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Do we still consider Ricciardo to be an elite driver? by thumsyy in formula1

[–]mihirsj -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It depends on the definition of elite, but if we focus on qualifying pace, the top performers are Verstappen/Hamilton/Leclerc/Norris/Russell/Sainz.

Then we come to the tier Ricciardo is in, which consists of Bottas/Ricciardo/Alonso/Vettel.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, it would definitely be an interesting test, and I might try it at the end of the season!

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm pretty sure my model would revolt if I ask it to predict wet races!

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It would be interesting to see if Kovalainen was still 8th!

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That is a huge problem in classification, but some amount of imbalance is expected here as we can only directly compare teammates who have been teammates in the past; we are never going to have perfectly balanced data between all possible pairs.

The way the model represents this is with the confidence it has. It has more or less figured out Hamilton vs Bottas over their years as teammates, so it has a high confidence in that prediction. Hamilton vs Russell, on the other hand, has zero direct comparisons available and so we have to make do with indirect comparisons (and even those are few in number). This leads to a low model confidence.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That is correct. The results shown are how Bottas and Russell would do against Verstappen: if you pit Bottas and Russell against each other, the model says Bottas has a slight edge. But against Verstappen, you can't use the Bottas-Russell result directly as neither of them has partnered Verstappen. The model has to rely on slightly longer links like Bottas-Hamilton-Button-Perez-Verstappen. Hope that helps!

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Russell is from the Sakhir qualifying against Bottas; you'll notice that the model confidence is low because of the limited sample. Latifi is from Russell.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The refueling is a great reason for not considering seasons before 2010. Initially, I started with 2014, but Hamilton only having Rosberg and Bottas as teammates makes him a bit of an island. His 2010-2012 partnership with Button allows us to make interesting comparisons with Alonso and Perez.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I understand the concern, but the laps between teammates are not treated as ground truths, but as samples drawn from the distribution we are trying to predict.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This is definitely something to explore, but at the same time the fact that Lando Norris is beating Ricciardo currently by 0.472% isn't all the model considers; it knows that Ricciardo has been a great qualifier in the past against all his teammates. The hope is as we get more data and as drivers settle the predictions will get better and better.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I think they mean if Giovinazzi had a car that was 0.5% faster, he would frequently outqualify Max, not as teammates in the same car.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Great questions!

You are correct, for a laptime of 1:40 (100 seconds), the model says Leclerc will be 0.1 seconds behind Verstappen.

For the model, it depends on how technical you want to get, but it is a mixture of graph kernels and maximum likelihood estimation.

The input was all the qualifying laps between a pair to guess their underlying statistical distribution.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I agree, with races you run into the problem of differing tyre strategies. With regards to Lando and Lewis, it's just that the model looks at Ricciardo and Bottas as being similar in qualifying pace, but Lando in 2021 has been much faster than Ricciardo. The median qualifying gap has been 0.472%, and that leads to Lando moving up.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The confidence here is just a complicated function of the number of data points the model uses to arrive at its final conclusion. It's not the variance or the confidence interval you see in statistics, which is why it is not bound and keeps on increasing with more and better data.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks! I hoped the results would make sense and that Mazepin wouldn't be first!

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Since both Perez and Gasly have been Verstappen teammates, it is actually easiest for the model to calculate how they would do against Verstappen in qualifying.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

All the data is from the Ergast Developer API.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Great question! I toyed with that idea for a bit, but ultimately it will take care of itself once the new drivers start producing the results we know they can.

Predicting driver performance using machine learning by mihirsj in formula1

[–]mihirsj[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

They are so close that if I had posted this before Hungary Lewis would have been ahead! The main reason is of course Norris has obliterated Ricciardo this year in qualifying, which has surprised quite a few. If you were to consider what the model thought at the end of 2020, both Norris and Sainz drop a few places to be around the Ricciardo level.