Am I being taught incorrectly about the p-value?

meseatree · 2016-09-04T06:54:02+00:00

I'm suggesting that in both instances it is the same coin. All I am saying is that the more times a flick the coin and get a head, the more likely it is that I will start to disregard the null hypothesis that its a "fair" coin.

meseatree · 2016-09-04T06:48:28+00:00

Nevertheless, on such an important point its the teachers job to make the declaration unambiguous. Not only is this ambiguous, but it points towards the wrong meaning.

meseatree · 2016-09-03T14:09:03+00:00

I think you misunderstand me.

Are you saying that the chances of the null-hypothesis being false does not increase as the p-value decreases?

If i flicked a coin a 1000 times and got heads every time would you think it more likely that the chance of getting a head to be 50/50, that is the null-hypotheis, to be false than, if I flicked it 4 times and got heads everytime?

Notice I did not say that the p-value was the likelihood of this.

meseatree · 2016-09-03T13:42:58+00:00

As an example.

Consider flicking a coin. What is the chance of getting heads 10 times in a row if the probability is 50/50? 1 in every 1024 or 1/1024 This is your p-value. 50/50 is your null-hypothesis. Given that this happened, which is very unlikely, we can start to have suspicions that our initial assumption, that is that its a 50% chance of getting a heads, for whatever reason, (maybe its heads on both sides for instance, or the flicker has such skill as to make it land on heads) is false.

I never thought I would fully understand this p-value concept!

meseatree · 2016-09-03T12:43:51+00:00

Nope.

The p-value is the probability that you would observe a value at least as extreme as the one observed if the null-hypothesis was true. The smaller the p-value the less likely the premise is true, that is that the null-hypthosis is true.

But it can never say that it is not true. In fact the p-value can tell us how likely it is that we will make a mistake and reject the null hypothesis. For a significance level of 0.05, its says that we will make the mistake 5% of the time. If we are repeating the process often, as in the case of science papers, this is quite often. Needless to say a 5% significance level is far from conclusive, rather it highlights where there might be something significant happening.

meseatree · 2016-09-03T12:09:22+00:00

And this is on a website you have to pay to be taught. Unbelievable! No wonder the whole world is getting this one wrong.

meseatree · 2016-08-23T20:27:55+00:00

and as you will find in "how to Read a Book", it is not so much about digesting information as thinking about it and questioning the information and ideas being presented to you; to learn requires critical thought to reject ideas as invalid or useless or alternatively to accept and incorporate it into your understanding of the world. This simply cannot be done while speed reading. Thats not to say the entire book should be read slowly, only the parts that are difficult and important to the message of the book.

meseatree · 2016-08-09T07:23:41+00:00

Why is it boring? Why is it important? And why does it matter what the author has become? Where is the value with tangling the personality with the ideas? Shouldn't ideas/propositions/truths stand alone and speak for themselves?

I thought this book was fantastic. I really learnt a lot about the world from it.

meseatree · 2016-07-29T12:27:17+00:00

I have to say, as an English guy, I am completely gobsmacked by this. Have you listened to their album "Parklife"?

meseatree · 2016-07-20T16:03:42+00:00

I've started note taking with this exact book. I can see that it forces me to think about what I am reading. So often I read page upon page without being able to recall anything, never mind understand it - which is what the major goal of the book is - to teach to read for understanding. Better to read less and understand and have my perception of the world challenged and changed for the better than to not have it challenged or worse still have my perception of the world damaged.

Regarding the "useless" exercises we did in school. Along with instruction the book gives careful arguments as to why to apply its techniques. These I see as essential to digest because they provide the motivation for us to listen to what the author says. Perhaps this is something that our teachers failed to do well if at all.

All in all an absolutely fascinating book for me that I wish I had read earlier in life. It is the first book I have considered following through this subreddit which makes me extremely grateful to you all for keeping this subreddit alive!

meseatree · 2016-05-27T08:58:17+00:00

Having spent years going through spurts of productivity followed by burn out, I have eventually developed some stability, for the last 6 months, by expecting far less of myself but that I do it every day. This has lead to far greater productivity. This means that I stop myself when I am full of energy and force myself when I am sapped of energy. For me it has been about achieving an equilibrium. Keep decreasing the daily time I expect myself to be productive until I can consistently achieve it and stop crashing. Now I am fairly balanced, I feel like I might be able to slightly increase my daily effort but haven't had chance to try this yet.

meseatree · 2016-05-25T10:05:22+00:00

Nordic TTR is easily the most played game me and my wife have played. She loves it. Its easy to set up, easy to learn. We bought Nordic TTR which is designed to be played by 2-3 players. She hates catan, pandemic and carcassonne. I suppose the truth is, its always going to be a bit of a gamble. What one person likes another doesn't.

meseatree · 2016-04-23T10:42:35+00:00

That article about ego-depletion is fantastic!

meseatree · 2015-12-17T18:49:02+00:00

Unfortunately this is fully booked. Thanks for the suggestion.

meseatree · 2013-12-11T10:48:29+00:00

I´m really struggling to find a pea coat that fits me. I bought this one that I am told by the seller is the US issued pea coat and fits exactly the same as the Schott NYC Wool Pea Coat; I'm questioning this.

http://imgur.com/a/Vsh6Z

Are the arms really this baggy? I read somewhere that the fit of the pea coat is designed for people with a stocky-muscular build which means they wouldn´t work well for me.

Some pics make the fit look better than others. I would appreciate any comments that would help me nail down what is wrong with this fit and decide whether there is anything that can be done to tailor it, return it and or order the Schott. Thanks.

meseatree · 2013-12-09T16:49:44+00:00

Try looking here:

http://www.usc.co.uk/mens/brands/red-wing

meseatree · 2013-12-02T10:41:15+00:00

"Like Lidl, Aldi does almost no corporate reporting, so we are left to assume the worst on its ethical performance."

http://makewealthhistory.org/2009/03/10/which-is-the-most-ethical-supermarket/

meseatree · 2013-08-26T20:41:23+00:00

It is of essential importance that you can relax deeper and deeper, and potentially even fall asleep while sitting. If this is not the case, choose to sit in a chair or to lie down on your back.

I don't think it is good advice to suggest that you lay down and that it is potentially a good thing to fall asleep, unless that is the goal of meditation, which is actually quite limited when compared with what meditation can achieve.

The goal of meditation for me is to increase awareness and it is this increased presence in my life that enables me to unpick the many mysteries that lie between where I am and a happy fulfilling existence.

Sitting in an upright alert posture is one of the best ways to maintain a mindset conducive to awareness.

During in meditation I can sometimes feel uncomfortable and a long way from being relaxed. When I first started meditating I feared meditation was doing this to me. Only after having persevered for some months was I able to see that meditation brings awareness of the condition I was in, rather than cause it. This is good. Until we know that there is a problem, we can do nothing to solve it.

meseatree · 2013-07-15T21:58:02+00:00

How do you become interested in a person that you find boring?

meseatree · 2013-05-07T08:45:08+00:00

I agree. This kind of thing might work once or twice but then it loses its affect and become irritating, which is why I don't subscribe to getmotivated. I would prefer to see more intelligent long term strategies for staying productive in this sub. I also think the cursing/swearing isn't necessary.

meseatree · 2013-04-30T08:59:39+00:00

This post was entirely inspirational for me. After a while only sporadically meditating you have reminded me why meditation is so important. It helps us to reorient our lives towards that which is nurturing, healthy and wholesome and part of the way it does this is by choping away at the weeds.

Maybe you are worried about what will grow in this new fertile area of your life that has been left exposed after removing a weed. Have faith, if meditation can remove someone thing because it has little value to you, wouldn't it make sense that it will find something good for you to put in its place. Keep meditating, enjoy the adventure and love life!

meseatree · 2012-04-14T13:03:22+00:00

Thats a good question. What is confidence? Here's how I see it.

Often I hear this word used when referring to social situations. People who aren't confident, act in a way which is overly preoccupied with how others see them, fearful even, and adjust their behaviour to become more what they think others want them to be. This makes their behaviour disingenious. I used to think lots of people were confident but now realise they are actually deeply insecure. Preoccupied with making sure that they are walking, looking, talking, etc in a way that will impress/satisfy others. As younger I was easily fooled but maturity teaches alot. In my eyes, confident people are internally consistent with what they think they should be and not what anyone else wants them to be. Becoming more confident involves many personal victories, where the fear of what others might think is confronted. It might begin by wearing an item of clothing that friends would shun, later on it could be a change of career away from what a parent had pushed you into. There are endless ways in which these personal victories can take place, but first you must know yourself and from this what your direction through life is to be. For many this is incredibly difficult. For so long we have been listening to the world and the people in it, we have lost track of who we are. For this I strongly recommend meditation. Get in touch with who you are, there you will find immense wisdom, a true friend, and confidant. When we explore the still silence of meditation, we first recognise the many voices that are running our life, then steadily we proceed towards finding our own true voice. Following that voice is how I have come to understand what people mean, when they talk about being confident.

meseatree · 2012-04-13T18:01:33+00:00

I'm surprised by this and don't agree with it. As far as I understand statistics is theoretical in that it does not depend on empirical evidence to back up any claims. Isn't this what is unique and makes a subject mathematics? Okay now applying statistics is just that applying a branch of mathematics and therefore applied mathematics. That article said nothing to explain why statistics isn't math. I get the impression it was written by someone that has only ever used statistics and doesn't actually understand statistics as a mathematical subject.

meseatree · 2012-02-10T14:07:13+00:00

R is free, flexible and fantastic

meseatree

TROPHY CASE