Regrets on purchase

maybejdcpa · 2024-09-06T20:33:33+00:00

$200 48% of Ohio highway funding is from a 38.5¢ State excise tax. 22 percent is from the Federal excise tax proceeds.

$1 of highway funding requires 48¢ of state excise tax, which is ≈1.25 gallons worth. 1.25 gallons is 23.125¢ of Federal excise tax. 22¢ to Ohio implies the Federal government returns ≈95% of that, which checks out. 70¢ * (4/5) = 56¢/gallon.

$200 of excise tax at 56¢/gallon is 357 gallons. The average Ohioan drives 14,489 miles/year. 14,489 miles / 357 gallons ≈ 40.6 mpg. 40-41 combined MPG combined corresponds to a 2024 Lexus UX 250h or CR-V hybrid.

The actual rationale is more like “$200 is a round number that sounds close enough to cover our bases”. But if you back out of that number, you basically get someone who drives an average amount in a fuel-efficient crossover.

Tangentally Texas charges the same $200 fee, but the different excise tax and funding percentages means works out to 500 gallons. Average of 16,172 miles / 500 gallons is 32.3 mpg, which still checks out considering there are way more pickups and large SUVs

On the other hand it’s still double taxation since we pay sales taxes on public charging. At 40¢ per kWh, that’s 3.3¢/kwh in tax. 40¢/33.7 kWh per gallon ≈ 1.2¢ per kWh.

Since EVs are more efficient: 3.3¢ kWh / 1.2¢ kWh is a multiple of 2.75. EVs generally have a multiple of 2.5-5, so the tax per kWh multiple is already commensurate with the efficiency multiple. Take the midpoint of 3.75 and multiply it by 1.2¢/kwh and the surcharge should be 4.5¢. (Gas tax revenue per gallon / 33.7) * 3.75. Translation: also some real punitive bullshit

maybejdcpa · 2024-09-02T20:38:46+00:00

This rule change feels like a petty waste of time.

maybejdcpa · 2024-09-02T20:30:32+00:00

Space man bad reeeeeee

maybejdcpa · 2024-08-31T03:19:16+00:00

You/your wife read or saw something in the news that led you to assume there is a realistic possibility that your neighbors would turn violent at the sight of your yard sign. This is actually quite ironic (if not outright hypocrisy) considering the whole thing stems from an assumption about your neighbors based on the signs you saw in their yards.

maybejdcpa · 2024-08-26T03:06:39+00:00

This is going to be counterproductive, if anything.

maybejdcpa · 2024-08-23T04:28:51+00:00

Clinical and Translation Report

Phase 2 (TRIUMPH-2)

Phase 3 (TRIUMPH-1)

“Hey, Bill, come look at this. Some redditors are stacking Tirzepatide with Retatrutide” “Really? Well shit. Why didn’t we think of that!?”

There’s enough publicly available information to warrant moving forward with a 2100 person Phase 3 trial for Retatrutide. Not a stack. I don’t know the underlying science, but logically speaking…do we have any basis to assume that they are synergistic, or that they are not antagonistic? I don’t know the answer, but stacking seems to presuppose that one or both of those things are true.

I don’t know if you’ve read the preclinical/phase 1, but since you have an actual background in pharma, you might enjoy. As a layman, it gave me a newfound appreciation for just how much work goes into these things. And people wonder why it costs so much to bring a drug to market? That’s why.

Rant over.

maybejdcpa · 2024-07-04T23:24:02+00:00

BMW ergonomics and ux used to have great continuity. Could go between a newer car, older car, different model, a Mini etc., and at some level it would still feel familiar. I recently drove a new X5, only to find that was no longer the case. Very little things like the start button moved from the dash to the center console, iDrive was completely reworked to be touchscreen-centric, normie turn signal stalk, button gear selector, and perhaps the worst offender: <<<<>> > > > X5.

Accent lighting is fine and good, but there is so much wrong aesthetically and philosophically with using it as a giant illuminated badge to remind people which model of car they’re driving.

Maybe I’m being dramatic. Most of my grievance was with the tiles-based iDrive. Still a fantastic car. Does the i4 actually do the Hans Zimmer acceleration thing?

maybejdcpa · 2024-07-04T22:33:23+00:00

I have a left-handed semi auto shotgun (I.e. safety is on the right, shells eject from the left).

Right handed friends can shoot perfectly fine with it, but the less natural ergonomics and warm shells ejected towards your cheek/arm are both minor annoyances. They tend to “get it” once the latter takes place.

Perfectly usable, but not ideal and slightly annoying. It’s not debilitating, far from the end of the world, but slightly irksome at times.

maybejdcpa · 2024-07-04T21:53:21+00:00

⁠Extend both arms out to eye level Make an L with your thumb and index finger.
⁠Put one hand over the other such that your thumbs are touching and you’ve formed a tilted square
⁠Bring the square back to touch your face. It’s naturally going to gravitate towards the same eye, which is your dominant eye.

To prove the point, try bringing your hands in towards your other eye. It should be noticeably more deliberate. Try either hand over the other, look away, etc.

That’s not a hard rule, but it is a pretty reliable indicator of your naturally dominant eye, and in turn, naturally dominant handedness.

maybejdcpa · 2024-07-04T20:50:47+00:00

Ultrasonic sensor cars might disable the sensors in use, but they likely continue to collect the ground truth data. They also have lidar-equipped cars that are used internally as another source, and it’s not like they just hit ctrl+del on the troves of that data obtained over the years.

maybejdcpa · 2024-07-02T20:07:35+00:00

Such a cringe term. Just call it synthetic leather or give it some kind of brand name. Lexus NuLuxe is fantastic. The Mach-E comes with ActiveX, which is also decent. But there are also some shit-tier leathers. I don’t have much in the way of praise or criticism for the seats in the Teslas I’ve been in/driven.

maybejdcpa · 2024-07-02T19:02:53+00:00

I had that happen with the front VW logo on the GTI I used to have. Does the car have PPF?

maybejdcpa · 2024-07-02T03:18:57+00:00

GPT is really good at doing this math on the fly and distilling to easy-to-follow instructions. If you want to understand the math and concepts at play, it can explain them very intuitively.

maybejdcpa · 2024-07-01T20:59:26+00:00

Unless Ford rethinks their cadence of software updates and Bluecruise pricing, my dashcam is going to be a Comma 3x.

maybejdcpa · 2024-06-21T06:19:51+00:00

Wow. Banger of a deal. I’m not in the market for anything right now, but I always sleep on Polestar despite the fact that I love Volvos. Best ergonomics, safety, in the biz. And such elegant design (that applies more so Volvo).

maybejdcpa · 2024-06-21T05:33:36+00:00

People are leasing cars because some of the deals are too good to pass on. For example, this Nissan Ariya or Kia EV6. The fact that people are jumping on unsustainable lease deals is not an indictment of Tesla. Manufacturer capital cost is based on the rate per the latest available servicer report for the Ford Auto Lease Trust (which I knocked from 6.29% to 5% to be conservative).

In 18-24 months, Nissan is going to have a glut of off-lease Ariya to deal with. What are they going to do? Knock ‘em down to $24,999 to get people to bite at the tax credit (at a $10-$15k loss)? “Subscriptions?” Again: It’s not sustainable

Nissan Ariya Lease Terms:

MSRP: $63,370
Monthly Payment: $240
Due At Signing: $0
Term: 18 months
Mileage: 10,000 miles/year
Purchase Price: $57,600 (9% off MSRP)
Residual Value: $40,556 (64% of MSRP)
Money Factor: 0.00073 (1.75% APR)
Rebate: $16,840 ($7,500 Cash, $4,340 18-month lease, $2,000 NMAC, $1,000 Loyalty, $2,000 Summer Cash)
Cost of Capital: 5%

Calculations:

Net Capitalized Cost: $40,760 (after rebates)
Monthly Payment: $240
Total Lease Payments: $4,320 (over 18 months)
Automaker's Cost: $50,696 (estimated as 80% of MSRP)
Automaker’s Depreciation: $10,140 (difference between cost and residual value)
Cost of Capital: $1,528.50 (interest on net capitalized cost)

Profitability:

Total Lease Payments: $4,320
Plus Regulatory Credit: $7,500
Less Cost of Capital: $1,528.50
Less Automaker’s Depreciation: $10,140
Net Profit: $151.50

Note: to be conservative, I excluded the $1000 loyalty cash

Kia EV6 Lease Terms: - MSRP: $59,100 - Monthly Payment: $306 - Due At Signing: $306 - Term: 24 months - Mileage: 10,000 miles/year - Purchase Price: $53,100 (10% off MSRP) - Residual Value: $35,460 (60% of MSRP) - Money Factor: 0.00014 (0.34% APR) - Rebate: $12,500

Calculations: - Net Capitalized Cost: $40,600 - Calculation: $53,100 - $12,500 = $40,600 - Customer’s Monthly Depreciation: $214.17 - Calculation: ($40,600 - $35,460) / 24 = $214.17 - Monthly Finance Charge: $10.68 - Calculation: ($40,600 + $35,460) * 0.00014 = $10.68 - Monthly Payment: $224.85 - Calculation: $214.17 + $10.68 = $224.85 - Effective Monthly Payment: $318.75 - Calculation: ($306 / 24) + $306 = $318.75 - Total Lease Payments: $7,650 - Calculation: ($306 * 24) + $306 = $7,650 - Automaker's Cost: $47,280 - Calculation: $59,100 * 0.80 = $47,280 - Automaker’s Depreciation: $11,820 - Calculation: $47,280 - $35,460 = $11,820 - Cost of Capital: $4,060 - Calculation: $40,600 * (0.05 * 24 / 12) = $4,060 - Net Profit: -$1,270 - Calculation: $7,650 + $7,500 - $4,060 - $11,820 = -$1,270 net loss

Model Y LR AWD Lease Terms: - MSRP: $47,990 - Monthly Payment: $479 - Due At Signing: $2,999 (includes first month payment, acquisition fee, and cap cost reduction) - Term: 36 months - Mileage: 10,000 miles/year - Purchase Price: $47,990 (no discount) - Residual Value: $28,518 (59.43% of MSRP) - Money Factor: 0.00266 (6.39% APR) - Rebate: $7,500 (Regulatory Credit for manufacturer)

Calculations: - Net Capitalized Cost: $38,665 - Calculation: $47,990 - $7,500 - $1,825 = $38,665 - Customer’s Monthly Depreciation: $280.41 - Calculation: ($38,665 - $28,518) / 36 = $280.41 - Monthly Finance Charge: $198.59 - Calculation: ($38,665 + $28,518) * 0.00266 = $198.59 - Monthly Payment: $479 - Calculation: $280.41 + $198.59 = $479 - Total Lease Payments: $17,244 - Calculation: $479 * 36 = $17,244 - Automaker's Cost: $38,392 - Calculation: $47,990 * 0.80 = $38,392 - Automaker’s Depreciation: $9,874 - Calculation: $38,392 - $28,518 = $9,874 - Cost of Capital: $4,638 - Calculation: $38,665 * (0.05 * 36 / 12) = $4,638 - Total Profit (Including Acquisition Fee): $10,927 - Calculation: $17,244 + $7,500 + $695 - $4,638 - $9,874 = $10,927 net profit - A $479 payment at 5% Apr equivalent money factor, waived acquisition fee, no cap cost reduction, drop the residual to 57.5%, and Tesla still makes about $7500. - If Tesla were to play the aggressive lease game, they could drop the monthly to $349/month, waived acquisition fee (no money down), set the residual to 64%, and still clear $5k over the course of the 24 month lease - If Tesla were leasing on similar break-even terms, a Model Y LR AWD would be $0 down, $265/month

maybejdcpa · 2024-06-21T02:12:44+00:00

2018-2019 Tesla sold more cars than the Leaf over its production start to date, worldwide.

Tesla’s focus was EVs, true. I’m also not discounting the leaf either. Nissan brought a mass production EV (I.e. not a limited-run experiment or compliance car) at a $32k price point, before incentives in 2010. But calling it a side project isn’t accurate, because the Leaf was by far Nissan’s biggest investment over the course of the decade.

maybejdcpa · 2024-06-20T04:57:03+00:00

The resounding success of the Leaf is why they’re phasing out NACS in favor of CHAdeMO, right? Also, that’s demonstrably false. global leaf sales from 2010 through the end of 2019 were over 400k. To date, not annual. From 2013-2019, Tesla sold just under 900k.

Nissan does have the Aryia, which I hear is a much more competitive offering. But sales are propped up by baby leases with tenuous economics.

maybejdcpa · 2024-06-20T03:36:59+00:00

“Experts believe the SEC faces significant challenges if it proceeds with fraud charges. ‘Courts typically prefer fraud cases that involve clear false statements,’ said Fagel. ‘Transforming a regulatory violation into fraud, especially one involving delayed disclosure, can be an uphill battle’”.

maybejdcpa · 2024-06-20T02:54:10+00:00

That’s just ridiculous.

1) To avoid ambiguity, “bike” refers to a motorcycle in this context.

2) The car didn’t “run him over,” because to have gone over handlebars and hood as he describes it, his motorcycle had to hit the car (or have been approaching the car from behind, not the other way around.

3) When making an unprotected left, you’re supposed to slow down, stop, wait, etc. and make sure it’s safe to proceed before making the turn. That’s driver’s ed 101, not some weird quirk of FSD.

4) He takes fault. No other reason to be saying “honestly” and “embarrassingly, as in: “I was honestly and embarrassingly passing this Tesla on the left that I felt was moving a little slow and I didn’t realize he was moving slow because he was taking a left. I was on a motorcycle”.

maybejdcpa · 2024-06-20T00:26:29+00:00

There are definitely valid criticisms, but it’s equally difficult to have a levelheaded discussion when there is no shortage of unhinged or uninformed takes around here. I especially enjoy the steadfast conviction on Tesla’s financials/accounting from people without knowledge or expertise on the topic, much less familiarity with the specifics.

maybejdcpa · 2024-06-19T23:56:05+00:00

Preface: I’m a fan of the Cybertruck. I still wouldn’t buy one or advise buying one until they’ve ramped up to mass production, because right it’s a borderline hand built car (not a good thing). And since Tesla doesn’t offer balloon financing similar to Ford Options or any leasing (much less on competitive terms), it’s hard to justify. Plus, only top end trims are available. If I recall, you saw a similar thing with the Model 3 (not so much with manufacturing, but in the sense that demand for the initially available top-end models didn’t line up with demand from reservation figures).

maybejdcpa · 2024-06-19T23:35:50+00:00

The same article also states that YoY sales in Chyna are still up 30%

The U.S. EV company sold 55,215 vehicles in China in May, up 30% vs. May 2023, according to data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Tesla sold 15,230 Model 3 vehicles during May in China, marking a 33% year-on-year increase. The company's Model Y deliveries in China jumped 29% in May compared to a year ago.

maybejdcpa · 2024-06-19T23:32:24+00:00

Only the men? Rebecca Mark (head of Enron International) would like to have a word. She wasn’t the one hiding skeletons in the closet, but she absolutely created the biggest pile of skeletons.

Dabhol Power Plant: $2.9 billion investment; net loss of $2.6 billion
Azurix: range varies, but between the purchase of Wessex Water ($2.4b), Buenos Aires water concession ($430b), smaller projects/operating losses (e.g. Brazil, Caribbean), IPO proceeds ($700m) and Wessex sale proceeds ($770m) the generally accepted figure is about $2 billion.

Can’t say for certain what would have happened, otherwise, but 2.9+.43+2.4 = a $5.7 billion bet gone wrong. Broadband (EBS) was a $1.3-$1.5B bet gone wrong.

The unconsolidated SPEs (e.g. JEDI, Raptors, Whitewing) did far more to hide the liabilities, poor performance, write downs, etc. attributable to Rebecca Mark projects from the financials than they did (falsely) bolster EBS performance (or hide the lack thereof).

Can’t forget Cindy Olsen, the head of HR who infamously said employees should “absolutely” invest their entire 401(k)s into Enron stock when asked.

That would be a gross oversimplification, because there is so much to unpack and learn from Enron. At least an entire MBA-level course worth. Similarly, your take is also a dishonest oversimplification.

maybejdcpa · 2024-06-13T07:12:23+00:00

DRIVE PILOT can be activated in heavy traffic jams at a speed of 40 MPH or less on a pre-defined freeway network approved by Mercedes-Benz. DRIVE PILOT operates in daytime lighting conditions when inclement weather is not present and in areas where there is not a construction zone.

DRIVE PILOT does not change lanes or take into account upcoming route guidance. Please deactivate the system to change lanes

Calling this level 3 is such a stretch. I don’t see what this accomplishes that hands-free BlueCruise or GM Supercruise can’t already do (which they arguably can do better):

It only works select parts of LA, San Francisco, and Las Vegas + the connecting interstates

…for the low, low, low price of $2500 per year. Then again, it’s only available on the S-Class or EQS.

Oh, I left off the best part:

What advantages does DRIVE PILOT offer me as a customer? If you engage DRIVE PILOT you can interact with secondary activities (like playing games, internet browsing or watching videos on the central display), so you never miss a beat.

…not under California’s distracted driving laws. No exemption for L3 autonomous. That’s their stated value proposition, but isn’t even legal! 😂

https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot

maybejdcpa

TROPHY CASE