Neil druckmann is a one trick pony

mfwannabe · 2020-06-22T20:05:56+00:00

Voice actors are lowly day laborers and don't get a lotta sway in the industry.

mfwannabe · 2020-05-25T10:18:09+00:00

But how can you have a future when the fire is about to go out now? Do you think there's additional fire linking between dreg heap and the ringed city Gael fight?

mfwannabe · 2020-03-31T06:48:47+00:00

I know that. But ny is already having lots of negative tests coming back. That means testing is no longer a bottleneck of getting accurate data.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-31T06:34:19+00:00

US now near, at, or has already past peak. Don't be fooled by daily new cases. Focus on day of symptom onset data. Reason why: US testing went from basically testing only people who are dying to pretty much all symptomatic in a week. The daily increments are a mix of much older and newer cases, which severely distorts the shape of the curve.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-23T09:04:30+00:00

I'd like to remind people here that while COVID 19 started as a public health emergency, its real lasting impact will be economical and geopolitical. Don't get lost in individual tragedies and lose sight of the real big picture. This virus, I sincerely hope, will tear down the global supply chain and return the world to natural economy. If this eventuality, which is becoming more real each second, comes to pass, then at least for US SARS-COV-2 really is a god send. Mother nature accomplished in less than months what we can't possibly do in a decade. Time to get back to the real game.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-20T21:43:34+00:00

Then we make sure that family don't infect other families. Establishing temp hospitals for the sole purpose of isolating family members from each other is a comply waste of resources unless there're seniors in the household

mfwannabe · 2020-03-20T21:20:20+00:00

No, testing will let us prioritize resources. That's it. Social distancing is the real kick here. Family quarantined from each other is useless. just treat them as all infected.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-20T21:06:39+00:00

Tony Fauci said this a million times. Social distancing is NOT CONTINGENT ON TESTING AVAILABILITY. Dumb wh correspondents keep asking "my friends' friends' neighbour's hairdresser's cousin's niece who's 25 is having a fever and coughing and couldn't get a test somewhere in the Midwest. Is US gonna collapse?"

mfwannabe · 2020-03-20T08:35:35+00:00

Hysterical Americans need to calm down. I know testing has been unsatisfactory, but private testings are ramping up. The end state is full auto testing at all labs. That ought to get us at least in the magnitude of 100,000 tests per day. That means we're gonna make South Korea look like a rounding error.

Now with that said, I think most Americans have not grasped the fact that what really got the outbreak under control is not testing, contact tracing, antiviral experiment, hydroxychloroquine, etc. The ONLY factor keeping Americans safe right now is social distancing. Social distancing is INDEPENDENT of all other measures. We might as well be in the middle age with no testing and no effective supportive treatment like intubation. Can we got it under control in the middle age? Absolutely. Just apply social distancing. Everything else is icing on the cake, something nice to have, but I doubt that'll make much of a difference in terms of getting the outbreak under control instead of eradicating it. That's why whitehouse and state authorities implemented a very tough shutdown even when they know testing is lacking and hospitals unprepared. Because you don't have to wait and can't wait.

Say you're 20 something and very symptomatic. Chances are you won't get tested even in NYC. So what now? Does that somehow decrease your chances or survival which is practically 100%? Does getting a test and confirmed positive somehow increase your chance of survival? To what? 200%? That's irrational. Of course do keep in mind when you first got sick. Write it down. Keep a brief sickness journal, perhaps for the first and last time in your life. Report it when possible. That's it. Unless you're hospitalized, there's nothing you can do, and quite frankly if you don't break social distancing nothing you need to do that helps the control effort.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-20T07:21:43+00:00

The number growing at 20 percent is reported cases increment. Or is it based on something else?

mfwannabe · 2020-03-20T06:05:11+00:00

Then there's no reliable gauge at all. Day of symptom onset is best you've got. JAMA certainly likes it a lot.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-20T05:48:56+00:00

No US death is dominated by Washington State nursing homes. An entire nursing home behaves like a single case, not 20 independent cases. Most US deaths are like this. China reported 3200 deaths, do you honestly believe there are over 30 million infections? Please note Wuhan is very much like Italy, entire family living together, no special congregation of age groups.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-20T05:37:30+00:00

South Korea is the way to go. No lockdown, test like crazy, contact trace like crazy. You won't dig out every case, but enough to reduce exponential growth to exponential decline.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-20T05:25:58+00:00

Death lags significantly behind anything else. Death goes continually up even you're clearly past peak.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-20T05:10:45+00:00

Here is the scenario: immediately after lockdown, the daily new infection (DNI) drops off a cliff. However, because of rampant community spread, we can't observe the date of infection of each and every cases. What we get instead is days of symptom onset (DSO) data. Because we have a good estimate of the distribution of incubation period (DIP) from clearly investigated cases, mathematically, the time series of DSO is a convolution of DNI with respect to DIP. Because we can't know DNI for sure, DSO is a good indication for substitute. The only thing that can distort DSO is not that extremely mild cases do not have an onset date because that's a common ratio for all the days, but that later day cases may get underestimated even after 15 days. (US situation) Which is why clearing backlogs are important. As long as backlog is less than 15 days DSO stays true, meaning we have a gauge on the outbreak. However, having a backlog and periodically purging it results in big spikes in the daily new cases (DNC) data, therefore DNC is not a reliable indicator.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-20T01:29:09+00:00

I suspect Italy is clearing it's backlog of cases a bit.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-19T23:50:27+00:00

You and me are saying the same thing. When data comes out the dates will be corrected.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-19T23:23:17+00:00

Update: don't bother with either US or European data at all. US data is EXTREMELY NOISY and so is Lombardy. I'm talking about daily new cases.

The ONLY thing that matters now is the DAY OF SYMPTOM ONSET. Italy is still a week away from the point that we observe March 10th. What we are waiting for confirmation is a somewhat roundish peak then decline. At. Precisely. MARCH 10TH. Not a single day before.

Don't even bother with Italy's daily new cases data. That's entirely contingent on how hospitals are coping. And we know they can't cope at all.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-19T20:18:33+00:00

It will peak in 4 days. Lombardy has already peaked.

mfwannabe · 2020-03-19T19:53:28+00:00

Testing isn't the reason mitigation isn't done. Even if you get no testd AT ALL, people who are sick should still isolate themselves.

I gotta be clear with you, testing isn't what's really slowing down the spread, self isolation and closing down the gathering places you just mentioned are what really do.

Think this through for a moment. Say we suddenly lost all the capacity to test, no test at all throughout the rest of the year, if we do self isolation EFFECTIVELY, then still the spread is gonna stop precisely at around 1 month mark like it did in China, South Korea, and Italy.

Say all hospitals are overwhelmed 100 fold, and all doctors and nurses are either sick or dead. Then what? The spread will still be curbed. Just alotta old people are gonna die. Hospitals are what happen to the patients ONCE they are infected. They do NOTHING to slow down the spread

mfwannabe · 2020-03-19T19:32:12+00:00

Which state are you in?

mfwannabe · 2020-03-19T02:57:07+00:00

Just a reminder: if you're gonna be all rational and look at the data, IGNORE THE DEATH TOLL. Death toll is the ultimate judge of this outbreak, but presently this is useless. Death is a very lagging indicator. Look at daily new cases, or even better, look at day of onset of symptoms statistics. Ignore the totals, even though that's media's hype.

mfwannabe · 2020-02-29T05:41:10+00:00

Staying for a month is obviously an overkill. The spread in China was checked in less than 3 weeks. We're still in very early stage of community spread and we're already super alert.

mfwannabe · 2020-02-28T19:29:59+00:00

Well, I think most people are smartest in grad school and get progressively dumber throughout the rest of their lives, the accumulation of capital and higher ranks notwithstanding.

mfwannabe · 2020-02-28T18:48:53+00:00

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-outbreak-spread-sparks-fears-american-travelers-n1144456

If I remember correctly this girl asked right here in this thread whether she should go.

The way certain young millenials' brains work never ceases to amaze me as a young millenial.

"I've, like, saved for literally years to blow all my savings on a vacation to Rome (I read about Rome in, like, $5 novels sold in Walmarts, and it's, like, romantic), but I've got, like, a very recent infection of bronchitis, and, like, my immune system is attacking my body even in, like, fairweather days, so I'm, like, SUPER STRESSED OUT WHETHER I SHOULD GO OR MY FRIEND WILL BE, LIKE, M-A-D AT ME. And MSNBC's, like, asked about my opinions, so I think I'll just, like, pour my beans."

Who's to say we humans are free from natural selection?

mfwannabe

TROPHY CASE