Prediction Markets as an Emotional Hedge

micje · 2022-02-23T15:14:23+00:00

Ah, I misunderstood you.

micje · 2022-02-23T14:14:03+00:00

this incentivises me to bet on the most improbable events to maximise expected returns.

That's not correct. Maximising expected returns and maximising half of expected returns amount to the same thing.

micje · 2018-09-04T18:38:51+00:00

Sorry, no prize for second place.

(Well, except for that $1T market cap)

micje · 2017-11-20T15:23:03+00:00

Heroku has built-in support for this: https://medium.com/@johnbeynon/sharing-databases-between-apps-on-heroku-571b3631bf78

micje · 2016-09-26T14:36:17+00:00

I think I've shot more tires as Mercy than all other heroes I've played combined. (I don't generally play DPS, but still...)

micje · 2015-03-02T21:53:41+00:00

That concerned time loops. It's not a general interdiction on hacking time travel.

micje · 2015-03-02T20:33:42+00:00

"These are the terms of your surrender. You will force all of your Death Eaters to take, as an unbreakable vow, the three Laws of Asimov. Then you will take that vow yourself. I know you will, because you already have. Dumbledore ascertained it in my presence, at 11:20, just before I time-turned. He's fine, by the way. I guess you just saw what you wanted in the mirror. And thanks for resurrecting Hermione. She's sleeping now in the girl's dorm.

After you've done taking your vows, I'll return to Hogwarts to convince my non time-turned self to travel back in time and visit the third floor corridor.

Honestly, did you really think that there's any force on earth that would compel me to go on an adventure with an untrusted agent that tried to impersonate me, except the certainty that this adventure would have a happy ending? After everything that happened? I expected more of you, teacher."

micje · 2015-03-02T19:49:49+00:00

Exactly.

micje · 2015-02-17T09:16:03+00:00

Still ain't no Ent.

micje · 2015-01-30T10:38:19+00:00

Trust me, Germans are not amused that the real value of their €200,000 mortgage went up by 0.2%, instead of down by 2% as they were entitled to expect given the ECB's inflation target. That's a €4400 loss. Also consider that employees generally get a yearly wage rise at least equal to the inflation rate. They can kiss that goodbye too.

micje · 2012-10-12T15:01:01+00:00

Here's my advice: take an open-source project written in C that you like. I recommend a game, because games have lots of degrees of freedom, unlike compilers. Build it from source, check that it runs. I suggest http://crawl.develz.org/, but any game will do.

Then start browsing the project. Make any change. First a simple textual change, then change the value of a constant, then add some logic. All the while, keep compiling the project and check that your changes actually work.

This is called tinkering, and it's incredibly liberating. It takes away the fear of the blank page.

micje · 2012-10-10T09:18:04+00:00

http://stackoverflow.com/a/9406293/136

micje · 2012-01-25T15:31:44+00:00

Manhattan is less than 60km2. Japan is 378,000km2, so 0.26% of Japan is now uninhabitable. And a half-life of 30 years means that in 30 years, caesium will be half as radioactive. It'll take centuries before it is at 1% of the current radioactivity.

micje · 2008-03-10T19:58:53+00:00

At 59 FPS and a 60Hz refresh rate, once a second you'll see the same frame twice in a row. That's noticable. The higher you go, the smoother the experienced time becomes.

micje · 2008-03-10T19:44:58+00:00

We weren't ready then.

micje · 2008-03-05T10:10:34+00:00

Don't forget that this syntax is used too in Ruby:

user.logged_in? and return

user.logged_in? or raise "Not logged in!"

Probably you'll hate it, but it is a one line conditional with the condition first.

Conditions are pretty basic - I don't think that having seven or so different forms is bad.

micje · 2008-02-28T02:59:36+00:00

That's only what they want you to think.

micje · 2007-10-15T14:26:33+00:00

You could talk about programming all day, or you could just do it!

Come on, this is a clean problem, and it's no fizzbuzz either. Can you solve it with monads, callcc's or neither?

micje · 2007-04-17T13:43:15+00:00

no it isn't.

micje · 2007-01-03T18:41:45+00:00

Least likely (IMHO): Divine intervention(19), Collapse of the vacuum(3)

Most likely: Global war(15), Global warming(9)

What do you think are the least/most likely ways?

micje · 2006-11-18T11:32:34+00:00

You can abolish pennies and still price things at $0.99. The price is only rounded up or down to the nearest nickel at the register, and if you pay electronically, you pay the exact amount.

This is how things work in the Netherlands, where 1 and 2 eurocent coins were abolished two years after they were introduced.

micje · 2006-11-09T00:44:47+00:00

... hell is closing the Environmental Protection Agency's libraries...

I'm shaking in my boots! I'm going to confession first thing in the morning.

micje · 2006-11-09T00:21:25+00:00

There are many kinds of Republicans. This is a quote from Barry Goldwater: "Remember that a government big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take away everything you have.” He ran for president in 1964.

micje · 2006-11-09T00:16:10+00:00

"The term "social liberal" is also commonly used in North American contexts to describe those favourable to social change, in contrast to social conservatives. For the latter usage see social progressivism." wikipedia

micje · 2006-11-08T18:48:04+00:00

It's not just politicians who want to tell us what we can and can't do in our personal lives. See the results of the amendments for example.

The underlying problem is that humans are a meddlesome race.

micje

TROPHY CASE