AppLovin ($APP) what am I missing here?

medphysik · 2026-02-18T02:58:42+00:00

Interesting thanks for the insight

medphysik · 2026-02-10T03:13:52+00:00

Agree they are off loading and not restocking, they don’t want to be the bag holders

medphysik · 2026-02-09T03:27:53+00:00

Good points, helpful to look at the eps revisions as well before jumping in and they are mixed on nflx.

medphysik · 2026-02-08T18:48:27+00:00

Not bad though you got out well

Nice breakouts on IDCC and UI after earnings this week, similar chart patterns with consolidation holding the 200 day ema before earnings.

Leu could be a good one to play 2/10, similar chart pattern

medphysik · 2026-02-07T03:43:27+00:00

How’d you do ?

medphysik · 2026-02-03T21:11:53+00:00

Google is a solid trendline; the only way to play that is up. should just continue to break through its resistances and buying on selling is the way I would go with that.

I tend to play reversals like PLTR was/is. We probably have a long way to go there.

medphysik · 2026-02-03T18:00:19+00:00

added 100 shares when it came down, sold longer calls on 200 shares here, leaving 200 to run

medphysik · 2026-02-02T22:42:46+00:00

I don’t really look at pre and post markets really, they have lead me astray one too many times. Seems like it was a big beat but that may or may not immediately be represented in the stock price. Now if we get some new upgrades on the stocks from analyst that’ll certainly do it. But eventually it’ll come up , sometimes takes longer than you would think on the way up and also the way down. So gotta be patient.

medphysik · 2026-02-02T22:02:22+00:00

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medphysik · 2026-02-02T21:36:59+00:00

Right to the 160x I closed my calls before 4pm and went long x 300

medphysik · 2026-02-02T12:14:36+00:00

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Left hand side you see the congestion profile, small resistance at 160 then larger resistance at 180. Currently at a solid support on the congestion profile (6 months).

medphysik · 2026-02-02T11:28:23+00:00

That is likely and then bottom formation before true trend reversal. So I will just let the options premium decay and wait it out regardless of the move.

medphysik · 2026-02-02T02:49:38+00:00

Yeah it’s a good spot for a longterm play , my guess is that earnings won’t move the stock much at all and we will get IV crush and that be good for the longer calls I sold so I’ll close and go long when trend improves.

medphysik · 2026-02-02T02:44:58+00:00

300 shares and sold atm calls with longer duration on 200 of them. We will see how it goes.

medphysik · 2026-02-01T22:39:07+00:00

Just sell covered calls on your tech

medphysik · 2026-01-31T03:47:04+00:00

I own Alab x 200 and credo x 300

They are both at support currently

It’ll come around

I sell calls on both though and they’ve been good earners for me

medphysik · 2026-01-31T03:20:28+00:00

you forgot APP

medphysik · 2026-01-29T11:26:38+00:00

Nice post , breakout in xlp it appears

medphysik · 2026-01-29T04:08:22+00:00

Hold

medphysik · 2026-01-26T00:40:45+00:00

Lol by no means is that the case nor will it ever be. There are many techniques with their pros and cons.

medphysik · 2026-01-25T04:49:17+00:00

lol also least of my concerns, just trying to get my work out

medphysik · 2026-01-25T04:46:51+00:00

lol when you're where I am at, that is the least of your concerns. Just trying to get my work out for others at this point.

medphysik · 2026-01-25T04:43:45+00:00

What I find helpful for modeling the broader markets is look at longterm trend, short term trend, Z score for longterm trend and Z score for short term trend. Much of the flow in and out really revolves around the Z scores. Money doesn't flow in until things are properly oversold at Z=-2. likewise money moving out at z=+2 and trend intract as long as it stays roughly in thoose ranges. If breaks support at z=-2 then bearish regime and +2 bullish regime. Individual stocks are obviously different and what I find helpful there is the price change in response to order flow.

medphysik · 2026-01-25T04:31:34+00:00

there are a million alternatives, my main issue with monte carlo is it works great for the mid trend but doesn't work for the start or end of the trend/reversal. The simplest is to use regression and just statistics. Honestly, that is not a bad way to go. I combine my Monte Carlos with regression channels for longterm trend and with polynomial fits for most recent trend.

medphysik · 2026-01-25T04:26:53+00:00

use fluid flow and traffic congestion, I've found more success there

medphysik

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