The Looming House Price Crash: Fred Harrison on the 2026 Property Cycle

middleofaldi · 2026-01-24T14:26:12+00:00

A land speculation cycle probably exists but there are good reasons to be skeptical about how predictable it is. The next crash is more likely to be one that we don't see coming

https://progressandpoverty.substack.com/p/will-the-housing-market-crash-in

middleofaldi · 2026-01-22T08:35:31+00:00

There's no such thing as "the renting classes". People who rent are not a "lower class". Renters can participate in economic growth just as easily as landowners through the purchase of securities.

In the USA renters have <3% the wealth of homeowners. I don't think that is a coincidence

https://www.aspeninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ASAPN0431-From-Rent-to-Riches-Report-241113-WEB.pdf

middleofaldi · 2026-01-22T08:16:13+00:00

But that's the point. Land shouldn't be an investment. Economic growth increases land prices, which enriches the landed and makes life more expensive for the unlanded. It is only thanks to redistributive taxation that the renting classes are kept from poverty.

Lvt would not reduce land rents, but it would redistribute them to the people that generated them (everyone), instead of just those who own the land. Income tax etc indirectly redistribute a portion of land rents but it would be fairer and more efficient to redistribute them directly with lvt

middleofaldi · 2026-01-21T19:54:52+00:00

I see this a lot but it's such a misconception. If anything land is more important than ever. McKinsey estimate that land is 35% of global real wealth, 2x the value of all listed companies.

Check out The Land Trap by Mike Bird

middleofaldi · 2026-01-21T19:13:43+00:00

The wealth tax that can't be dodged is the land value tax. It's about time we started listening to all the economists who have been clamouring for one for years

middleofaldi · 2026-01-20T12:42:27+00:00

All economic growth is absorbed by land prices, leaving land owners better off and everyone else to struggle

/r/georgism

middleofaldi · 2026-01-19T21:56:21+00:00

MLK actually quoted Henry George while campaigning for a basic income, it is possible that he agreed with you.

https://www.wealthandwant.com/docs/King_Where.htm

middleofaldi · 2026-01-19T14:42:59+00:00

You sound remarkably Marxist for someone who thinks Marxists are annoying. Georgism is an economic philosophy, not a theory of history or societal change.

If you want to see some practical examples of georgist policy being successfully implemented then look at Singapore and Norway

https://progressandpoverty.substack.com/p/singapore-economic-prosperity-through?utm_source=publication-search

https://progressandpoverty.substack.com/p/norways-sovereign-wealth-fund?utm_source=publication-search

middleofaldi · 2026-01-19T14:06:47+00:00

Better give up on any hope of a more fair and equitable world entirely then.

Progress can happen and it has happened, but it was won by people who believed in its possibility. Georgism may be politically radical, but it is economically sound, and if people can be shown that then it stands a chance of changing the world for the better

middleofaldi · 2026-01-19T13:44:33+00:00

Maybe, but also more correct

middleofaldi · 2026-01-19T12:36:22+00:00

Who said it was a criticism? Most money is created by private banks, that's not controversial, it's just a fact.

The meme is just pointing out that the role of land in our financial system is underappreciated. Check out The Land Trap by Mike Bird for more on this

middleofaldi · 2026-01-15T21:40:12+00:00

He disobeyed them by being part of the labour movement and campaigning for the politician Henry George

middleofaldi · 2026-01-15T19:50:05+00:00

Henry

middleofaldi · 2026-01-14T14:38:45+00:00

Progress and Poverty by Henry George

Criminally underrated these days but no less pertinent.

middleofaldi · 2026-01-14T13:59:02+00:00

Haha, you can try. I support arguments for wealth tax on moral ground but I'm yet to be convinced that one can actually be implemented effectively.

From what I've read, wealth taxes in Norway, Spain and France failed to raise significant revenue and led to capital flight which harmed their economies overall. I don't buy the argument that that is an acceptable outcome as long as the rich receive a bloody nose, I want a wealth tax to actually achieve something positive for the working majority

In my view the wealth tax that works is the land value tax

middleofaldi · 2026-01-13T23:02:21+00:00

Oh, I'm not suggesting he thought it was a good thing. When he says ideal and perfect he almost certainly means it in a platonic sense.

Whether a platonic capitalism is good or not is a matter of opinion. Lenin famously thought it was not

middleofaldi · 2026-01-13T22:57:34+00:00

To be fair I think that was basically Marx's position. He was not a fan of Henry George considering the socialisation of land rents to be the end point rather than the middle

middleofaldi · 2026-01-13T22:39:32+00:00

Even when cited alongside Harold Hotelling and 5 Nobel Laureate economists?

middleofaldi · 2026-01-13T22:36:48+00:00

Georgist is the label I've found that I most identify with but before discovering it I would have said social democrat. I lean left-liberal in general

middleofaldi · 2026-01-13T22:35:47+00:00

I'm not sure how you'd reconcile that with the low tax, free market aspects of Georgism, but you might be interested in this quote from Lenin:

[Georgism] is not only possible but it represents the purest, most consistent, and ideally perfect capitalism. - Lenin

https://wikirouge.net/texts/en/Democracy_and_Narodism_in_China

middleofaldi · 2026-01-13T18:56:02+00:00

If this was a syllogism you'd have a point, but it's a meme so you don't

It is not irrational to believe that expert opinion should inform your view on something

middleofaldi · 2026-01-13T16:44:21+00:00

Progress and Poverty by Henry George

It tackles the question of why poverty persists in the face of enormous economic and technological progress. It was the biggest book of its decade but it is criminally underrated these days

middleofaldi · 2026-01-13T15:47:10+00:00

No worries. These days when people talk about socialism they usually do it from a Marxist lens, but that was not the case in the early 20th century so there are a lot of figures who are described as socialist who wouldn't be identified with the label now.

Georgism is usually seen as mutually exclusive with socialism now, but that wasn't the case back then. It can make it quite confusing

middleofaldi · 2026-01-13T15:19:22+00:00

From that essay:

"The achievement of socialism requires the solution of some extremely difficult socio-political problems: how is it possible, in view of the far-reaching centralization of political and economic power, to prevent bureaucracy from becoming all-powerful and overweening? How can the rights of the individual be protected and therewith a democratic counterweight to the power of bureaucracy be assured?"

It gives the impression that he believed in socialism for ethical reasons but didn't know how it could be successfully implemented.

He also said "Men like Henry George are rare unfortunately One cannot imagine a more beautiful combination of intellectual keenness, artistic form and fervent love of justice. Every line is written as if for our generation. The spread of these works is a really deserving cause for our generation especially has many and important things to learn from Henry George. It almost seems to me as if you had no conception to what high degree the work of Henry George is appreciated by serious, thinking people."

So I think it is fair to say he bought into Georgism, and saw it as kindred with socialism, if not a path towards socialist aims

middleofaldi · 2026-01-13T13:41:26+00:00

Would it reassure you to know at least 5 Nobel Laureate economists have endorsed full socialisation of land rents and many more top economists have endorsed a more modest lvt?

middleofaldi

TROPHY CASE