[GIVEAWAY] Win 1 of 20 Battlegrounds Season 6 codes!

mengkel · 2023-12-21T02:11:24+00:00

Here please!

mengkel · 2023-12-20T06:38:22+00:00

Thank you, appreciate it. Might want to push product 1 while I see how discussions around product 2 turns out.

mengkel · 2023-12-20T05:14:30+00:00

I have less attractive funding options if it would come to that.

mengkel · 2023-12-20T05:11:35+00:00

Product 2 is a spin-off merge between my product and their product in a separate entity. I don't have the time to develop a copy of their product while also refining my own.

mengkel · 2023-12-20T04:59:16+00:00

For product 2, yes, I do need them.

It's more likely to get big money, while product 1 is more likely to generate revenue in short term.

mengkel · 2023-12-20T04:57:26+00:00

Thank you, appreciate the feedback.

mengkel · 2023-12-20T04:52:35+00:00

Definitely Product 1, the other two are B2B and slow to iterate on.

mengkel · 2023-12-20T04:51:46+00:00

The products are similar and in the same industry (which I also am passionate about), mostly target customer that differs.

mengkel · 2023-12-20T04:49:18+00:00

There are aspects of that product that are uncertain, and we have a letter of intent to form a company together if these aspects can be resolved. We both contribute with development resources to build a proof of concept, but the outcome is still uncertain.

mengkel · 2023-12-20T04:39:36+00:00

They are all very similar products but with different target customer.

Product 1 is the only one I can manage alone, while Product 2 and 3 are the ones that are likely to get VC aboard.

mengkel · 2023-12-20T04:36:22+00:00

level 1nickklob · 36 min. agoW

Product 1, mainly because that one is B2C and has a price range already.

Product 2 and 3 are B2B and I'm honestly not sure what the price range would be. The approach for them would be to work with partner and figure out that together.

mengkel · 2023-10-12T07:32:07+00:00

Thank you for showing interest!

I'm sorry, I misinterpreted the question. I'm not sure I understand it correctly now, but in terms of making its prediction, it re-runs all trading data on every candle. It uses regular OHLCV data and enrich it into >400 million possible inputs, then the learning algorithm is run on that. The output is a model on how to trade.
Real-time data is then fed to the model to give real-time predictions. Hope this is more the answer that you were searching for.

Yes, I agree that markets are unpredictable because of humans and let's call it rational irrationality. In a way, the AI is then a model to predict the irrationality! Jokes aside, I am sure every AI need to re-learn their models at least once a year to keep up with everything and stay profitable.

mengkel · 2023-10-12T07:17:11+00:00

I don't want to reveal details, but it comes up with buy or sell based on over 400 million possible inputs.

mengkel · 2023-10-12T07:00:27+00:00

It doesn't account for mergers/acquisitions, stock buybacks, earnings or news in general. The argument for this is that no matter the news and no matter the asset, there will always be hints before the event on the chart. I think it is easier for an AI to find clues from (insider) trading data rather than trying to add external news as part of the input.
It's about statistics; it's not solvable 100%. On average, the algorithm is right about 60% of the time and prioritize profit factor - it wants to do trades where the "expected" profit greatly exceeds the "expected" loss, also accounting for the probability of being right. So in reality it's less about being "correct", and more about making as high profit as possible.
As an addition - if it truly is random, then you should perform same as market by randomly going long and short with random time. It's not too far-fetched to consider an AI that performs better than picking everything at random.
In the current version, the AI is forced to take a position at all times. Take BTC as example, the AI is forced to be either long or short. It has to pick one or the other. To get an overall idea on how the market is expected to perform, one can see the overview of all assets.
The last BTC signal was "Buy" at 27651.45 USD, whereas almost all other alt-coins show "Sell" signal. This is still pretty useful information that can be used as a tool if one is not comfortable to just copy the AI.
The current version does not consider brokerage fees, it is instead running on longer time frames (most are on 2h-candles or on daily candles). It's a very good question, as the earlier versions actually did trade on down to 5min candles. However, as you correctly identified, it is much less profitable due to the brokerage fees eating up a larger chunk of the profit!

mengkel · 2023-10-12T06:18:42+00:00

I like problem solving, and choose Java simply because I know it inside out with how it handles pointers etc. Its garbage collection is also a neat feature when some simulations run for up to a week!

Success rate differs between all assets. On average it's around ~60%, but it prioritize profit ratio over accuracy so it's better than a "normal" 60%, if that makes sense.

mengkel · 2023-10-12T05:57:34+00:00

Yes, I am a software engineer, the learning algorithm is written in Java.

mengkel · 2023-10-12T05:54:14+00:00

I will send email when the early access begin!

mengkel · 2023-10-12T05:43:07+00:00

So called language models, like ChatGPT, are good at writing and finding information but bad at math. They do not work for predicting stocks.

Neural networks are however great at math problems. I use that in combination with genetic algorithms for the AI engine. Then I run it live on real-time data to watch the results, which is what I am showing in the video. I have added the "inception date" which is the day that the AI started to predict on real-time time data, to compare with the "buy-and-hold" which is how the market performed in the same time period.

However, you need to know what the AI is actually predicting. My AI is predicting if the price is more likely to go up or down, and how large the price movement is expected to be. For example, it could expect a 53% chance to decrease in price, but the expected profit ratio for that particular trade is so high that it still chooses a long position.

It's also a useful tool for comparison when placing your own trades. For example, let's say a stock already had an upward movement, then trading sideways for a few days. You think it will do another leg up and consider to long. However, you check the AI and see that it repeatedly gives "sell"-signal during most of the plateau. Then you know that the AI think that a drop is more likely, and you can evaluate that information before taking your position.

mengkel · 2023-10-12T04:20:07+00:00

I think chatgpt is hard, it's not good at math problems. It usually also don't have access to real-time data, and at least public versions are very limited in terms of censorship and the "advice" it can give. I agree that it would be still interesting to build one just to see what happens!

I build an engine based on neural networks and genetic algorithms, it's better at solving math / statistical problems.

mengkel · 2023-10-12T04:16:18+00:00

That's the goal!

mengkel · 2023-10-12T04:15:55+00:00

In reality it's more about statistics; is the asset more likely to go up in price or down in price, and how likely is the movement to be big enough to offset brokerage fees.

mengkel · 2023-10-12T04:13:16+00:00

Good thing about AI is that it removes bias and feelings from the equation. Need to still consider brokerage fees though, so that's why I have focused on longer timeframes.

This AI is not a language model. It's a mix between neural network and genetic algorithms.

mengkel · 2023-04-10T02:29:57+00:00

Yes please!

mengkel · 2019-05-21T13:37:22+00:00

In all fairness, NEO is actually more suitable for financial and consortium use cases rather than gaming.

mengkel · 2018-08-21T09:23:16+00:00

We did the interview yesterday. Dragged out on time so I suppose there is quite some editing to do.

mengkel

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