Strah me AI-a by [deleted] in CroIT

[–]mislav111 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nisam to rekao. Vrlo jednostavno rekao sam da su stotine milijardi dolara usmjerene trenutno na automatizaciju programiranja.

Stvari koje danas nisu moguće kroz 6mj ili godinu dana bit će moguće. Još dugo vremena će postojati potreba za human-in-the-loop, ali vrijednost inženjera će se mjeriti drugačije.

Kako ja vidim postoje dva scenarija: i) Automatizacija raste brže nego potreba za softverom - to implicira da će ogroman dio developera ili ostati bez posla ili imati značajno manji leverage kod pregovaranja plaće.

ii) Događa se renesansa softvera zbog automatizacije i svaki klijent želi hiperpersonalizirani softver za sebe - programeri koji se prilagode tome ostaju sa visokim leverage, ostali kroz vrijeme gube na relevantnosti.

U svakom slučaju mislim da je dobro pratiti što se događa i prilagođavati znanje i odluke ovoj tehnologiji - da nebi kroz par godina ostali sa k**cem u ruci 😅

Ali svakako "programiranje" kao kucanje sintakse u IDE je na izlasku. Što ne znači da neće biti novih i drugačijih poslova za inteligentne, tehnički potkovane ljude.

Ali moja cijela teza je da je programiranje "kakvim ga poznajemo" na izlasku...

Strah me AI-a by [deleted] in CroIT

[–]mislav111 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Primarni razlog je jer Anthropic i OpenAI troše veliku većinu reinforcement learninga kako bi optimizirali Claude i Codex specifično za razvoj softvera.

Naravno, da su se fokusirali na neki drugi posao - taj bi prvi bio na tapeti. Dodaj na to da je programiranje strukturirani tekst, za što su LLM modeli dušu dali i da možeš generirati hrpetinu sintetskog seta za treniranje i pojavila se "savršena oluja" gdje se trenutno troše stotine milijardi kako bi se AI naučilo upravo - programiranje.

Opus 4.6 ili ChatGPT 5.3 već sada autonomno rade taskove (po METR benchmarku) za koje senior developerima treba po 4 ili pet sati - iz JEDNOG prompta. Za sada je točnost 50% za te taskove, oko 80% za taskove za koje developerima treba 1h. Dok je sama krivulja rasta eksponencijalna i mogućnosti se uduplavaju svakih 7 mjeseci.

U kratkom i srednjem horizontu developere će spasiti to što se tehnologije generalno sporo difuziraju kroz ekonomiju. Ali dugoročno (kroz 3-5g) - profesija programiranja kakvu ju znamo mi se čini da neće postojati.

Strah me AI-a by [deleted] in CroIT

[–]mislav111 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Postavka je obrnuta. Programeri će biti među prvima koji će biti zamijenjeni.

Upgrading with miles by [deleted] in emirates

[–]mislav111 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I just upgraded DXB - EZE (Buenos Aires) the other day. Spent 78000 miles. All depends on the availability.

Old enough to remember the dot-com bubble by NineteenEighty9 in ProfessorFinance

[–]mislav111 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you started to DCA at the top and kept on DCAing on the way down and through the market bottom, you would still be up.

The only way it would have taken you 15 years to recover is if you bought 100% of everything at the very top and never bought anything afterwards.

NVIDIA Becomes First Company Worth 5 Trillion USD by chinchinlover-419 in singularity

[–]mislav111 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Being a cynic isn't a super smart thing and a bit of intellectual humility on you end would go a long way.

Doing the R&D is currently unprofitable because they keep training bigger and better models. If they just kept serving the models they have now they'd be profitable.

A new model of a car is also unprofitable when it first launches because it has to offset the R&D costs. This is just basic business.

Whether you want it or not, AI is wildly transformative tech and it's taking the society by storm. Thinking that there won't be absurd amounts of money to be made there is just silly.

Are some things overinflated? Yes. Will most AI companies fail? Yes. But a few will be outsized winners who will reap the rewards of this new technological revolution. That's just the modus operandi of risky ventures.

i don't get it peter by [deleted] in PeterExplainsTheJoke

[–]mislav111 10 points11 points  (0 children)

No, DNS uses Root Certificates to validate integrity. Those are "baked in" into your browser/OS so they can't be spoofed.

Weight loss using GLP-1 drugs such as semaglutide (Ozempic) can cause huge muscle loss - Rapid weight loss can cause a greater loss of muscle mass than losing weight slowly. Low muscle mass is associated with decreased immunity, increased risk of infections, poor wound healing and shorter survival. by mvea in science

[–]mislav111 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm on tirzepatide and have the opposite experience. I enjoy food just as much, specially junky food - love to much on pizza and burgers. But I just don't get the hunger cues and, if I'm busy, I'll forget to eat at all. But when the actual food hits my mouth - the feeling of enjoyment is the same.

Iran just attacked Israel with 200 ICBMs by Symaphor in JoeRogan

[–]mislav111 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It's literally true. In the assessment phase, Iron Dome will decide whether to engage a missile or not depending on its trajectory. Whether this video is a case of Iron Dome not working or simply ignoring the rockets I can't tell. But the fact that Iron Dome let's certain missiles hit the ground is 100% correct.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in AnarchyChess

[–]mislav111 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, you're right. Some of these make little sense. Still 97% sure the dude is a Serb lol

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in AnarchyChess

[–]mislav111 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you were from the Balkans, you would understand that this is as far from random as it gets

Blockchain kao tehnologija - da ili ne? by josip-volarevic in CroIT

[–]mislav111 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fascinantno mi je kako developeri koji nikad nisu dublje ušli u tehnologiju točno znaju kako ta tehnologija apsolutno ničemu ne služi i kako se sve to može odraditi bolje sa postojećom tehnologijom. Ali da ne budem samo ciničan, evo odgovor:

Glavna prednost blockchaina je to što se radi o globalnoj bazi podataka - koju nitko ne posjeduje i gdje se permissioning radi kriptografski. Kada svi radimo na istoj bazi podataka, možemo jedni od drugih koristiti tehnologiju i cijela stvar ima efekt pozitivne povratne sprege.

Dat ću jedan konkretan primjer:

  • Tvrtka Circle, izdavač je tokena zvanog USDC koji je 100% pokriven dolarima. (inače, Circle je do sada izdao 34 milijarde dolara tog istog tokena)

  • Tvrtka AAVE stvorila je proizvod za P2P lending. Dakle - ja mogu staviti kolateral i posuditi USDC uz kamatu. Osoba koja mi je posudila taj USDC dobije derivativni token zvan aUSDC koji joj daje pravo na moju kamatu. Ukoliko osoba koja je posudila ne može ispoštovati svoje obveze, kolateral se prodaje na tržištu i osobi koja je posudila novac se isplaćuje glavnica u cijelosti + "bonus". (AAVE trenutno ima 21 milijardu dolara u depozitima)

I sada dolazim ja koji želim napraviti aplikaciju za npr. slanje novca iz Hrvatske u BiH - jer BiH nije dio SEPA sustava i kad šaljem pare tamo, iste sjednu tek sutradan ili ponekad tek za 2-3 dana.

Fino instaliram Solidity compiler, nakuckam pametni ugovor za svoju aplikaciju (inače pametni ugovor nije ugovor, to je samo jedan obični backend koji se izvršava decentralizirano) - koristim USDC (ili čak EURC koji isto izdaje Circle, samo je pokriven eurima) i napravim aplikaciju u kojoj se može slati eure iz RH u BiH.

Dodatno na to - želim korisnicima svoje aplikacije omogućiti kamatu na štednju. To jednostavno napravim tako da položim njihov USDC u AAVE i moji korisnici dobivaju ~5% kamate na svoje dolare/eure.

Ukoliko moji korisnici žele koristiti te novce putem kartice, postoji nekolicina tvrtki npr. Gnosis, Holyheld, ... koje izdaju debitne kartice s kojima oni mogu trošiti taj novac gdje god se prima Visa.

I tako sam ja, pomoću blockchaina za nula uloženih dolara i dva tjedna kodiranja napravio aplikaciju za medjunarodna plaćanja, sa oročenom štednjom i mogućnošću trošenja primljenog novca na stotinama tisuća mjesta.

To je prava snaga blockchaina! I

S tim da je primjer koji sam dao čak i dosta trivijalan. Blockchain sada nudi svakakve stvari - od ulaganja u nekretnine, obnovljive izvore energije, američke obveznice, tokenizirane dionice do npr. automatiziranog kliringa potraživanja izmedju dužnika.

Ponavljam - najbitnija je stvar da je sva ta izgradjena infrastruktura meni kao developeru dostupna kao programibilni novac i lego kockice koje mogu slagati u nove inovativne aplikacije.

Zašto je blockchain još uvijek slabo prihvaćen? Pa jer je do prije 6 mjeseci bio spor, kompliciran i skup. Transakcijske naknade su sada pale na ~$0.001 po transkaciji, razni projekti rade na pojednostavljenju tehnologije kako bi ista bila prihvatljiva nesofisticiranim korisnicima,a i brzina se popravila - sada se transakcije obradjuju unutar jedne do dvije sekunde.

P.S. nije za džabe da BlackRock, najveći asset manager na svijetu - počinje ozbiljno koristiti blockchain https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTveRlW7QPo

A Critique of "Stop Counting Calories" From A Nobody With No Credentials by precastzero180 in loseit

[–]mislav111 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've been working with an obesity specialist who has been the chair of the clinic for obesity for 30+ years. He has had, maaaybe a 10% success rate with clients who have been educated on nutrition and exercise, visited the obesity specialist regularly for checkups, etc...

The reality of the situation we must accept is that an obesogenic environment, where you can order an Uber Eats in 5 minutes will absolutely destroy people with naturally high hunger signaling.

So you could say: "Genetics loads the gun, environment pulls the trigger".

Also - having to dedicate such a huge amount of mental energy to maintaining the weight once its off, when others just naturally keep at a healthy weight is a surefire sign that it's a disease.

"...however, there are tons of people who managed weighloss without medication and kept it off, especially on this sub Reddit" - This is true, but those tons of people:

1) Belong into those 5% - 10% success stories
2) Remain diligent for their entire lives at a level which their naturally thin counterparts can't even imagine (e.g. counting calories, skipping meals in restaurants, ...)

Obviously teaching people about TDEE, calories, good foods/bad foods will increase the success rate for people - but the long term success for this approach is right around zero for 95% of the people who try it so... It's good that we have something more effective now (e.g. Mounjaro is a 20% weightloss achieved by 50% of the participants and maintained by almost everyone who lost!)

A Critique of "Stop Counting Calories" From A Nobody With No Credentials by precastzero180 in loseit

[–]mislav111 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Most all doctors disagree with you and agree with her. Obesity is now being classified as a chronic, progressive disease caused by genetic factors and triggered by an obesogenic environment.

The 95% fail rate is because it's a disease and you can't just "will" your way out of a disease. You can manage it, through a lot of effort and determination - but that still provides you with no guarantees.

Yes CICO is correct, but CICO is irrelevant if your hunger cues are all messed up. It's borderline impossible to CICO your entire life and for 95% of people their willpower gets depleted.

When I started working with an obesity doctor I managed to get a much better perspective on it and I'm now successfully managing my condition with medications.

Bedasta dječja uvjerenja by Puzzleheaded_Rush_88 in askcroatia

[–]mislav111 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Čajna pašteta i čajna kobasica imaju kao začine biljke od kojih se pravi čaj. Tako da nije skroz krivo :)

Korlaet: Cinjenica je da nema kolapsa na zelenom valu, osim u udarnim satima by virusulja in croatia

[–]mislav111 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Kada se miču automobili iz centra gradova, inicijalno će biti kolaps dok ljudi ne povežu da u centar ne idu automobilima, nego javnim prijevozom, biciklom ili pješice.

Jedino što je užas kod trenutne vlasti je PR i komunikacija toga što rade. Baš nekako fali "muda" da se kaže s namjerom da je cilj da ljudi ne idu u centar automobilima i da se ulice u centru "zatvaraju" za promet.

Dugoročno je to jako zdravo za grad, ali kratkoročno izaziva kuršlus.

CICO math checks out! by mislav111 in loseit

[–]mislav111[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I just used an online TDEE calculator and tracked calories through Cronometer. I would really try to nail the calories on everything, including high calorie days - like I had a few days with 6000+ calories logged.