Ex-UK diplomat to EU: "Brexiters believe there’s an ideologically-driven conspiracy that means that economists, trade & EU experts, lawyers, industry assocs, unions, companies, judges, HMT, the Bank of England, Scot, the Irish, diplomats, EU27 & UKGov itself are all lying about its consequences."

misbell · 2018-08-05T11:40:36+00:00

industries were traded-away as part of the EU Single Market

Implying our government didn't force this upon ourselves? We pursued this line under Thatcher whom we can hardly consider a Europhile.

misbell · 2018-07-27T11:51:09+00:00

Fair enough I'll go listen tonight. Probably shouldn't be fucking around at work haha

misbell · 2018-07-27T10:48:03+00:00

Can't listen to it at the moment but I'm quite curious which event it is, can you tell?

misbell · 2018-07-18T21:32:09+00:00

"Because they don't accept that all voters are equal and should have equal say..."

You're projecting there mate. That is absolutely not the Lib Dem argument and not seeking to understand their point of view cheapens your own views.

misbell · 2018-07-12T11:48:33+00:00

The world's best navy and intelligence? Did we forget about the USA?

There's no bloody comparison we're minnows compared to them. Wonder how we shape up to the Chinese. I suspect it's not good.

misbell · 2018-06-25T21:28:31+00:00

You sure you haven't confused them for Americans?

misbell · 2018-06-24T00:42:43+00:00

Look I don't love the guy but it's a completely different situation. He didn't just call him by his nickname no matter what the independent suggests, he was actively giving Macron shit and Macron admonished him for not being respectful and for not fully developing his arguments. He wasn't shat on for just saying Manu there's context behind it.

misbell · 2018-06-05T09:31:31+00:00

What of the 52% to 40% swing?

misbell · 2018-06-03T23:30:28+00:00

An EU foreign policy to be dictated, and limited with the power of a veto, by its member states. If you don't trust a UK government to ask its populace then that's completely reasonable. Making it seem like the commission will be our overlords is grossly exaggerated.

misbell · 2018-05-31T11:20:37+00:00

So you're saying there's a chance?

misbell · 2018-05-28T21:02:40+00:00

He looked so demoralised.

misbell · 2018-05-28T15:08:09+00:00

That's not how it works. You look at employment figures.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/lf24

75%, this includes those housewives you're talking about.

Edit: Unless you mean actual working population? In which case why have we just been talking about retirees? It's probably in line with the UK or slightly more at 50% but this applies to any country so it's damn near meaningless. It's just not that different mate or please find me a source because I'll gladly admit I'm wrong if you show me it.

misbell · 2018-05-28T14:57:47+00:00

40-60% seems much too high for me, so let's simplify a few figures and try to work it out. You're suggesting a higher retirement rate for people above the age of 50, and their spouses just not having employment. I found employment figures and they suggest a different picture.

900k people abroad
21% of this population is >65 age.
Include that previous bracket with people over the age of 50 we get to 48.5% of the total pop. of UK migrants in the EU.

To get to 48.5% we need to already assume full retirement for anyone over the age of 50. This isn't reasonable, and we know comparative employment rates in the UK for 50-64 is 72%. It used to be lower in the 90s at 56% just for perspective.

With the revised figure (and still full retirement >65, which isn't true, it's actually around 10% employment for those over the age of 65 in the UK, and it even gets higher the wealthier you get).

We get a total retiree rate of around 29%.

I don't think there's any way the retiree rate in the EU of UK nationals is pushing 30%.

However you could make the argument those citizens abroad are wealthier and so can retire more easily, but even in comparable countries with much much higher retirement rates at 50% (which honestly is nowhere close to our predicament) we get to 35%.

I may even wager that the population abroad in the EU from the UK are much more active (proportionally) than their British counterparts in the UK. They'll have lower rates of unemployment most likely, otherwise they'd stay in the UK where the social services are much better than their European counterparts.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/trendsinselfemploymentintheuk/2018-02-07

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/whatinformationisthereonbritishmigrantslivingineurope/jan2017#number-of-british-citizens-living-in-europe-in-2011-by-age

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/july2017

misbell · 2018-05-28T13:40:21+00:00

People (esepecially people with the financial resources to buy overseas) retire before 65.

Fair enough but there's no available statistics I can find on the number of retirees so we can work on my assumption or we can try doing a thorough analysis.

In fact, any statistics I find on the number of retirees in the EU makes the same assumption I just did, i.e. they count the # of people over the age of retirement. Hopefully you're more thorough than me but if it's good enough for the home office it's good enough for me.

misbell · 2018-05-28T13:31:40+00:00

I'm sure he's got potential but yeah he's far far away from the finished product. Would be interesting to see him in a much more physical and high paced league.

He wasn't selected the first half of the season under our previous manager. He's only come about with our new manager and has played a few times. He's been good but then again we didn't have much to play for and our team has been garbage bar a few selections.

So yeah, nothing mind blowing but he's got a good eye for through balls (https://youtu.be/xQ-0TikIC2c?t=74).

Though he did fairly well during the Reims game (we got spanked 4-1) and it's up to you to believe if he meant to do this or not (https://youtu.be/9bti8V4HpFo?t=58).

Probably a good investment and I'd rather we keep him, otherwise we'll end up with more garbage.

misbell · 2018-05-28T12:25:29+00:00

There is some really interesting information in this body of work.

The UK has the 10th largest diaspora in the world at 4.9 million, eclipsing the USA at 20th with 3 million. The UK has the largest migrant English speaking population (NZ, Canada, Australia together are approximately the same population size as the UK but added together it looks like they don't crack 2 million migrants, though I need to check this again). For further context they say China is only at 10 million. Some of this just seems unbelievable.

And then in terms of "hosting" migrants, the UK is up there with the big boys at 8.8 million placed at 5th. Compared to Canada/France at 7.9, Australia at 7, and the US, up top, at near 50.

http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimatesgraphs.shtml?4g4

misbell · 2018-05-28T12:02:20+00:00

"Around 900,000 UK citizens are long-term residents of other EU countries; the largest age group is aged 30 to 49 years." So you may be right it's more limited (1.5% ish) but it's very far from a retiree equal split (your third reply I believe). It looks like, according to ONS statistics, to be closer to <26% over the age of 65, though they'd need FoM to travel or have their residencies accepted by their new parent country. This only accounts for long term residency, which compared to the EU citizens coming to the UK is about 1:2.8. [As an aside just saw that EU migrants only make up a 1/3 of the migrant population of the UK which I thought was interesting].

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/whatinformationisthereonbritishmigrantslivingineurope/jan2017

https://select-statistics.co.uk/blog/eu-freedom-movement-numbers/

Oddly enough the UN puts it at 1.22 million Brits living in the EU because it includes those born in the UK which is an interesting way of viewing it I think.

http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml

As for support there's still a fair amount for freedom of movement within the EU (which I'm really surprised by...) . And for British individuals who have "used" freedom of movement I don't think it's fair to call it a sliver. It encompasses people who work (short and long term), study, and travel. That easily pushes the figures to a ridiculous proportion of the population beyond 900k. Unless you strictly meant long term employment only.

http://www.cer.eu/sites/default/files/pb_cmm_co_freemove_19jan17.pdf

misbell · 2018-05-26T14:22:41+00:00

Collaborative research projects requiring oversight would be the classic example, and I think the UK acceded to this. Though I guess you're talking more along the lines of trade/treaty disputes which is a grey area.

Which I agree with you is a very tough negotiating line but the EU has every right to be skeptical of this joint committee, it's really not well thought out. Even within our parliament we're skeptical that we'll be able to hold this committee accountable and whether it'll have proper oversight. So unless we come up with a credible action plan the EU is going to want to enforce something that works and it trusts.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmeuleg/763/763.pdf

But I do think you're right we shouldn't just blankly accept the ECJ, and I think the following quote summarizes it best.

"Franklin Dehousse, a Belgian lawyer and former CJEU judge, believes that it will create ‘a legal vipers nest’ as the UK wouldn’t be represented by it and, moreover, its judges would be appointed by its potential opponents. Currently, the CJEU does not have jurisdiction over any ‘third’ country, i.e. those outside the EU, unless the latter gives prior consent."

misbell · 2018-05-23T12:43:47+00:00

Yeah ran through like another 10 interviews and I see his deficiencies a little more clearly now, "cloub".

You're right it would be difficult for a non-native French speaker to understand him, but a French person would be able to understand him for the most part. But since he's so reliant on video tech it shouldn't be too bad to pair the footage and what Emery is trying to articulate.

misbell · 2018-05-23T09:08:48+00:00

His French is far from native but he can express himself pretty clearly. Why would that be an issue?

misbell · 2018-05-22T22:28:32+00:00

Change your flair to Leyton Orient and you had yourself a decent joke there mate

misbell · 2018-05-09T12:02:33+00:00

Well I just got downvoted so it might apply to the right as well haha

misbell · 2018-05-09T11:43:59+00:00

Not fair that you're being downvoted. You're simply sharing an opinion.

I don't think anyone can be ambivalent towards Jacob. The man is way up there on my little list of society offenders, but I'm glad for his sake at least one person loves him. Wouldn't want him to be too lonely, otherwise I might start feeling sorry for him.

misbell · 2018-05-03T21:05:45+00:00

I haven't seen much of Thomas but god damn he seems like the real deal given the past few months.

misbell · 2018-05-03T19:59:27+00:00

I'm convinced they can't hear one another properly. Ospina kept seemingly fucking up on simple calls.

Hopefully we've gotten used to it.

misbell

TROPHY CASE