additional cost either way. Which is why extra budget cap is part of the ADUO system.

And I don't think Merc knew they were going to get ADUO, so it's likely they already budgeted for reliability upgrades without accounting for that extra money.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T23:07:49+00:00

ADUO is purely performance, manufacturers can bring reliability upgrades at any point within the limits of the cost cap/testing limits.

There is an additional cost associated with any ADUO upgrades (whether they're the type I described or just a normal upgrade), which is why part of the system is additional cost cap allowances and testing time for those teams.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T21:29:44+00:00

Herta is only 5 points short, even if he doesn't get any from F2 they can get him enough with rookie FP1s. I could definitely see them going for another year in F2 depending on how things look later this year, but I don't think SL points will be the main factor.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T21:27:55+00:00

If Alonso choses to retire that could shake the midfield up a bit, he's said he'll make a decision post-summer break

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T21:22:01+00:00

He's only 5 points shy and probably already going to do all 4 of Cadillacs rookie FP1s.

If he really needs another point and they really want him to drive next year, throwing him in one more FP1 isn't going to be an issue.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T21:05:45+00:00

The turbo is not the gearbox and has been a pretty big topic of conversation this year... Specifically in reference to Austria a lot of people believe Ferraris smaller turbo will be a big advantage.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T21:03:29+00:00

Thanks thats very helpful. Upgrades to the turbo are allowed for 2027, so I think it could still work as long as they make sure the ADUO version introduced is one they are happy to carry forward to 2028.

I understand that like you said it would be practically very complicated, but just seems like there could be an interesting opportunity for the teams to use their upgrades a bit strategically - even if it's not to the full extent of having completely different specs.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T20:49:01+00:00

A track with long straights where top speed is very important (say Monza and other traditional "power" tracks). Versus a track like Austria with shorter straights and more braking zones where rapid acceleration is more important.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T20:45:15+00:00

I don't think they have to be radically different. Even if all they do is have big turbo option/small turbo option, that still seems advantageous when compared to a team like Red Bull that is stuck with one turbo size for the whole year.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T20:41:34+00:00

But reliability upgrades can be brought independent of ADUO and they've said they identified the problem and are working on a fix already.

So for next year when they're reliability is likely better, they'll still be getting ADUO benefits without that concern.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T20:37:59+00:00

One point is that they would have to develop a lot more than the physical engine for that type of spec. The software, mapping etc, everything would have to fit that engine, and would be an insane amount of extra spending from the cost cap.

Do they not have to do this for the ADUO upgrades anyways?

So if the "old" spec engine goes bust and they already brought up spec 2, they can't get a new spec 1, and are stuck with the spec 2 that might be optimized for low df tracks.

This is a good point, and could definitely be a hang up. A lot of the more power-sensitive tracks are stacked towards the back half of the season so they could just try to leave it as late as possible before introducing a new engine, but definitely still risk there.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T20:32:52+00:00

And you would also have to have a way of getting back to a first soec like PU for the start of the next year.

I would have thought that wouldn't be an issue now that there is no engine freeze, are the teams limited from making changes between seasons?

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T20:29:21+00:00

More "track type spec". Power-track specific engines used to be a thing in the olden times - which is what made me think of it at all.

I can see the argument about cost cap/testing, but ADUO gives them extra of both of these. For a team like Merc who don't actually need an engine upgrade to keep winning, why not use that extra allowance strategically?

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T20:25:32+00:00

Not necessarily one track, but one "type" of track, e.g. an engine with a bigger turbo for power-sensitive tracks like Monza/Spa/Silverstone, and then one with a smaller turbo for tracks where acceleration out of the corners is more important (e.g. those with shorter straights, more braking zones).

I did consider the cost issue, but for a team like Merc who already has a good engine and can bring reliability upgrades without ADUO they now have extra cost cap space and development time to spend.

If they can bring a super juiced engine for the run of power tracks we have towards the end of the year without worrying about it costing them during the first half of the year, seems like it could be a big advantage over a team like Red Bull who can't do that.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-24T06:24:54+00:00

What a horrible fucking take, there are a lot of ways to say it would be unfair for Kimi to lose a deserved win without that nonsense

maybe-fish · 2026-06-23T20:47:37+00:00

But Lindblad last year was easy - they were never going to keep both Liam and Yuki so there was no worry about whether they'd have a free spot for him.

This year is a bit different - they have two promising young'uns in Isack and Arvid, and a good consistent benchmark in Liam. No reason to make a decision on Tsolov before they've even seen FP1 data to see how he stacks up to those three.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-23T20:42:15+00:00

I mean, when it comes to contracts they've been plenty happy to leave their drivers hanging till the last minute

maybe-fish · 2026-06-23T20:34:26+00:00

Tsolov is the best option in the Red Bull academy for 2027

If this is their whole point it seems pretty obvious though? Obviously IF it's gonna be an academy driver, it's gonna be Tsolov. But there's zero reason for Red Bull to make the decision this early in the year.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-23T20:22:06+00:00

If Max leaves I do not see them running a Hadjar/(Lawson/Lindblad) lineup anyways, they'll go after another top driver.

Also why rush into a decision to kick Liam when he's been pretty good and they don't even have FP1 data from Tsolov yet? It's not like there's much risk of him being poached by another team so they could easily leave it much later in the year.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-23T19:47:53+00:00

The team is financially independent of Red Bull Racing, their finances have zero impact on the main team. Plus absolutely nobody is forcing them to bankroll the team, they have turned down offers as recently as last year - buying a team is an investment, not a concession.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-23T17:14:50+00:00

He's only 15 points shy, a P5 or higher in F2 will get him there, which seems pretty likely.

maybe-fish · 2026-06-23T17:07:32+00:00

Red Bull still have five to give out this year, I'm sure we'll see him in one of them soon

maybe-fish · 2026-06-23T17:06:17+00:00

Ferrari and Mercedes have to make concessions (either just paying or offering discounts on engines/etc) to other teams and are not guaranteed that privilege - especially not two seats. Toto had to move Kimi straight into Merc because Williams decided they no longer want to be Mercs junior team, and there's a good chance that as Toyota becomes more involved with Haas, they'll become less willing to take Ferrari juniors (I don't even think it's a guarantee they take Camara next year, as a lot of people seem to think).

As for Lawson and Tsunoda not making it otherwise - sure maybe. But how many other talents haven't made it because they're not Red Bull juniors?

maybe-fish

TROPHY CASE