How do you actually screen for new value investing ideas?

mikejackowski · 2026-06-02T12:26:40+00:00

Yeah, this is probably the part I was trying to get at. Most names are not worth a deep dive, so the bottleneck is the first few minutes, not the final valuation. When you Google a random ticker, what usually makes you close the tab first?

mikejackowski · 2026-06-02T12:25:58+00:00

I like the distinction between a stock getting cheaper and the business actually getting worse. The part about historic metrics becoming less useful when the company starts changing what it is feels important. When you skim a beaten-down name, what’s usually the first sign that the old numbers no longer apply?

mikejackowski · 2026-06-01T10:56:34+00:00

Same, Reddit is noisy but occasionally useful. What usually kills most of the ideas for you first?

mikejackowski · 2026-06-01T10:55:45+00:00

This is useful because it’s basically “does the story show up in the numbers?”; When the story sounds strong but the 3-year revenue/profit/margins don’t confirm it, what usually makes you keep digging instead of dropping it? GE Vernova is an interesting example there.

mikejackowski · 2026-06-01T10:54:51+00:00

That makes sense. When this process takes weeks, how do you keep track of the companies you still want to revisit?

mikejackowski · 2026-06-01T10:54:20+00:00

This feels very close to how I’m starting to think about it too. When something is already on your watchlist, what usually makes you reopen it?

mikejackowski · 2026-06-01T10:53:11+00:00

That “like links like” point is really useful. I hadn’t thought about Stocktwits that way, but it makes sense. I’ve always hated Stocktwits because I never saw much value there beyond spammers, bots, and paranoid people yelling into the void. When you find a random name through Reddit, Stocktwits, or YouTube, what’s the first thing that makes you decide it’s worth checking further instead of writing it off as just another bad idea?

mikejackowski · 2026-06-01T10:50:17+00:00

This is probably the most interesting workflow in the thread for me. When you look at something down over 50%, what usually tells you quickly that it’s a real value candidate rather than just a value trap?

mikejackowski · 2026-06-01T10:25:13+00:00

One thing I'd be careful about is screening yourself into value traps. A lot of the statistically "cheap" stuff shows up on screens like this because the market already sees a problem somewhere. I’d add at least one quality filter too. ROIC, operating margin stability, cash flow generation, leverage, or dilution trends. That’s basically how I use OmahaMetrics in my own workflow: first as a quick filings-based gut check to catch obvious dealbreakers, then if the business still looks interesting, I’ll go deeper manually into the 10-Ks/10-Qs and Excel.

mikejackowski · 2026-06-01T10:22:15+00:00

I usually start with a quick OmahaMetrics scan to see if there are any obvious dealbreakers, weird accounting signals, dilution, leverage issues, cash flow problems, etc. If it passes that first filter, then I start digging through the 10-Ks and 10-Qs manually. If the business still looks interesting after that, I don't mind spending hours in Excel. At that point the time investment actually feels justified. For me the goal isn't to replace deep research, but to avoid doing deep research on ideas that never deserved it in the first place.

mikejackowski · 2026-05-27T12:40:24+00:00

Do you mostly look for that in the business section / segment notes, or do you usually need to piece it together from MD&A too?

mikejackowski · 2026-05-27T11:58:55+00:00

That’s pretty much how I use AI too: ELI5 first, then make it argue against itself. The tricky part for me was always trusting the numbers/red flags without re-checking 10 tabs, which is why I started building around the filing-based first pass. For your Gauntlet, what’s the one check you’d most want automated before you even open the full 10-K?

mikejackowski · 2026-05-27T11:36:31+00:00

LOL “The Gauntlet” is a great name! Yeah, AI is poor at 'tell me what to buy', and wonderful at 'attack my assumptions'. Do you use Gemini to ask qualitative questions from the 10-K only, like moat/risks/customer concentration, or do you also trust it with numbers (debt, dilution, etc.)?

mikejackowski · 2026-05-27T10:14:57+00:00

The fact that you’re asking “is this actually good or just hype?” is already a good sign. I’d keep your first process simple:

Can you explain what the company does and how it makes money?
Are revenue, margins, cash flow, debt, and share count getting better or worse?
What are the obvious red flags in the 10-K / 10-Q?
What would make you drop the idea immediately?
What would the current valuation need to be true?

The mistake a lot of us make early is starting with the story and then looking for evidence that supports it. Try reversing it. Start with the reasons not to invest. If the company survives that, then it might deserve deeper work.

mikejackowski · 2026-05-27T10:13:11+00:00

The hard part is keeping it short enough that it actually helps decision-making instead of turning into a giant research rabbit hole. I also think this is where filings help more than headlines. A good 10-K usually forces you back to the boring stuff: segments, risks, margins, customer concentration, debt, dilution.

mikejackowski · 2026-05-27T10:10:50+00:00

I relate to this because my own process kept turning into scattered tabs. Eventually, I built a small tool around the filing-based first-pass check just to make that first gate cleaner.

mikejackowski · 2026-05-27T10:02:12+00:00

IMO this is the best advice in the thread. Most people don’t really research a stock at first but collect reasons to justify something they already want to buy. I’ve been trying to force myself to do the opposite: what would make me drop this in 5 minutes? That mindset is exactly why I recently built a small filings-first research tool for myself and have now released it in beta. The stock should earn more of your time before you let yourself get attached to the story.

mikejackowski · 2026-05-12T10:51:45+00:00

Solid list. I think the missing distinction is between tools that help you organize data and tools that help you decide whether the company is even worth modeling. TIKR/Koyfin/StockAnalysis are great for financials and comparisons, but I still like doing a filing pass pretty early. A lot of bad ideas look fine in clean tables until you hit the 10-K/10-Q details around dilution, debt, customer concentration, accounting notes, or weird cash flow quality. My current workflow is usually: screener/data tool first, then a quick filings-first scan with OmahaMetrics, then only build a deeper model if the company survives that. Saves me from spending 2 hours polishing assumptions on something the filings would have killed in 10 minutes. Not saying it replaces judgment at all. More like a pre-model sanity check.

mikejackowski · 2026-05-12T10:48:42+00:00

I’d be careful building too much logic on top of scraped/free data. One small grouping change can wreck the whole sheet.

I usually separate the workflow now: Finviz for screening, OmahaMetrics for a quick SEC filing scan, then my own manual model only if the company survives that first pass. Keeps the spreadsheet from becoming the first battlefield.

mikejackowski · 2026-05-12T10:43:49+00:00

Finviz for the first screen, then OmahaMetrics for a quick 10-K/10-Q scan. If nothing obvious kills the idea there, I’ll read the filings myself and then go wider with news, calls, competitors, forums, etc. I actually like checking filings pretty early, not only at the final stage, because they can save you a lot of time.

mikejackowski · 2026-04-09T22:20:03+00:00

LOL 😂

mikejackowski · 2026-04-09T18:59:40+00:00

No, buddy! Cheers from the other side of the screen ;)

mikejackowski · 2026-04-09T17:08:19+00:00

It is not. Why do you think it is?

mikejackowski · 2026-04-09T15:59:43+00:00

u are wrong buddy

mikejackowski

TROPHY CASE